Lecture 3: Covered and uncovered interest parity
With a forward contract, the pound return on a foreign deposit is known today, and covered interest parity says it must equal the UK rate, which pins the forward rate at F = E × (1 + UK rate)/(1 + foreign rate); otherwise there is riskless profit. Without a forward contract the payoff depends on the exchange rate in a year, and uncovered interest parity says expected returns are equal.
The Uncovered view uses the lecture’s dollar deposit. The US rate is higher, but that does not guarantee a higher return in pounds: if E is 0.80 in a year, £100 comes back as £105, against £104 at home; if it is 0.75, as about £98.44.
Try the lecture’s CIP example: the forward rate of 0.91 is below the 0.935 that CIP requires, so borrowing €1m, converting it and investing the pounds makes £25,800 without risk. At the forward rate of 0.93 in Analytical Exercise 2, the same trade makes £5,400.