Jerker Denrell

Professor of Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

I am Professor of Behavioral Science at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick and I was previously Professor of Strategy and Decision Making at University of Oxford and Associate Professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business. During the academic year 2017-2018 I was visiting Professor at Sloan School of Management, MIT, teaching courses in decision-making, economics, and modelling.  

 My research examines the implications of learning and information search for understanding mistaken beliefs and inequality. I have explored how learning, sampling, and chance mechanisms can offer novel explanations of persistent performance differences, existence of strategic opportunities, risk-return associations, and provide new interpretations of in-group bias and conformity. 

My research on learning and sampling mechanisms has shown how individuals and managers might develop and maintain inaccurate beliefs because they rely on the biased samples of information they obtain from their experiences. In a series of five papers published in Psychological Review during the last ten years I have shown how a simple learning mechanism - the Hot Stove Effect - can offer novel interpretations of discrimination, ingroup-bias, social influence, and risk aversion (Denrell, 2015, 2007, 2005; Denrell and Le Mens, 2007; Le Mens and Denrell, 2011). I have shown how these biases can emerge from the biased set of experiences people are exposed to instead of from cognitive limitations of human learners. The key idea is that the tendency to avoid alternatives with unfavourable past outcomes generates a biased set of experiences.  Recently Gael and me showed how this mechanism can rational decision-makers to favor alternatives  with initially high payoffs that decrease with practice,  generating a rational "competency trap" (Denrell and Le Mens, Industrial and Corporate Change, 2020). 

 My work on performance dynamics in strategy has explored the implications of learning and chance mechanisms for the interpretation of persistent performance and the diffusion of best practice. In a series of papers I have shown that high and sustained performers can be an indicator of risky and inefficient practices. For example, in Denrell and Liu (PNAS, 2012) we show that rich-get-rich processes imply that the highest performers in fact are not the best (do not have the highest expected skill). The intuition is that extreme performance indicates the presence of strong rich-get-rich dynamics rather than exceptional skill. Persistent high performance can therefore be an indicator of inferior capabilities; a topic that we explore empirically in Denrell, Fang, and Zhao (Strategic Management Journal, 2013). In a recent paper we have shown how  reinforcing processes can generate a 'dip' in the association between outcomes (i.e., performance) and quality (forthcoming,  Organization Science).

An important theme in my research is how randomness at the micro-level can give rise to patterns at the aggregate level which can offer parsimonious explanations of many regularities in strategic management and organization theory. For example, in Denrell (2004, Management Science) I proposed that a random walk model could account for much of the empirically observed persistence in performance. In Denrell and Kovacs (2008, Administrative Science Quarterly), we show how the common practice of studying only widely diffused practices and relatively large and successful industries can lead to spurious findings such as spurious non-monotonic density dependence. A survey of this line of research was published in Organization Science, 2015.

My Erdös number is 5 (via James March and Herbert Simon)

Address:   Warwick Business School

                      University of Warwick

                      Coventry, CV4 7AL

Phone:       +44 (0)24 7652 4306

Email:        jdenrell at gmail dot com 

Publications

1. Christensen, M, Denrell, J, Knudsen, T, and C. Liu. (2025). The Impact of Learning Modes and Learning Speeds on Mutual Learning. Forthcoming, Academy of  Management Review.

2. Denrell, J ., Marengo, L., Romagnoli, M., and A. Zeijen. (2025) "Absolute, Average-based, and Rank-based Aspirations".  Forthcoming, Strategic Management Journal.

3. Denrell, J ., Sanborn, A., and J. Spicer. (2024). “Learning from Missing Feedback: Exemplar Versus Model-Based Methods”. Forthcoming, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition.

4. Denrell, J. Liu, C, and Maslach, D. (2023) "Underdogs and One-hit Wonders: When is Overcoming Adversity Impressive? "  Management Science, 69(9): 5461–5481 

5. Denrell, J., C. and C. Liu (2021). ”When Reinforcing Processes Generate an Outcome-Quality Dip.” Organization Science, 32 (4): 1079-1099

6. Rahmandad, H, Denrell, J., C. and D. Prelec (2020). "What makes dynamic strategic problems difficult? Evidence from an experimental study." Strategic Management Journal, 42 (5), 865-897

7. Denrell, J., C. and B. Kovacs (2020). ”The Ecology of Management Concepts” Strategy Science, 5(4): 293-310. .

8. Denrell, J. and G. Le Mens (2020). ”Revisiting the Competency Trap”. Industrial and Corporate Change, 29 (1), 183-205.

9. Denrell, J., C. Fang, and C. Liu (2019). ”In Search of Behavioral Opportunities from Misattributions of Luck.” Academy of Management Review, 44 (4), 896-905.

10. Le Mens, G., J. Denrell, B. Kovacs, & H. Karaman. (2018). ”Information Sampling, Judgment, and the Environment: Application to the Effect of Popularity on Evaluation.” Topics in Cognitive Science,  11 (2), 358-373. .

