How irrationally optimistic are parents about their children’s intelligence?
Research has suggested that a large group of parents are overly optimistic about their children being intellectual gifted. Over 80% of parents surveyed, reported their children to have better than average to "extraordinarily gifted" levels of intelligence . Statistically this is not possible given that perhaps no more than 10-15% of children have extraordinary intelligence compared to their peers and by definition 50% of children have less than average intelligence as compared to their peers. The aforementioned bias parents exhibited is found to be an example of a cognitive illusion termed the Optimism Bias (Sharot, 2012). Are parents often biased in holding optimistic views of their children's intelligence which are not evidence based? The aforementioned bias appears to exist at this snapshot in time however, parents may not appear as irrationally optimistic if we look across generations.
Psychologists have found that IQ , the most common and valid measure of intelligence, to have been increasing approximately 3 points per decade over the past three generations of people in America, this process is termed the Flynn effect. This suggests that if parents benchmarked their children’s intelligence relative to the their own and their peers intelligence during their childhood, they may not appear to be as irrationally optimistic as when comparing their children to the child’s own peers. Consider the following scenarios outlined below comparing a child’s intelligence, as measured by IQ, today versus their peers of today compared to a group of children 30 and 60 years ago.
A child scoring in the 50th percentile today would score higher than 72% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 88% of children 60 years ago, their grandparents’ generation.
A child scoring in the 84th percentile today would score higher than over 94% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 98% of children 60 years ago their grandparents’ generation.
A child scoring in the 90th percentile today would score higher than over 97% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 99% of children 60 years ago, their grandparents’ generation.
The evidence is strong for interrupting rising IQ as a rational basis for optimism for society as a whole. Parent’s optimism for their children may not be as irrational as we think when we deemphasize comparing their children to their peers and focus more on parents and their kids as being part of the remarkable progress humanity has made in the long rise of our intelligence. This is an optimism which is evidence based and suggests parents may not be as irrationally optimistic about their child’s intelligence as we think. This may be even more true for proud grandparents.
Matt Velissaris