last updated: July 19, 2016

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Hiro Ishise (ISHISE, Hirokazu)

Assistant Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy , Osaka University


Old teaching info

Ph.D. (Economics), Boston University

Curriculum Vitae (Apr 2017): PDF file

Email: ishise@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp

Fields of Interest

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Working papers

  • "Development Accounting and International Trade"
    • Current version (August 2015, ISER discussion paper, No. 944)
    • Highlights: TFP measurement depends on trade, geography, trade policy, and general equilibrium effects.
      • I conduct development accounting which incorporates Ricardian international trade.
      • Standard development accounting overestimates technology difference by 30%.
      • Gains from trade are larger for small countries.
      • Geography changes welfare up to 20%, and trade policies change welfare up to 10%.
      • These gains from trade are considerably smaller if general equilibrium effects are not considered.

  • "Trade Costs and Business Cycle Transmission in a Multi-country, Multi-sector Model"
    • Current version (Nov 2012; First version Nov 2009)
    • Presented in 2010 Econometric Society World Congress
    • Appendix
    • Highlights: Trade cost shock is important for explaining cross-country business cycle facts.
      • Trade costs fluctuate a lot over time.
      • I introduce trade cost shocks to a multi-country, multi-sector busienss cycle model.
      • The model replicates key trade and business cycle facts.
      • Trade cost shocks help to account for the association between bilateral trade and comovement.

  • "The World Has More Than Two Countries: Implications of Multi-Country International Real Business Cycle Models"
    • Current version (Apr 2014; First version Jul 2008)
    • Presented in 2009 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Slides (Jun 2009)
    • Appendix
    • Highlights: Popular two-country models miss an important mechanism of determining cross-country correlations.
      • A positive productivity shock in one country will stimulate investment in the country that has experienced the shock.
      • It reduces internal investment in the other countries, which will then simultaneously experience a slump.
      • Cross-country correlations of international real business cycle models depend critically on the number of countries in the models.

  • Published and forthcoming papers

  • "Capital Heterogeneity as a Source of Comparative Advantage: Putty-Clay Technology in a Ricardian Model", Journal of International Economics, Mar 2016, 99: 223-236.
    • Published version (Nov 2015)
    • Working paper version (July 2015, ISER discussion paper, No. 940)
    • Previous title: "Investment Uncertainty, Capacity Constraint, and International Trade: Putty-Clay in a Ricardian Model"
    • Highlights: Heterogeneity in capital goods is a source of comparative advantage.
      • Larger variation in capital goods leads to higher industry-level productivity.
      • Cross-country industry-level data shows heterogeneity-based comparative advantage.
      • A model with fixed cost describes sorting among capital goods.
      • The most productive production units export, the moderately serve domestic market, and the least do not operate.

  • "Trade in Polarized America: the Border Effect between Red States and Blue States" (with Miwa Matsuo), Economic Inquiry, Jul 2015, 53(3): 1647-1670.
    • Published version (Dec 2014)
    • Working paper version (Oct 2014; First version Apr 2012)
    • Separate appendix
    • Data and codes
    • Highlights: Red and Blue states in the U.S. are de facto trade block.
      • We estimate a "border" effect between Red and Blue states in the U.S.
      • A significant border effect is found for 2000s, while not for 1990s.
      • The effect appears mainly for consumption goods, not heavy manufacturing products.

  • "U.S.-Canada Border Effect between 1993 and 2007: Smaller, Less Asymmetrical, and Declining" (with Miwa Matsuo), Review of World Economics, May 2015, 151(2): 291-308.
    • Published version (Mar 2015)
    • Working paper version (Feb 2014)
    • Highlights: The U.S.-Canada border effect is dissolving.
      • We reexamine the U.S.-Canada border effect puzzle in terms of methodology and data.
      • Updated methodology suggests that the border effect in 1993 was 20% smaller than the conventional wisdom.
      • The border effect declined by 22% between 1993 and 2007.
      • The magnitude of the asymmetry of the border effect is also found to be smaller and shrunk.

  • "Inventory-Theoretic Money Demand and Relative Price Dynamics"(with Nao Sudo), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Mar-Apr 2013, 45(2-3): 299-326.
    • Published version
    • Previous title "Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand, Multiple Goods, and Price Dynamics"
    • Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Discussion Paper, (Bank of Japan, Aug 2008)
    • A brief review and critique in Economic Logic blog
    • Highlights: Demand factors affect price response.
      • We construct a two-goods inventory-theoretic money demand model.
      • In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of low cash-intensity goods outpaces that of high cash-intensity goods.
      • In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of durables outpaces that of non-durables.
      • In a monetary contraction, the decline in the prices of luxuries outpaces that of necessities.
      • The model's predictions are consistent with the U.S. data.

  • "Aggregate Returns to Social Capital: Estimates Based on the Augmented Augmented-Solow Model" (with Yasuyuki Sawada), Journal of Macroeconomics, Sep 2009, 31(3): 376-93.
    • Published version
    • Earlier working paper version (CIRJE discussion paper, University of Tokyo, Apr 2006)
    • Data set is uploaded on CIRJE.
    • Highlights: Aggregate returns of social capital is about 20%.
      • We calculate aggregate returns of social capital by using the augmented-Solow model.
      • The estimated output elasticity is about 10%.
      • The estimated annual depreciation rate is about 10%.
      • The aggregate return is higher for developing countries.

    Publication in Japanese

  • "Kokusai Boueki-ron no Kinnenn no Shinten: Ishitsuteki Kigyou no Boueki Koudou ni Kansuru Riron to Jisshou"
         (in Japanese; "A Survey on Recent Theoretical and Empirical International Trade Literature"), 2013, Kinyu Kenkyu 32 (2): 1-61.