11. Denrell, J., Liu, C., and G. Le Mens (2017). When More Selection is Worse. Strategy Science, 2(1): 39-63.

12. Liu, C., Vlaev, I, Fang, C., Denrell, J., & Chater, N. (2017). Strategizing with biases: Engineering choice contexts for better decisions using Mindspace approach. California Management Review , 59(3): 135-161.

13. Denrell, J. and G. Le Mens. (2017). Information Sampling, Belief Synchronization and Collective Illusions, Management Science, 63(2): 528-547.

14. Denrell, J. (2015) "Reference Dependent Risk Sensitivity as Rational Inference." Psychological Review,  122 (3), 461-484.

15. Denrell, J., C. Fang. and C. Liu (2015). "Chance Explanations in the Management Sciences." Organization Science, 26(3): 923-940.

16. Denrell, J. and B. Kovacs (2015). “The Effect of Selection Bias in Studies of Fads and Fashions,” PLoS ONE 10(4): e0123471. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0123471.

17. Denrell, J., C. Fang. and Z. Zhao (2013). "Inferring Superior Capabilities from Sustained Superior Performance: A Bayesian Analysis." Strategic Management Journal, 34(2): 182-196.

18. Denrell, J. and C. Liu (2012). “Top performers are not the most impressive when extreme performance indicates unreliability.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (24): 9331-9336.

19. Denrell, J. (2012). Mechanisms Generating Context Dependent Choices, Research in the Sociology of Organizations, 36, 65-97. 

20. Le Mens, G. and Denrell, J.  (2011). “Rational Learning and Information Sampling: On the ‘Naivety’ Assumption in Sampling Explanations of Judgment Biases." Psychological Review, 118 (2): 379-392.

21. Denrell, J. and G. Le Mens (2011). “Seeking Positive Experiences Can Produce Illusory Correlations”. Cognition, 119: 313-324.

22. Denrell, J. and C. Fang (2010). “Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment.” Management Science, 56(10): 1653-1667.

23. Denrell, J. and Z. Shapira (2009). “Performance Sampling and Bimodal Duration Dependence.” Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 33: 66-91. 

24. Denrell, J. (2008). Perspective: Indirect Social Influence. Science, 321 (July 4): 47-48. 

25. Denrell, J. and B. Kovacs (2008). “Selective Sampling of Empirical Settings in Organizational Studies.” Administrative Science Quarterly, 53 (March): 109-144. 

26. Denrell, J. (2008). “Organizational Risk Taking: Adaptation versus Variable Risk Preferences.” Industrial and Corporate Change, 17 (3): 427-466. 

27. Denrell, J. and G. Le Mens (2007). “Interdependent Sampling and Social Influence.” Psychological Review, 114 (2): 398-422. 

28. Andersen, T, J. Denrell, and R. Bettis (2007). “Strategic Responsiveness and Bowman’s Risk-Return Paradox.” Strategic Management Journal, 28(4), 407-429. 

29. Denrell, J. (2007). “Adaptive Learning and Risk Taking.” Psychological Review, 114 (1): 177-187. 

30. Denrell, J. (2005). “Why Most People Disapprove of Me: Experience Sampling in Impression Formation”. Psychological Review, 112 (4), 951-978. 

31. Denrell, J. (2005). “Selection Bias and the Perils of Benchmarking”. Harvard Business Review, April, 2005, 114-119.

32. Denrell, J. (2005). “Should We Be Impressed with High Performance?” Journal of Management Inquiry, 14 (3), 292-298. 

33. Denrell, J. (2004). “The Performance of Performance,” Journal of Management and Governance, 8 (4), 345-349. 

34. Denrell, J, Arvidsson, N., and U. Zander (2004). “Managing Knowledge in the Dark: An Empirical Examination of the Reliability of Competency Evaluations.” Management Science, 50 (11), 1491-1503. 

35. Denrell, J., C. Fang, and D. Levinthal (2004).“From T-Mazes to Labyrinths: Learning from Model-Based Feedback.” Management Science, 50 (10), 1366-1378. 

36. Denrell, J. (2004). “Random Walks and Sustained Competitive Advantage.” Management Science, 50 (7): 922-934. 

37. Denrell, J., C. Fang, and S. Winter (2003). “The Economics of Strategic Opportunity.” Strategic Management Journal, 24 (10): 977-990. 

38. Denrell, J. (2003). “Vicarious Learning, Under-Sampling of Failure, and the Myths of Management,” Organization Science, 14 (3): 227-243. (Lead Article). 

39. Denrell, J. and J. G. March (2001). “Adaptation as Information Restriction: The Hot Stove Effect,” Organization Science, 12 (5): 523-538. (Lead Article). 

40. Denrell, J. (2000). “Radical Organization Theory: An Incomplete Contract Approach to Power and Organizational Design,” Rationality and Society, 12: 39-61.