The World is facing a climate emergency due to global warming from man-derived greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 400 parts per million (ppm) and increasing at 2.4 ppm per year. Until recently the atmospheric CO2 concentration was in the range of 180-300 ppm for the last 800,000 years, fluctuations in this range giving rise to successive glacial and inter-glacial periods that imposed selection pressures upon evolving humanity. The average surface temperature is now +0.8C above that in 1900 and this has already been associated with major climate, weather and biological disruptions. Indeed the species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 timers greater than normal. [1].
Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , these estimates translate to a Climate Genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [2].
Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Genocide is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equal”. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 25 (Australia; or 74 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). [2].
Basically we know what the problem is (man-made GHG pollution) and how to solve it. Fundamentally, as enunciated by 300.org, we need to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration to about 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [3].
To achieve 300 ppm CO2 we must achieve the following [4]:
1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.
2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.
3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.
We understand the problem and have the technological solutions – the impending catastrophe simply does not have to happen. Are we going to be able to overcome the current political stasis and act before it is too late for Humanity and the Biosphere? Is it too late? Are we all doomed?
The international consensus basis of the latest IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2014) has resulted in a report that softens the present acute seriousness of unaddressed man-made climate change. Thus the IPCC Summary argues for a limitation of temperature rise to 2oC through limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution of the atmosphere to 450 ppm CO2 -equivalent but hard evidence says that we have already reached 478 ppm CO2 -equivalent, that 2oC is dangerous and essentially inevitable, and that the world will use up its Carbon Budget for a 75% chance of avoiding 2oC within about 4 years (see Gideon Polya, “International consensus-based IPCC Summary For Policymakers (2014) downplays acute seriousness of Climate Crisis”, Countercurrents, 12 November, 2014: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya121114.htm )].
On the optimistic side, according to Ray Kurzweil, Google's director of engineering, in 15 years' time computers will be more intelligent than we are and will be able to understand what we say, learn from experience, make jokes, tell stories and even flirt (see Nadia Khomani, “2029: the year that robots will have the power to outsmart their makers”, Guardian, 23 February 2014: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/22/computers-cleverer-than-humans-15-years). According to the Australian Climate Commission (now sacked by the climate criminal, pro-pollution, anti-science, terracidal Australian Coalition Government) the world has only 15 years left at current rates of pollution before it exceeds the terminal carbon pollution budget of 600 Gt CO2 that must not be exceeded if we are to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise ( see Australian Climate Commission, “The critical decade 2013: a summary of climate change science, risks and responses”, 2013, p7: http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/The-Critical-Decade-2013-Summary_lowres.pdf ). The smart robots might evolve just in time to save their makers, Humanity..
[1]. Dr Gideon Polya ,“Climate change course”, 2011 via Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://yvcag.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html and
https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-climate-change-\
course ) and 300.org (see: http://300org.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html
and https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .
[2]. “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
[3]. 300.org: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/ .
[4]. “Climate crisis facts and required actions”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-crisis-facts-required-actions .
CLIMATE CHANGE WEBSITES created by Dr Gideon Polya - some useful compendia about climate change information, requisite actions & expert opinions:
“100% renewable energy by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ .
“2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .
300.org: . https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .
“300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .
“Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
“Biofuel Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .
“Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .
“Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
“Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .
"Climate Revolution Now": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .
“Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/ .
“Divest from fossil fuels”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/divest-from-fossil-fuels .
“Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .
“Nuclear weapons ban , end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban .
“Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .
"Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
“Yarra Valley Climate Action Group”: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/Home .
“Stop state terrorism” : https://sites.google.com/site/stopstateterrorism/ .
"State crime and non-state terrorism": https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/ .
Some key analyses by Dr Gideon Polya:
Gideon Polya, “Expert Witness Testimony To Stop Gas-Fired Power Plant Installation”, Countercurrents, 14 June, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140613.htm .
Gideon Polya, " Doha climate change inaction. Only 5 years left to act", MWC News, 9 December 2012: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/23373-gideonpolya-climate-change.html .
Gideon Polya, “Australia 's Huge Coal, Gas & Iron Ore Exports Threaten Planet”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150512.htm .
Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm .
Gideon Polya , “2015 A-to-Z Alphabetical List Of Actions And Advocacies For Climate Change Activists”, Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm
Gideon Polya, “100 Ideas For Climate Change Activists Trying To Save The Biosphere And Humanity”, Countercurrents, 10 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya100813.htm .
Gideon Polya, “Biochemical Targets Of Plant Bioactive Compounds”: moral & utilitarian reasons to stop ecocide, speciescide, omnicide & terracide”, Countercurrents, 22 February, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya220215.htm .
Gideon Polya, “Dishonest US GHG Reduction Pledge – US Has Already Exceeded Its Fair Share Of World's Terminal Carbon Budget”, Countercurrents, 5 April, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya050415.htm
Gideon Polya, “Intergenerational Theft – For Every $1 For Coal Today Future Generations Will Pay $1-$14 To Sequester CO2”, Countercurrents, 8 April, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya080415.htm .
Carbon Debt:
Carbon Debt reflects the inescapable future cost in today's dollars of fixing the remorselessly increasing climate damage. Carbon Debt is the historical contribution of countries to the carbon pollution of the atmosphere and can be variously expressed as Gt CO2-e (gigatonnes or billions of tonnes of CO2-equivalent) or in dollar terms by applying a Carbon Price. Thus leading climate economist Dr Chris Hope from 90-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price in US dollars of $150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf ).
The World has a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 350 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150 per tonne CO2-e = $193 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of (64 Gt CO2-e /year) x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years = $76.8 trillion or a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $270 trillion (about 3 times the annual world GDP of $85 trillion) that is increasing by about 64 Gt CO2-e/year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $9.6 trillion/year or about $10 trillion each year.
By way of a national example, Australia is a world-leading annual per capita GHG polluter with a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 5.9 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2-e/Gt C) x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $3.2 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of 2 Gt CO2-e/year x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years = $2.4 trillion i.e. a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $5.6 trillion (A$7.2 trillion) that is increasing at 2 Gt CO2-e /year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $300 billion (A$385 billion) per year. Thus Australia (population 24 million) with 0.34% of the world's population has 2.1% of the world's Carbon Debt. The Australian Carbon Debt will have to be paid by the young and future generations and for under-30 year old Australians is increasing at about $30,000 (A$38,500) per person per year, noting that the annual Australian per capita income is about $65,000 (A$83,000) (see Gideon Polya, “2015 A-to-Z alphabetical list of actions and advocacies for climate change activists”, Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm ).