Trading vs. Dancing

In defense of discretionary trading, it is sort of like dancing. If you have ever been on an "open" dance floor, say like in a country western bar or a ballroom of some kind, you know that there are a few basic rules, but lots of human discretion in the process. Those few rules can produce the most wondrous and elegant physical harmony between a couple and all the other couples on the floor one can imagine.

The "flow" of the dancers on the floor is all in the same direction, but occasionally you see a couple dancing "counter" to the flow. We'll take country western dancing as the example because I am more familiar with it than ballroom dancing.

Everyone is on the floor at the same time, sometimes hundreds of couples. Some dance west coast swing, some east coast swing, some straight swing, two step, Texas two step, traveling two step, half time, just to name a very few of the popular dance steps. Thing about it is that more likely than not, they are all going in the same direction and no one collides, no one gets hurt and everyone has a lot of fun.

It looks chaotic, but in reality there are lots of smaller sets of rules in play. If you look at just one couple, that becomes very plain and a good set of partners can make it look like music in motion. Trading isn't much different. Lots of smaller sets of trading "systems" rules in play, all pretty much going in the same direction as the trend, or a few in counter trend style. The only ones who get truly hurt are the ones who ignore the rules and end up colliding with someone else's strategy. Those “getting hurt” in Forex would be the newbies who provide so much liquidity for everyone else.

It looks chaotic, but really all that Price Action is made up of millions of rule based decisions by all the participants. The "true" rules of the "dance" in the case of trading anything is what has been stated so very many times by the "Greats" of trading, Andrews, Dow, Merchal, Babson, Fibonacci, Elliot, Tim Morge in more recent times and several others.

Learn those basic rules, gain the "floor time" (chart time in trading) and you too can make it look easy, fun, musical and like poetry in motion.

It took me about a year to get really good at dancing, but when I did I could dance with any partner, even one who had no experience at all, and make the dance look simple, easy, musical, elegant and like she had been dancing most of her life.

Trading isn't any different, no aspect of life is. There are basic rules, a "flow" to learn to become accustomed to, a rhythm to follow and wallah!, you have a new Fred Astair looking for his Ginger Rogers. Phil Nel in his thread here on FF talks incessantly of the "flow" or the "rhythm" of the market, and that the most important thing is to learn it.

I have talked with many and researched literally thousands of hours of strategies, methods and it all boils down to this, just like dancing's rules, there are rules for successful trading.

1. What goes up must come down. (Gravity)

2. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. (Median Lines)

3. Life follows predictable patterns. (Elliot Waves)

4. It takes a lot of energy for a trend to turn. (Inertia)

5. There is a rise and fall to all Price Action. (Sleep cycles/ Circadian Rhythms)

6. Everything is built on smaller things. (Fractal Science/ Geometry, etc.)

Want to trade Elliot Waves? Then learn what they are and how to identify the major ones and they will appear on every chart in every time frame you can find. Then learn the flow and go with it.

Want to trade Fibonacci, it's not rocket science, just takes some "floor time" to learn the dance. Coincidentally, Fibs will help you find waves and waves will help you find Fibs. Amazing huh? Oh,,,,

The 20 Moving Average and the 10 Moving average have an uncanny way of following both! Maybe that's because they are built on Price Action that creates the "dance" of both. So you could trade Moving Averages too, looking for Wave signals or Fib levels and it will work. You just need "floor time" to learn the dance involved.

Same with any and every other strategy or method out there. Not one of them is truly significantly better than another one. They are all just visual aids to help you see Price Action, shorten the learning curve in the dance and to help you find that "Rhythm" in the dance flow. It is the trader who makes the difference, not the strategy, just like in dancing it is the dancer.

Find a dance you like, can understand and "see" then DANCE IT! Learn the flow, learn to "see" the patterns of your particular trading dance and quit listening to "gurus" who want your money. Quit arguing about which one is "best" they all work. Learn to use the mind God gave you and learn YOUR DANCE! It will most likely be at least a tiny bit different than anyone else's, because YOU are different.

There is an old country western song that says, “One step forward and two steps back, no one gets very far like that.” BUT, that is not true. In a dance there are two partners. One leads, one follows. For the most part the “male” leads and the “female” follows. She is traveling along in the dance just as fast as he is, only she is doing it backwards! She is also taking all of her “cues” from him. Without both partners there would be no dance. In trading, the market is the “male” and traders are ALL “female” taking their cues from “him” AND, they must do it in response rapidly and backwards.

If one over analyzes a dance technique they mess it up, the “flow” of the dance suffers and sometimes they even get hurt. If they don't understand the cues the same thing happens, only often it's worse . Trading is no different.

You could also compare it to a video game. There are rules to play by and when you learn them, it becomes very simple to "win" or at least play really, really well. There are rules as well in the markets. Those "rules" are all based on these self fulfilling prophecies of human psychology. Learn a few that make sense and you can play the game really well too.

You can make a strong living with only a small account to start with. It may take a while for you to get to the point you believe that, but once you do, it WILL happen. Keep at it long enough and you will ultimately become very wealthy. It depends on what you are willing to believe and what you are not willing to believe.

The first obligation of every trader is to themselves. It is to become free from the chains of your own limitations and those imposed on you by a lifetime of good intentions from others to help you see the limits of the “real” world. As a trader, you absolutely must find and stick to one strategy long enough to become consistent first, then stretch it to the level of financial security. In the process you will learn more about yourself than trading and you will eventually make that strategy “your own” by continuously improving and tweaking it to fit you.

Nguồn: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=224697

Khuyến cáo

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