Articles
6/25/2013 Great piece from Nate Levin
For whom the bell peals—How the world is actually much better than you may think
By Nate Levin
Let’s start with a question---Can a single newspaper article change the way you see the world?
One did for me.
Buried on page A14 in the New York Times last Nov.
What was special?
It covered a huge underreported story—what 7 billion people have done over the last 40 years
So what have they done?
--Greatly improved their health
Since 1970 the average life expectancy at birth—around the world—has increased from 59 yrs to 70 yrs
Part of that means a lot fewer infant deaths
What else?
Much better educated—
The percentage of high school age kids actually in school has increased from 55% to 70% since 1970…that’s hundreds of millions more kids who can read
--big improvements in literacy even in places where you mainly hear about bad news..
--& we’ve made money
Over the last 40 years worldwide per capita annual income doubled from 5K to 10K (adjusted for purchasing power)
These are major points in the 2010 U.N. Human Development Report
So what does this mean?
One thing it means is that while we’ve been reading for 40 yrs about wars, disasters and crimes against humanity, a lot of great things have been happening in a lot of places that don’t get mentioned on the evening news or the front page of the NYT
Caveats
--sustainability is a serious issue
--inequality is a serious issue (More than 1.5 billion people are really really poor)
--quality of education is a serious issue
But the gains are still huge—they’re real—they’re worldwide (with some very sad exceptions)--& a lot of people don’t know about them
Why don’t we know?
“If it bleeds it leads”—even in the NY Times—the larger reality has gotten lost
So for that larger reality—see 2010 UN HDR…or “Getting Better” by Charles Kenny
But is this news you can use? (again, what does it mean?)
Maybe you can use this news maybe not…but let’s go off into philosophy for a bit
Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Or maybe neither?
If you’re a pessimist—there’s a lot of solid evidence that you’re up against
If you’re an optimist—there’s a big reality out there to back you up
While we’re on philosophy—what does this underreported story have to do with us, here?
Let’s go to John Donne—the 17th century English “metaphysical poet”—Famous for saying “No man is an island”
But let’s edit Mr. Donne the same way Elizabeth Cady Stanton edited Thomas Jefferson
Let’s say “No person is an island”…”No man, woman or child is an island”
Donne was saying, we are all connected
And he said “Send not to know for whom the bell tolls/it tolls for thee”
But why was Donne so hung up about death?
Why was his focus on funeral bells?
In 17th cent. England the life expectancy was 35 yrs (Donne made it to 59—he was lucky)
People were dying all the time—kids were dying, wives and husbands, friends, disease was everywhere
But now the worldwide life expectancy is 70—not 35 as in Donne’s time and place
Maybe if Donne were here now he’d write “Send not to know for whom the bell peals”
If your son or daughter is getting married—your joy is my joy—your triumph is my triumph—your harvest is my harvest
Maybe we can say, as Donne says…”For I am involved in mankind”
And maybe books like the 2010 UN Human Development Report and “Getting Better” can let us say---
Anne Frank was right—people are good
Wm. Faulkner was right—mankind will prevail
Leo Durocher was wrong—nice guys and gals can work together and do great things—they won’t finish last
So the next time you read the newspaper—don’t think the wars and calamities you read about are the whole story
--there’s a lot of other stories out there---good news stories—in lots of countries around the world
Even though you may not hear them—those bells are pealing for you
03/14/2013
How irrationally optimistic are parents about their children’s intelligence?
By Matt Velissaris
It has been suggested that a large group of parents are overly optimistic about their children being extraordinarily intellectually gifted. A large group of parents report their children to be outliers in high intelligence “ extraordinarily gifted”. Statistically this is not possible given that perhaps no more than 10-15% of children have extraordinary intelligence compared to their peers and by definition 50% of children have less than average intelligence as compared to their peers. The aforementioned bias parents exhibited is found to be an example cognitive illusion termed the Optimism Bias. Are parents often biased in holding optimistic views of their children which are not evidence based? The aforementioned bias appears to exist at this snapshot in time however, parents may not appear as irrationally optimistic if we look across generations.
Psychologists have found that IQ , the most common measure of intelligence, to have been increasing approximately 3 points per decade over the past three generations of people in America this process is termed the Flynn effect. This suggests that if parents benchmarked their own children’s intelligence relative to the their own and their peers intelligence as same aged children they may not appear to be as irrationally optimistic as when comparing their own children to the child’s own peers. Consider the following scenarios outlined below comparing a child’s intelligence, as measured by IQ, today versus their peers of today compared to a group of children 30 and 60 years ago.
A child scoring in the 50th percentile today would score higher than 72% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 88% of children 60 years ago, their grandparents’ generation.
A child scoring in the 84th percentile today would score higher than over 94% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 98% of children 60 years ago their grandparents’ generation.
A child scoring in the 90th percentile today would score higher than over 97% of children of same age 30 years ago. This child would also score higher than 99% of children 60 years ago, their grandparents’ generation.
The evidence is strong for interpeting rising IQ is a rational basis for optimism for society as a whole. Parent’s optimism for their children may not be as irrational as we think when we deemphasize comparing their children to their peers and focus more on parents and their kids as being part of the remarkable progress humanity has made in the long rise of our intelligence. This is an optimism which is evidence based and suggests parents may not be as irrationally optimistic about their child’s intelligence as we think. This may be even more true for proud grandparents.