LONG-RANGE RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR NEW ZEALAND
 
 
 
 
 
"... for He makes his sun to rise on the evil and on the good, and sends  rain on the just and on the unjust".
 
Matthew 5:45
 
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The long-range rainfall forecasts for selected places in  New Zealand for the period Summer 2011/12 to Autumn 2013  are shown below.  The rainfalls are expressed in terms of percentiles, where, for example, the value 50 indicates that the rainfall is expected to be near average, a value such as 60 indicates that the rainfall is likely to be more than average, and a value such as 40 indicates that the rainfall is likely to be less than average. The higher the value, the more likely it is that it will be wetter than average, and the lower the value the more likely it is that it will dryer than average. The values shown are the values for the three monthly periods March/April/May (shown as Autumn), June/July/August (shown as Winter), September/October/November (shown as Spring), and December/January/February (shown as Summer). For further information please contact Dr John Maunder at climate@ihug.co.nz
 
 
NOTE: These forecasts are no longer being provided on this web page. For further information and where to obtain further forecasts in the format set out below please contact Dr John Maunder at climate@ihug.co.nz.
 
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Forecasts as issued on 23 November 2011 
 

                        Tauranga Turangi  New Plymouth Hokitika Queenstown  Milford  Sd      

 
AS FORECAST ON November 23, 2011
 
 
 
Summer  2011/12    60            38               50           40            42         50
 
Autumn   2012        73            48               50           46             48         58
 
Winter     2012        64            52               53           51             52         57 
 
Spring      2012       48            53               43           48             48         48   
 
Summer    2012/13  61           64                54           58             69        60 
 
Autumn     2013      54           63                66           64              64        60 
 
IMPORTANT NOTE: These rainfall forecasts are based on the analysis of the historical relationships between the rainfalls at the selected places and the value of the Southern Oscillation Index, sunspot activity, and sea-surface temperatures. Forecasts of these values are made, and used in the climate models that have been developed using the historical relationships to make the rainfall forecasts. This predictive information should be used with caution and potential users should expect only modest skill. More detailed information is available on request.