Reality check on renewable energy
Hello there.
I think there needs to be a reality check on renewable energy. To start with, there is an overblown idea of the amount of wind and solar energy that has been installed so far. You may be surprised to know that wind and solar combined supply less than 1 percent of global energy demand. I am talking here about total energy, not just electricity, which is less than a fifth of all final energy. Most final energy is not electricity but fuel for transport and heat. So renewables have a long way to go if they are to meet the demand not just for existing uses of electricity but also electricity for vehicles and heating.
Let us assume that total energy output doubles between now and 2050. This could be achieved with a 2.1 per cent annual increase. Doubling energy over this period would be quite pathetic given the need to provide for an increasing global population and to have a big impact on poverty. However, meeting this modest goal by wind and solar would require them to be 200 times their present level. To achieve that you would need to increase renewable capacity by over 17 per cent each year until 2050. Even if we assume that energy output does not grow at all over this period, renewables would still have to increase to 100 times their present level which would still require a 15 per cent annual increase.
So there is a long way to go and capacity would have to grow at a much quicker pace than it is now. The International Energy Agency predicts that renewable energy will only increase by 42% between 2015 and 2021. That is equivalent to a 6 percent annual increase. This is well below what would be needed. Indeed at that rate by 2050 renewable energy would only increase to 7 times its present level.
Then there is the cost. There is a lot of talk about how wind and solar have come down in price and are comparable with fossil fuel. Well I'm not sure about that when you take into account such things as energy storage, smart meters, and the need for far more transmission lines. With heavy reliance on renewables you need lots of storage to shift electricity to times when there is little or no sun or wind. Alternatively, you need vast transmission networks that stretch over vast distances to take advantage of different weather conditions and time zones. In the case of storage, pumped hydro is the cheapest option but very dependent on geography. Batteries are only good for providing electricity for hours but not weeks or months. Then we have to take into account the many hundreds of coal powers plants that have been built recently or are in the production pipeline. I would imagine in many, if not most cases, it would be hard to have lower costs than a coal power plant that has already been built.
What about other renewables. There is hydro-electricity but there is a limit on how much we can increase capacity. And also keep in mind that it is not always reliable because it depends on rain and snow. And then there is bio-fuel but that competes with food production.
Another issue is how effective are renewables in reducing CO2 emissions, given the large amount of CO2 embodied in the construction of the new wind and solar facilities. While renewables may not emit CO2 when they are producing electricity, they certainly use a lot of fossil fuels in the upfront construction phase.
So to sum up, I would say that a lot more thought needs to go into energy policy.
If you want to read the transcript of this talk there is a link to it in the description section below.
See you next time.