longrangerainfallforecastsfornewzealand

LONG-RANGE RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR NEW ZEALAND

"... for He makes his sun to rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the just and on the unjust".

Matthew 5:45

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The long-range rainfall forecasts for selected places in New Zealand for the period Summer 2011/12 to Autumn 2013 are shown below. The rainfalls are expressed in terms of percentiles, where, for example, the value 50 indicates that the rainfall is expected to be near average, a value such as 60 indicates that the rainfall is likely to be more than average, and a value such as 40 indicates that the rainfall is likely to be less than average. The higher the value, the more likely it is that it will be wetter than average, and the lower the value the more likely it is that it will dryer than average. The values shown are the values for the three monthly periods March/April/May (shown as Autumn), June/July/August (shown as Winter), September/October/November (shown as Spring), and December/January/February (shown as Summer). For further information please contact Dr John Maunder at climate@ihug.co.nz

NOTE: These forecasts are no longer being provided on this web page. For further information and where to obtain further forecasts in the format set out below please contact Dr John Maunder at climate@ihug.co.nz.

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Forecasts as issued on 23 November 2011

Tauranga Turangi New Plymouth Hokitika Queenstown Milford Sd

AS FORECAST ON November 23, 2011

Summer 2011/12 60 38 50 40 42 50

Autumn 2012 73 48 50 46 48 58

Winter 2012 64 52 53 51 52 57

Spring 2012 48 53 43 48 48 48

Summer 2012/13 61 64 54 58 69 60

Autumn 2013 54 63 66 64 64 60

IMPORTANT NOTE: These rainfall forecasts are based on the analysis of the historical relationships between the rainfalls at the selected places and the value of the Southern Oscillation Index, sunspot activity, and sea-surface temperatures. Forecasts of these values are made, and used in the climate models that have been developed using the historical relationships to make the rainfall forecasts. This predictive information should be used with caution and potential users should expect only modest skill. More detailed information is available on request.