ROCCO’S RULES HISTORY
The Western Independent Fantasy League (WIFL) dates back to 1988. At first, it employed the standard Rotisserie Rules, was American League only, and consisted of 12 teams.
Even as those Rotisserie Rules swept the nation, there were rumblings. The highest bid player was almost always a closer. Stolen bases were as valuable as a home run. Walks for a hitter didn’t count for a thing. Instinctively, one knew there were some problems.
In 1993, our commissioner, Mike Friedrich, came across a book promoting a new and better system. The system was an updated version of a game Steve Mann helped to develop for the Philadelphia Phillees’ front office in 1985. The system went into great detail to correlate individual hitting statistics with runs produced. And they cross-checked those numbers so that they correlated with the actual number of runs produced in the average MLB game. If one wants to see a truly incredible analysis, find one of Steve Mann’s guides from the mid-90’s.
The Front Office pitching values were intended to reverse the methods for measuring hitting. But even a layman could see that "team" statistics were sneaking in as "individual" statistics. Points were awarded for wins and saves. Think Francisco Rodriguez would have been worth the same if he was on the Nationals in 2008? Or Matt Cain if he was on the Yankees?
In any case, WIFL adopted the Front Office Rules in 1993. In 1998, WIFL became a full MLB league rather than American League only. It changed the values of individuals because of the influx of new players, but eliminated the headaches of inter-league player transfers.
We blissfully used those Front Office Rules thru the 2007 season. There were occasional grumblings that pitchers were putting up disproportionately low numbers – both individually and as a group. But when WIFL teams began to be successful with a team of (9) one-point pitchers, it was time for action. Pitchers will always be more unpredictable but . . . a team of one-point pitchers!? At the year-end meeting at Rocco’s Restaurant, the decision was made to crunch some numbers and come up with suggestions.
Downloads of individual and MLB team statistics were analyzed. Utilizing the talents of our in-house physicist, Steve Klisch, regression analysis was performed on a large number of various proposals. "Team" statistics for pitchers were eliminated. But closers were found to be undervalued. Saves were brought back in, but their worth was modified.
Various points of view were analyzed. If hitting statistics had a goal of correlating with "runs produced", did pitchers need any statistic other than ERA to correlate with "runs prevented"? How boring would a one-category pitching measure be? Was it legitimate to combine base-runners allowed with actual runs allowed to achieve some mystical "runs that SHOULD have been allowed"?
There is no perfect system. But we finally decided that the hitting values should closely correlate with runs produced and the pitching values should correlate with runs prevented. Pitching and hitting totals should be in balance. And in combination they should correlate with wins.
If runs produced was used by itself to correlate with team success, the Rockies would be in the World Series almost every year. If pitching statistics alone were used, a team in a pitchers'’park like San Diego would be in the World Series every year. Both categories combined should reflect run differential – and THAT should reflect success. So what happened? In 2007, the Diamondbacks just missed making the World Series despite giving up more runs than they scored! So much for a perfect system.
But we finally arrived at a system that not only met our macro goals of correlating MLB team batting and pitching statistics with runs created and prevented, but it also balanced the individual points-produced for the top individual hitters and pitchers.
Every fantasy system that has ever been created has always presented problems with things that appeared "instinctively" to be out of whack. Heck, how many even attempt to include defense beyond the fact that if a player’s defense is too bad, he probably won’t be playing? And defense causes the pool of shortstops to put up fewer points than the pool of first-basemen. But after much doodling with different values for different events, we finally came up with a value system that actually balanced pitching with hitting. Perhaps more important, it actually "looked" right when used to rank individual players by the points they produced. The fact that regression analysis applied to MLB team totals produced a greater coefficient of correlation with runs produced, runs prevented, and ultimately wins than any other fantasy system was enough. The system was implemented in 2008. The result? Pre-season projections for hitting and pitching points were realized almost exactly. Pitching points came back into balance with hitting points. A new system had been created that took Rotisserie and Front Office principles to a new level.
Just as the founders of the original Rotisserie Rules named those rules after the restaurant where they were created, we named the new rules after the restaurant where the original concepts were spawned – Rocco’s.
Is it the ultimate system? If a major league team can almost reach the World Series despite giving up more runs than they scored, there probably is no ultimate system – unless one can suddenly find a formula to project "fortuity".
Perhaps the final measure for any system is the amount of fun it produces. After trying standard Rotisserie, 5 x 5, and Front Office, we have found the Rocco’s System to be a natural progression not only in logic but in fun. Check the individual point projections and see if they don’t appear "instinctively correct". It’s nice that all of that regression analysis resulted in something that "looks" so good.
Most fantasy sites now offer the option that allows leagues to assign values to individual hitting and pitching statistics. Many even include fielding statistics, so there may yet be another advance. The Rocco System is readily adaptable to these sites. WIFL has used CBS.Sportsline for a number of years with excellent results. Is it time for the Rocco System to finally replace the Rotisserie System???