Assignment 5: Design for 2032

Develop a scenario of the future ... about 20 years hence. DUE DATE: Monday March 25th.

1. First, identify a trend that you will focus on. Focus is important here to help narrow the scope of what you will do. At the same time there is some flexibility in the execution of this project, and if you wish to take a very different approach, you just need to ok that with the instructor. You may want to pick a focus that will support your final project.
2. Second, create a futures wheel exploring the potential impacts of those trends. The goal of this is to help you further with scoping of your project (not everything in the wheel will be within scope, but it allows you to get more specific than simply a trend). An example:

1. Next, apply a futures studies technique. You can use
   1. Environmental Scanning. In this case you will define a search criteria and use it to identify at least 10 sources that you will read and use to make at least 3 separate forecasts for your trend.
   2. Delphi. In this case, you will find at least 5 people who are willing to fill out a survey, which you will design to ask them about your trend. You should pick people who would know about the topic you care about while still keeping this manageable. Thus trends that are of interest and familiarity to college students might be the best starting place in this case. You should give this survey at least TWICE to those 5 people, summarizing the results in between so as to achieve some iteration.
   3. Games. In this case you will identify at least two games, ideally roleplaying games in which groups of people interact. Your choice of games should be relevant to the trend you have selected, and you should document this relationship when you write up this assignment. You should collect data on the technology used in these games (not to play the game, but any "imagined" technology used by players as part of the gameplay).
2. Next, create two scenarios using the wheel and your futures studies analysis. These scenarios represent potential futures for which you will be developing your technology. These should be exploratory, not predictive, and include both opportunities and threats (i.e. be real, not ideal). You should develop one that represents a preferable future and one that represents a probable future. Use them to spark ideas, write in the present tense. Questions to keep in mind for this:
• What changes are most likely to happen here? Probable future
• What would you personally prefer to see happen? Preferable future
• Who else shares such a vision of the future? People and organisations
• Who is actually working to create such a future? Action for change
  • Illustration:

1. Finally, create a written report. Your report should have the following parts:
   1. Introduction: Explain the trend you have selected and why it is relevant (1/2 page)
   2. Futures Wheel: A depiction of the futures wheel you created in exploring the trend along with some explanations. (about 1/2 page image + 1/2 page writing)
   3. Futures Method: A description of the technique you used, and the results. Your data and/or references (in the case of environmental scanning) should be included as an appendix of the report. (1-2 pages + appendix)
   4. Scenarios: These should be approximately 1 page long (each)
   5. Conclusion: Reflect critically on your results and their implications for technologies that we might develop.

For the final presentation/critique, tell us:

• What trends did you focus on in your Future prediction?
• What method did you use to project into the future?
• Results

8 mins of presentation; 5 mins discussion