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U. S. Unemployment by State for March, 2017

Keith Greiner

August 9, 2020

The U. S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes monthly unemployment data. This essay is about the unemployment percent by state. The unemployment percent, by state, provides an indication of the economy in each state, relative to other states. The selection of colors and break-points in a map of unemployment can have a major impact on the interpretation of the data. This essay shows two variations on the selection of colors and break-points. In March, 2017 New Mexico had the largest unemployment percentage at 6.7% while Colorado had the lowest rate at 2.6% with the others between those two extremes.

The BLS presents the data at https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm. There, one can also find a map that helps visualize the geographic distribution of unemployment. Following is a map from that site. The BLS map divides the ranked list of states into six groups using the tens digit as the break-point. States with greater than 4.9% are colored a shade of red, while states with 4.9% or less are colored a shade of brown. The break-point for 7.0% and above was not mapped for March 2017 because no state had a percentage in that range.

Map 2, shown below, presents the same data, but reveals a different pattern. The difference is in the color, of course, and the break-points between the colors. Here, there are five categories and all states are coded with a shade of red. The method of establishing break-points is two-fold. First, break-points may be at an inflection point or in an area of the ranked data where no inflection point exists, the break-points are evenly distributed along the line that is shown in Graph 1.

The Excel sheet Image, shown below, includes the ranked states and data that were used in the above maps, along with color codes that show the break-points.

Graph 1, below, shows the distribution of unemployment percentages for the values ranked in the Excel image. The brown bars show the break-points of the map published by the BLS and the red columns show the break-points of Map 2. The left-most brown bar is shown at a break-point, as is the left most red bar. The red bar is not exactly at the inflection point because I placed it at the right-most value of a series that all had the same value. The rest of the columns are at various points along a line that is relatively straight. The graph shows that there is a consistent distribution among all the states, except for five states that have the highest unemployment values. Those five states are; New Mexico, Alaska, Alabama, District of Columbia, and Louisiana. Their unemployment percdntages for March, 2017 were from 6.7% for New Mexico to 4.7% for Washington. They are mutually consistent and yet different from the remaining states, such that they need to be treated as a single grup with the first break-point at their minimum value.

Overall, it looks to me like Map 2 gives a more meaningful representation of unemployment, with the highest levels being along the southern border and the mid-eastern states. Many of these states have federal Senators and Representatives that take a strong anti-employment position on a number of important policy issues of the day.

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