Research
Current Research
New (02/2024) Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050 (w/ Khan, Khederlarian, Ruhl, & Steinberg) (The Economist, 2/24/24)
Updated (01/24) Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 years of U.S.-China Trade (w/ Khan, Khederlarian, Ruhl, & Steinberg)
New Supply Chain Recessions (Khan, Khederlarian, C. Mix & Ruhl)
New Rising Current Account Dispersion: Financial or Trade Integration? (with Bai & Woo) [Slides]
Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence (with C. Mix) (NCSU mention)
Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations (with Pratap and Yue) [Slides]
Job Turnover and International Trade (w. H. Choi, A. Delacroix, N. Petrosky-Nadeau) [Slides]
Publications
Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession (with Khan & Khederlarian) [Slides] [NBER Draft] [VoxChina article] (accepted Journal of International Economics)
Perspectives on Trade and Structural Transformation with R. Johnson and K. Yi, forthcoming, Oxford Development Studies.
Trade Integration, Industry Reallocation, and Welfare in Colombia, (with O. Avila), [Slides][NBER Draft], forthcoming IMF Economic Review.
The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022 (Khan, Khederlarian, C. Mix & Ruhl) [Slides][NBER Draft], Journal of International Economics, 2023.
The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs? (w. H. Choi) [Slides] [NBER Draft], Journal of International Economics, 2021.
Firm Dynamics and Trade with Arkolakis and Ruhl, Annual Review of Economics, 2021.
Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade, (with H. Choi & Ruhl) [Slides] (NBER Draft), Journal of International Economics, 2021.
Migration and Sovereign Default Risk (with Yan Bai and Minjie Deng) [slides] , Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020.
Trade Integration in Colombia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with New Exporter Dynamics" (w. Oscar Avila), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020.
Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle (w. H. Choi) [Slides] (old draft), Journal Money Credit and Banking, 2019.
Trade Integration and the Trade Balance in China (with Dan Lu & H. Choi) [Slides] IMF Economic Review (August 2017) 65(3) 633-674.
Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations, (w. H. Choi, J. Kaboski and V. Midrigan) Journal of Monetary Economics, (January 2015)
Do Falling Iceberg Costs Explain US Export Growth? (w. H. Choi), Journal of International Economics, (November 2014) 94(2) 311-325.
Establishment Heterogeneity, Exporter Dynamics, and the Effects of Trade Liberalization, (w. H. Choi), Journal of International Economics, (November 2014) pp. 207-223. Notes Codes
Trade Wedges, Inventories, and International Business Cycles (w. J. Kaboski and V. Midrigan), Journal of Monetary Economics, (January 2013)
U.S. Trade and Inventory Dynamics (w. J. Kaboski and V. Midrigan), American Economic Review, (May 2011).
Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations (w. J. Kaboski and V. Midrigan), American Economic Review, (December 2010).
The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?, (w. J. Kaboski and V. Midrigan), IMF Economic Review, (December 2010)
Pricing-to-Market and the Failure of Absolute PPP, (w. J. Kaboski), American Economic Journal: Macro (January 2011) An early version of this paper, Violating Purchasing Power Parity
Consumer Search, Price Dispersion and International Relative Price Fluctuations, International Economic Review, (August 2009)
Trade and the (Dis) Incentive to Reform Labor Markets, (with A. Delacroix), Journal of International Economics, (May 2008) pp. 151-166.
Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics? (w H. Choi), Quarterly Journal of Economics (February 2007), pp. 289-336.
Endogenous Financial Intermediation and Real Effects of Capital Account Liberalization, (with J. Qian), Journal of International Economics (September 2005), pp. 97-128.
International Deviations from the Law of One Price: The Role of Search Frictions and Market Share, International Economic Review (November 2004), pp. 1263-91.