Research

Abstract: We study whether and how the technological importance of an input – measured by its cost share – is related to the decision of whether to “make” or “buy” that input. Using detailed French international trade data and an instrumental variable approach based on self-constructed IO tables, we show that French multinationals vertically integrate those inputs that have high cost shares. A stylized incomplete contracting model with both ex ante and ex post inefficiencies explains why: technologically more important inputs are “made” when transaction cost economics type forces (TCE; favoring integration) overpower property rights type forces (PRT; favoring outsourcing). Additional results related to the contracting environment and headquarters intensity consistent with our theoretical framework show that both TCE and PRT type forces are needed to fully explain the empirical patterns in the data.

Abstract: This paper provides novel empirical evidence of the effects of a plausibly exogenous change in relative factor prices on United States manufacturing production and trade. The shale gas revolution has led to (very) large and persistent differences in the price of natural gas between the United States and the rest of the world reflecting differences in endowment of difficult-to-trade natural gas. Guided by economic theory, empirical tests on output, factor reallocation and international trade are conducted. Results show that U.S. manufacturing exports have grown by about 10 percent on account of their energy intensity since the onset of the shale revolution. We also document that the U.S. shale revolution is operating both at the intensive and extensive margins.

Abstract: As manufacturing firms expand globally, business services like advertising and legal support become essential for accessing new markets. This paper investigates how firms organize the provision of such market access services and the implications for foreign market entry costs, international trade, and welfare. Using French firm-level data and exogenous foreign demand shocks, we document that manufacturers increasingly outsource market access services domestically when they export to more destinations. We develop a novel theory of fixed and sunk export costs where firms weigh the managerial strain of internal provision against the adaptation costs of outsourcing—a mechanism that finds empirical support. We embed this endogenous market access cost function into a trade model, quantify its parameters, and study a variable trade cost reduction: the option to outsource doubles the variety gains for consumers and increases the producer surplus of smaller, less productive exporters.

Abstract: We study the role of firm heterogeneity and imperfect competition for global production networks and the gains from trade. We develop a quantifiable trade model with two-sided firm heterogeneity, matching frictions, and oligopolistic competition upstream. More productive buyers endogenously match with more suppliers, thereby inducing tougher competition among them to enjoy lower input costs and superior performance. Customs data confirms that downstream French and Chilean firms import higher values and quantities at lower prices as upstream Chinese markets become more competitive over time, with stronger responses by larger firms. Moreover, suppliers charge more diversified buyers lower markups. Counterfactual analysis indicates that entry upstream benefits highproductivity buyers, while trade liberalization and lower matching costs favor mid-productivity buyers. Welfare gains are sizable for each shock, greater under package reforms, and significantly reduced with fixed markups or networks. Global production networks thus mediate bigger effects and cross-border spillovers from industrial and trade policies.

Abstract: Although the environmental impact of trade has been a long-standing concern, there is still only scant evidence on the channels through which international market access affects pollution. In this paper, we exploit the unique episode of China's world market integration in the early 2000s to provide direct empirical evidence on three such mechanisms. We combine granular satellite data on air pollution with detailed information on manufacturing firms and coal power plants, and leverage exogenous foreign demand shocks for identification. Three main findings emerge: exporting firms reduce local pollution (scope-1); pollution levels around coal power plants rise due to regional export shocks (scope-2); and upstream suppliers reduce pollution in the face of export demand shocks to downstream firms (scope-3). Our findings point to China's reliance on coal power plants to fuel its export-driven growth as one of the main drivers of the rise in pollution.

Abstract: This paper examines the structure of international Just-in-Time (JIT) supply chains. Using information about JIT supply chain management for a large panel of French manufacturers I first document that JIT is widespread across all industries and accounts for roughly two thirds of aggregate employment and trade. Next, I establish two novel stylized facts about the structure of JIT supply chains: They are more concentrated in space (1) and more vertically integrated both domestically and internationally (2), than their `traditional' counterparts. I rationalize these patterns in a framework of sequential production where failure to coordinate adaptation decisions in the presence of upstream and demand shocks leads to inventory holding. In JIT supply chains, information about downstream demand conditions is shared throughout the supply chain, which facilitates coordination. The associated inventory saving effect is stronger when firms are close to each other, so that the supply chain reacts quickly to changes in demand; and when they are part of the same company, so that incentives for adaptation are aligned. Guided by further predictions of the model, I present empirical evidence that these organizational complementarities depend on inventory holding costs, demand persistence, and the ability to push inventories upstream via contractual penalties. Finally, I discuss long term implications of Brexit and COVID-19 for the structure of international supply chains based on my findings.