Journal of Economic Studies, 2024
DOI · SUERF Policy Brief No 1026with H. Troug · Journal of Economic Studies, 2024
DOIwith R. Sbia and H. Troug · Economics Letters, 2023
DOI · SUERF Policy Brief No 606with E. Abdulla
Presented at
57th Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society, Lancaster, UK, September 2026 (presented by coauthor)
European Economics and Finance Society Annual Conference, Sevilla, Spain, June 2026 (presented by coauthor)
with Q. Wan
Previously circulated as “Government Investment vs. Consumption: Fiscal Multipliers under Financial Frictions”Shortlisted for the Young Economist Best Paper, 28th INFER Annual Conference (2026)
How does financial intermediation affect the choice between government investment and consumption?
Online appendixAbstract
We compare the output effects of government investment and consumption in a New Keynesian model where public capital raises the return to private capital and firms finance part of their investment through constrained intermediaries. Which of the two raises output more depends on when public projects become productive and on how firms finance their complementary investment.
Presented at
12th Hong Kong Economic Association Biennial Conference, University of Macau, China, June 2026 (presented by coauthor)
28th INFER Annual Conference & FI BA XXIII International Conference on Finance and Banking, Bucharest, Romania, June 2026 (shortlisted for the Young Economist Best Paper)
How many historical episodes support a state-dependent estimate? For U.S. fiscal news, the estimated response when inflation and unemployment are both high rests on about one effective event, 1981Q1.
Online appendix · SUERF Policy Brief No 1382Abstract
Using sectoral mobility data for 1947–2026 and the four-state decomposition of Jo and Zubairy (2025), I show that the type of recession shapes how macroeconomic shocks move workers across sectors.
Presented at
32nd International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF), Venice, Italy, July 2026
10th International Ioannina Meeting on Applied Economics and Finance, Syros, Greece, June 2026
13th Meeting of the Nordic Econometric Network, Helsinki, Finland, June 2026
with Q. Li
Previously circulated as “Oil Price Shocks and US House Prices: The Role of Credit Conditions”We study U.S. house-price responses to oil-market news using settlement-day surprises in twelve-month WTI futures around 140 OPEC announcements over 1989–2024.
Online appendixAbstract
For news that raises the oil price by 10 percent, the largest first-year house-price point estimate is about 1 percent below baseline, but it is not distinguishable from zero under leverage-adjusted inference. Non-shelter consumer prices rise immediately while shelter prices respond later, and a calibrated two-sector model generates a falling relative house price through greater oil-cost exposure in non-housing production.
Presented at
18th Annual Meeting of The Portuguese Economic Journal, Lisbon, Portugal, July 2025
XXVII Applied Economics Meeting, Murcia, Spain, June 2025
XXV Conference on International Economics and XII Meeting on International Economics, Alicante, Spain, June 2024 (presented by coauthor)
The 2024 RCEA International Conference in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance, London, UK, May 2024
24th Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference, Glasgow, UK, April 2024
17th South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania, December 2023 (presented by coauthor)
An eleven-sector New Keynesian model, estimated on U.S. data, of how sectoral differences in price and wage stickiness shape aggregate inflation.
Online appendixAbstract
Aggregate US inflation hides wide differences across sectors, and those differences are lopsided: inflation rates and how often firms change prices vary across product categories by more than a factor of ten, while how often wages are reset barely varies at all.
Presented at
Bank of Albania Friday Seminar Series, Tirana, Albania, May 2025
54th Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society, Portsmouth, UK, September 2023
Society for Computational Economics 29th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Nice, France, July 2023
27th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Crete, Greece, May 2023
47th Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía-Spanish Economic Association (SAEe), Valencia, Spain, December 2022
25th Central Bank of Colombia Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop, Virtual, November 2022
2nd Bank of Lithuania Invited Lecture Series and Conference, Vilnius, Lithuania, September 2022
EcoMod2022 International Conference on Economic Modelling and Data Science, Slovenia/Online, September 2022
Warsaw International Economic Meeting 17th Conference, Warsaw, Poland, June 2022
Economics Research Students Annual Conference, University of Exeter, June 2021
Graduate Workshop, University of Exeter, February 2021
Reject & resubmit, European Economic Review
Does persistent inflation amplify the private-consumption response to government spending?
Online appendixAbstract
Between-country comparisons suggest that it does; within-country evidence from first-release OECD forecast errors is more qualified. A New Keynesian model separates implementation, public news, spending timing, and measurement error.
Presented at
2nd Baltic Central Banks’ Lecture Series and Workshop, Riga, Latvia, May 2025
The 6th Baltic Economic Conference, Tallinn, Estonia, June 2024
Warwick Macro and International Workshop, Coventry, UK, June 2024
16th Annual Meeting of The Portuguese Economic Journal, Braga, Portugal, July 2023
EcoMod2023 International Conference on Economic Modeling and Data Science, Prague, July 2023
19th Euroframe Conference on Economic Policy Issues in Europe, Sciences Po, Paris, France, June 2023
The Royal Economic Society’s 2021 Annual Conference, Online, April 2021
The Italian Economic Association 60th Annual Scientific Conference, Palermo, October 2019
Economics Research Students Annual Conference, University of Exeter, June 2019
Graduate Workshop, University of Exeter, November 2018
How recycled materials change the way supply shocks to raw materials spread through European production networks.
How carbon pricing affects firm default and exit when firms borrow from banks and liquidation is irreversible.
The fiscal side of tariffs: how tariff revenue, debt maturity and the monetary–fiscal policy mix shape their effect on prices.
How the speed at which upstream commodity prices adjust changes the inflationary effect of tariffs.
Whether U.S. output responds differently to monetary surprises when newspapers discuss regulatory change.
Where news of higher government spending lands across U.S. industries, and whether it moves workers between them.
Determinant of Housing Rents in Urban Albania: An Empirical Hedonic Price Application with NSA Survey Data, with M. Kahveci. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(2), 51–65, 2017.
Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy in the Western Balkans, 2017 (MPRA).
Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania, with M. Kahveci, 2016 (MPRA).
Journals: International Review of Economics and Finance, Bulletin of Economic Research, Journal of Economic Studies
Conferences: EAYE Annual Meeting, Royal Economic Society Conference