research
Working papers
"Nominal Exchange Rate Variability, Nominal Wage Rigidity, and the Pattern of Trade."
Midwest International Trade Meeting in Bloomington, Jun 2019.
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in Xiamen, Jun 2019.
"Cost of Price Rigidity under Trend Inflation: Evidence from International Trade" (The title of the presentation may differ.)
European Trade Study Group Conference in Warsaw, Sep 2018.
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society in St. Louis, Jun 2017.
Midwest International Trade Meeting in Lexington, May 2017.
"Development Accounting and International Trade"
Current version (August 2015, ISER discussion paper, No. 944)
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in Kyoto, Aug 2016.
Midwest International Trade Meeting in Columbus, Apr 2015.
Highlights: TFP measurement depends on trade, geography, trade policy, and general equilibrium effects.
I conduct development accounting which incorporates Ricardian international trade.
Standard development accounting overestimates technology difference by 30%.
Gains from trade are larger for small countries.
Geography changes welfare up to 20%, and trade policies change welfare up to 10%.
These gains from trade are considerably smaller if general equilibrium effects are not considered.
"Trade Costs and Business Cycle Transmission in a Multi-country, Multi-sector Model"
Appendix
Highlights: Trade cost shock is important for explaining cross-country business cycle facts.
Trade costs fluctuate a lot over time.
I introduce trade cost shocks to a multi-country, multi-sector business cycle model.
The model replicates key trade and business cycle facts.
Trade cost shocks help to account for the association between bilateral trade and comovement.
"The World Has More Than Two Countries: Implications of Multi-Country International Real Business Cycle Models"
2009 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society
Slides (Jun 2009)
Appendix
Highlights: Popular two-country models miss an important mechanism of determining cross-country correlations.
A positive productivity shock in one country will stimulate investment in the country that has experienced the shock.
It reduces internal investment in the other countries, which will then simultaneously experience a slump.
Cross-country correlations of international real business cycle models depend critically on the number of countries in the models.
Published and forthcoming papers
"Optimal Long-run Inflation in an Open-economy," European Economic Review, Sep 2022, 148: 104223.
Published open-access paper (Sep 2022)
Title revised. The title of the presentation may differ.
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in Hong Kong, Jun 2017.
Highlights: Long-run inflation rate may alter the terms of trade.
A model with trade implies that the optimal rate is positive under certain conditions.
Welfare gains come from manipulations of the terms of trade.
Welfare gains are hence associated with the loss of the trade partner.
If the partner counter-acts, the allocation can be worse than what would occur under autarky.
"Capital Heterogeneity as a Source of Comparative Advantage: Putty-Clay Technology in a Ricardian Model", Journal of International Economics, Mar 2016, 99: 223-236.
Published version (Nov 2015)
Working paper version (July 2015, ISER discussion paper, No. 940)
Previous title: "Investment Uncertainty, Capacity Constraint, and International Trade: Putty-Clay in a Ricardian Model"
Highlights: Heterogeneity in capital goods is a source of comparative advantage.
Larger variation in capital goods leads to higher industry-level productivity.
Cross-country industry-level data shows heterogeneity-based comparative advantage.
A model with fixed cost describes sorting among capital goods.
The most productive production units export, the moderately serve domestic market, and the least do not operate.
"Trade in Polarized America: the Border Effect between Red States and Blue States" (with Miwa Matsuo), Economic Inquiry, Jul 2015, 53(3): 1647-1670.
Published version (Dec 2014)
Highlights: Red and Blue states in the U.S. are de facto trade block.
We estimate a "border" effect between Red and Blue states in the U.S.
A significant border effect is found for 2000s, while not for 1990s.
The effect appears mainly for consumption goods, not heavy manufacturing products.
"U.S.-Canada Border Effect between 1993 and 2007: Smaller, Less Asymmetrical, and Declining" (with Miwa Matsuo), Review of World Economics, May 2015, 151(2): 291-308.
Published version (Mar 2015)
Highlights: The U.S.-Canada border effect is dissolving.
We reexamine the U.S.-Canada border effect puzzle in terms of methodology and data.
Updated methodology suggests that the border effect in 1993 was 20% smaller than the conventional wisdom.
The border effect declined by 22% between 1993 and 2007.
The magnitude of the asymmetry of the border effect is also found to be smaller and shrunk.
"Inventory-Theoretic Money Demand and Relative Price Dynamics"(with Nao Sudo), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Mar-Apr 2013, 45(2-3): 299-326.
Previous title "Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand, Multiple Goods, and Price Dynamics"
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Discussion Paper, (Bank of Japan, Aug 2008)
A brief review and critique in Economic Logic blog
Highlights: Demand factors affect price response.
We construct a two-goods inventory-theoretic money demand model.
In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of low cash-intensity goods outpaces that of high cash-intensity goods.
In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of durables outpaces that of non-durables.
In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of luxuries outpaces that of necessities.
The model's predictions are consistent with the U.S. data.
"Aggregate Returns to Social Capital: Estimates Based on the Augmented Augmented-Solow Model" (with Yasuyuki Sawada), Journal of Macroeconomics, Sep 2009, 31(3): 376-93.
Earlier working paper version (CIRJE discussion paper, University of Tokyo, Apr 2006)
Data set is uploaded on CIRJE.
Highlights: Aggregate returns of social capital is about 20%.
We calculate aggregate returns of social capital by using the augmented-Solow model.
The estimated output elasticity is about 10%.
The estimated annual depreciation rate is about 10%.
The aggregate return is higher for developing countries.
Publication in Japanese
"Kokusai Boueki-ron no Kinnenn no Shinten: Ishitsuteki Kigyou no Boueki Koudou ni Kansuru Riron to Jisshou"
(in Japanese; "A Survey on Recent Theoretical and Empirical International Trade Literature"), 2013, Kinyu Kenkyu 32 (2): 1-61.
Faded projects
"Conventionally Measured Productivity and Underlying True Productivity in the Melitz Model."
I was told by a referee that there is a closely related published paper, so I stopped working on this anymore.