Commissioner's odds

Most years, the nonsense you have come to know as the commissioner's odds have included assigning some nonsensical analogy to each team (80's song, recent sports team etc.).  This year, I am honoring the Super Bowl Champion Eagles by assigning each team a player from that Super Bowl team that best represents that group.  It will make no sense so please don't even try to figure out why, it will only make your brain hurt.  

Tough year to handicap.  Very balanced, very hard to gauge - maybe the hardest year I have ever had.  It really seems like it's anybody's game.  On to this year's odds:

Pick #1 - Rob & Josh (again for the second straight year they are the #1 pick)

Eagle - Nolan Smith  (Maybe #1's work, maybe they don't......we will find out this year)

Odds 8-1

Rob and Josh "trusted the list".  their top EIGHT picks were all from Number 1 seed teams.  That sounds great however the issue will be scoring.  They simply will not get enough unless at least three (Duke, Fla, Auburn) of the one seeds make the Final Four.  I just don't see that happening this year, too many good 2 seeds and the one seeds are not as strong as usual.  Sorry guys, but thanks to Josh for making the trek up from VA and his law school studies for the draft.  

Pick #2 - Kelly

Eagle - Kelee Ringo (First of all Kelee is darn close to "Kelly".  Secondly, we all know Howie Roseman, like Kel, loves the load-up philosophy with all the Georgia Bulldogs so this one was easy).

Odds 5-1

Kel seems to be tracking a Chip Kelly kinda theme over the years to some degree.  He loaded up on UCLA just two years ago taking three of his top 4 picks from Chip's then at the time current gig.  Now he has snagged 3 Oregon Ducks where Chipmania all began.  Chip aside, Kel is always hanging around as long as his load ups don't get bounced very early so if Oregon, Kentucky and Maryland can reach the Sweet 16 (not too far fetched) he could be a factor as he has a strong top 3 picks.

Pick #3 - Big Mur

Eagle - CJ Gardner-Johnson (Big Mur is all over the place and wildly unpredictable in his drafting but usually is in the thick of things and can make a big splash now and then.  He also enjoys trash talking.)

Odds  9-2

Big Mur usually has the octane, but the longevity could be the issue.  He has a mix of high seed vs high scoring so if he can sneak a Marquette or Arkansas into the Sweet 16 or beyond he will be tough to deal with.  The Mur's apply to the 12-16 pick, the saying my dad had about the weekend Farmer's Market he would go to at 6am.  "Get there before all the good stuff is gone".  Only problem with that and the 12-16's is there is no good stuff.  Only a handful have ever gotten more than one game from the pick so the early 12-16 usually doesn't bear fruit and could be a hindrance though Mur did show restraint this year in waiting until Round 7.  

Pick #4 - Mur Jr.  

Eagle - Darius Slay (Mur Jr is all about the Big Play)

Odds  7-1

Mur Jr, not unlike Big Mur, likes the big scorers and getting out of the gate strong.  Unfortunately with not one but two play-in picks, I'm just not sure that will happen for our hero.  If he loses both that will be a dagger, loses one not the end and better if it's the Texas player he loses if he has to lose one.  If he gets both through he's good to go for now.  His New Mexico is an interesting pick that could get some outperformance for him and if so, he hopefully can defy my odds here.  No offense to the rest of the pool, but I'd like to see him or Ben take a win home.

Pick #5 Andy

Eagle - Zack Baun (Andy just sneaks up on you like a Ninja and next thing you know you are 50 points behind him kind of like Zack Baun snuck up on the entire NFL this year quietly getting the job done).

Odds  4-1

Andy is just good at these things.  I can't make him any worse than 4-1 ever.  He's spread out very well so it's hard to gauge a bit.  He also took decent seeds but didn't follow this year's trend of high seed, low scores.  Mark Sears and Bama will probably dictate how far Andy goes but seeing as they are final four vets, that's not a bad place to hang your hat.  

Pick #6  Dave

Eagle - Devonta Smith (Dave's team this year might look like there is an AJ Brown ahead of him but in the end, he might be the guy that catches the bomb TD that finishes the job)

Odds  9-2

Dave again did a solid job of spreading out, getting some high seeds but also getting some scoring.  The round of 32 is always where DAve either makes it or breaks it so we shall see with his current group but I lean toward he will be in the thick of it.  Not a big fan of Drake but I did consume a good amount of their "devil dog" cakes in grade school in my lunches.  Might explain my outstanding metabolism today.

Pick #7 Jim & Joe (go 'Neers)

Eagle - Lane Johnson (This is a lunch pail team that just gets the job done. )

Odds  7-2

The Mountaineer and his Dad have a nice mix.  The third best scorer on a team as your first rounder is usually not a good recipe but there wasn't much difference between him and the top scorer on Florida so it should work out okay as long as Florida survives my defending chumps in UCONN in Round 2.  Winning teams usually make good picks late in the draft and this team has that potential.  Louisville has to get by my man Kalkbrenner (Creighton) but if so, Chucky Hep may be Joe's next late round masterpiece as Joe The Mountaineer is becoming known for.

Pick #8 Yes, Shieff! (Joe)

Eagle - Cooper DeJean (In honor of Joe's rookie year win he gets the impact rookie)

Odds  3-1

Joe has solid early picks with both scoring and longevity odds.  He also grabbed some late round snipers who if they stick around too will make him hard to beat.  Since his rookie win in 2019 Joe has been mired in the middle of the pack but I'm thinking this year he is in the top group with a real chance at his second win in 5 years.

Pick #9 Harry

Eagle - Jake Elliott (Under appreciated greatness.....ha ha)

Odds  10-1

The wheels fell off for me in round 5 when I went 8 seed.  Then that wasn't good enough so I proceeded to make 5 of my last 6 picks from 8-9 seeds.  That's just plain stupid.  Maybe epic stupidity.  I need Florida and Auburn both out in round 2.  Not likely.  Nor is me not finishing near the bottom this year.  Really.

Pick #10 Ben

Eagle - Jalen Hurts (Ben lamented again putting his faith in a player (LJ Cryer) having been burned in the past.  Sounds like Jalen Hurts pre-2024-25 to me. Here's hoping LJ is as good as Jalen was when it counts).

Odds  4-1

I really like Ben's mid round picks Rounds 3-8.  He has the nucleus here to compete.  I also think Zuby could put up some big numbers for St Johns, he's gotten better all year and has been really good lately.  Ben may be strolling around LA singing "zuby zuby dooooo" all the way to the bank).  If Houston does not have a problem Ben will be in the thick of it and hopefully take home his first win in this thing.  I'm hoping him coming home from LA was not in vane this year but Ben, if you do win it that probably means you need to draft in person EVERY year now.  

Pick #11 Ken

Eagle - Braden Mann (Ken LOVES the kicking game and I know how important it is to him so I can't disappoint him since I already took Jake Elliott)

Odds  (Do you need to ask?)

I actually think he might have a shot this year because he is so unlike any other team but has a mix of high seeds and scoring also.  His top pick being a Kentucky guy is a bit of a risk but not too out there.  Ken goes as Kentucky goes in this one probably.  If Kentucky meets Xavier in the round of 32 they may have a tough go, X is playing very well and are well coached unlike other Big East Teams residing in Rhode Island.