Comments by President of FTDNA on STRs and haplogroup prediction
Audio interview with Bennett Greenspan, Founder of FTDNA
Audio interview with Bennett Greenspan, Founder of FTDNA, April 2011
Paraphrased by Doug Phelps, 5/2012 (Please offer corrections). SNP and STR comments were interwoven, so beware of which he is discussing.
YDNA STRs are to be used for genealogy, SNPs for anthropology.
STRs can stay the same for 100s or 1000s of years. There is “always little bit of grey” because they can mutate up and back. (I tend to emphasize the larger amount of black and white.)
Not too long in future, they will be able to do “geographical specificity” using snps
FDNATip: They used actual testees and their genealogy to develop SR mutation rates. He is comfortable predicting up to 24 generations(the TIP limit) or up to around 500-600 years . Beyond that they are not confident due to mutations going up and back . Some other on the internet (including reverse engineering of their algorithms) are predicting 1000-2000 years or more which he said makes no mathematical sense.
On rumors and internet comments about faster mutation rates – about 33 minutes in: He says they should present their data to be reviewed. He challenged them to invest in studies. They do not agree with currently offered changes. Also said if actual studies were done and revealed, the “100 schools of thought” could debate.
He said SNPs only enlarge/increase in number not reduce - - unlike STRs. .
He discussed companies which do SNP chips and also FamilyFinder tests. Mentioned some groups may be ahead of the scientists (I think that was the comment) but in general I could not determine if that was a compliment
He discussed Walk-the-Y and 67 marker clusters of kits who benefit by it – finding a SNP for themselves. He mentioned one R1b subhap that found a very recent or “terminal” SNP, L193, scroll down. It is considered to be only 800-1200 years old. He did not indicatehow they dated it.
He discussed future testing possibilities with 111 probably the largest ydna test.