Humanity unfortunately has a poor track record of peacefully resolving areas of tension between factions and countries.
Often disputes lead to conflict weather due to issues over resources, ideological, empire building, political, religious or hate, normally a mixture.
These areas of conflict for what ever reason have a large influence on how we asses risk, even for delivery of humanitarian aid.
Natural resources often create tipping points. Commodities such as water, food, minerals, .