Gideon Polya,“Climate Lies Doom Planet. 2C rise inevitable at 475 ppm CO2-e, MWC News, 21 September 2009 (updated).
Climate Lies Doom Planet. 2C rise inevitable at 475 ppm CO2-e
The First World’s biggest Climate Liars gathered at the UN in New York and thence at Copenhagen in December 2009. Their Big Lies are the EU and now G8 “targets” of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees C (now inevitable whatever we do) and of limiting atmosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration to 450 ppm CO2-e (it is already at a dangerous 475 ppm).
A further Big Lie is that an atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 CO2-e will ensure a safe planet – a recent report from the prestigious UK Royal Society informs us that the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned “to 320ppm [about 370 ppm CO2-e] to ensure permanent planetary health”.
The lying Mainstream media won’t generally report the utter falsity of these 3 Big Lies for obvious reasons – perhaps there would be rioting in the streets. The racist, genocidal leaders of the First World are pretending to tackle climate change while cementing in place a worsening climate genocide that is predicted to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century due to unaddressed, First World-imposed global warming.
Big Lie #1 – that we can limit global temperature to 2 degrees Centigrade above that in 1900 (a 2 degree C rise is inevitable).
The G8 First World countries meeting at L’Aquila, Italy (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and the US) were occasionally joined at the summit by leaders or representatives from the G5 group of emerging economies (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa) . The leaders of the G8 leading industrial countries have agreed to try to limit global warming to just 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels by 2050; that G8 nations are to cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2050; and that World carbon emissions should be cut by 50% by 2050. [1].
This G8 meeting outcome has been trenchantly criticized by the UN Secretary General Ban-ki Moon as insufficient and inconsistent with urgent scientific advice. [2].
The G8 decision has effectively condemned the Developing World to climate genocide that is predicted to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century due to unaddressed First World-imposed climate change [3].
Professor Kevin Anderson and Dr Alice Bows, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK, in a paper published in the prestigious Transactions of the Royal Society, 2008: “According to the analysis conducted in this paper, stabilizing at 450 ppmv [ppm CO2-e], requires, at least, global energy related emissions to peak by 2015, rapidly decline at 6-8% per year between 2020 and 2040, and for full decarbonization sometime soon after 2050 …Unless economic growth can be reconciled with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year), it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilization at or below 650 ppmv CO2-e ... Ultimately, the latest scientific understanding of climate change allied with current emissions trends and a commitment to “limiting average global temperature increases to below 4oC above pre-industrial levels”, demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society.” [4].
According to 2degrees.org: “A broad consensus is growing that there is a tipping point at about 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperature levels, beyond which the impacts may be very difficult to manage. The European Union for example, has adopted 2 degrees C as a target for the maximum temperature rise. Climate modelling suggests that to limit the risk of average global temperature rise exceeding 2 degrees C, we will need to stabilise the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases below 450 ppm CO2-e. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report indicates that a CO2-e level of 445-490ppm is likely to produce an average temperature rise of 2.0-2.4 degrees C.” [5, 6].
Unfortunately, as set out below, the atmospheric GHG concentration already exceeded 445 ppm CO2-e 5 years ago.
Big Lie #2 – we will stabilize atmospheric GHG at less than 450 ppm CO2-e (this has already been exceeded).
To understand this point clearly we can turn to the expert explanations of Professor Barry Brook (Foundation Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change and Director of Climate Science at The Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, South Australia): “The pre-industrial and current concentrations of well-mixed long-lived GHG are 278 parts per million (ppm) for CO2 (now 383), 700 ppb (pp billion) for CH4 (now 1,775), and 270 ppb for N2O (now 320). Most of the other trace greenhouse gases (there are plenty), such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), are almost exclusively a result of industrial activity … Now if you add up all of the GHGs (+100 ppm for CO2, +1,000 ppb for CH4, +50 ppm for N2O, and so on), and multiply each gas by its concentration equivalence, then you come up with a number of 455 ppm CO2-e for the atmosphere in 2005. … You need to consider all the other things, besides GHG, which can and do ‘force’ the climate (i.e., cause warming or cooling across the planetary system). Changes in the sun for instance can have a positive (+ve) or negative (-ve) forcing effect. As can melting polar ice and snow (+ve), land clearance (+ve for the extra GHG, -ve for exposed land), aerosols (+ve for black carbon, -ve for sulphates, +ve or -ve for clouds) … If you make the necessary calculation to add and subtract all of these climate forcings, then you get the total current concentration equivalence of CO2. This is 375 ppm CO2-e. By a queer coincidence, this number (at least the best estimate) is very close to the actual concentration of just CO2 alone (383 ppm). But the probability distribution is pretty wide … [Most likely ] CO2-equivalents in 2005, for all forcings and just greenhouse gases: 375 ppm (all forcings), 455 ppm (GHG forcing only).” [7].
Of course, those discommoded by the deluge of neocon climate denialism may feel more comfortable with the collective wisdom of the thousands of climate scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which, not surprisingly is exactly the same as the wisdom of Professor Brook because it is based on the same immutable laws of chemistry and physics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007): “Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by almost 100 ppm in comparison to its preindustrial levels, reaching 379 ppm in 2005, with mean annual growth rates in the 2000-2005 period that were higher than those in the 1990s. The direct effect of all the long-lived GHGs is substantial, with the total CO2 equivalent concentration of these gases [in 2005] estimated to be around 455 ppm CO2-eq (range: 433-477 ppm CO2-eq). The effects of aerosols and landuse changes reduce radiative forcing so that the net forcing of human activities is in the range of 311 to 435 ppm CO2-eq, with a central estimate of about 375 ppm CO2-eq.” [8].
Similar estimates are provided by the Synthesis Report of the March 2009 scientific Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (2,500 expert delegates) which stated “rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid dangerous climate change regardless of how it is defined”. The equilibrium temperature increase is a very damaging 2.0-2.4oC increase over the pre-industrial for a 85-50% decrease on 2000 GHG and a 445-490 ppm CO2-e (corresponding to 350-400 ppm CO2) peaking at 2000-2015 (roughly the current situation with CO2 of 390 ppm and CO2-e of 475 ppm but with zero net emissions) – however, this rises to a catastrophic 4.9-6.1oC increase for a 90-140% increase on 2000 GHG and a 855-1130 ppm CO2-e (corresponding to 660-790 ppm CO2) peaking at 2060-2090 (Australia’s domestic plus exported GHG is expected to rise 80% on 2000 levels by 2050). [9, 10].
Big Lie #3 – that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm CO2-e will ensure a safe planet (it won’t).
The European Union (EU), September 2009: “The EU's objective is to prevent global warming from reaching dangerous levels of more than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature, or around 1.2°C above today's level … Scientific evidence shows that this requires global emissions of greenhouse gases to peak before 2020 and then be cut by at least 50% of their 1990 levels by 2050.” [11].
In adopting this position (now endorsed by the G8), the EU was informed by the European Environment Agency (EEA, an agency of the European Union) which has stated : “Various studies have assessed the probability of keeping the long-term temperature rise below this [2C] target in relation to different stabilization levels of GHGs in the atmosphere … These studies showed that there is an about 50% probability that the temperature rise would remain below the 2oC increase if the GHG concentration would be stabilized in the long-term at 450 ppm CO2-eq. At 550 ppm CO2-eq. stabilization the probability of staying below the 2oC is very low, ranging between 1% and 37%.” [12].
However, in the last few years numerous top scientists have stated that the atmospheric CO2 concentration must be returned to about 300 ppm to ensure retention of the Arctic summer sea ice and a safe planet. For a compendium of such expert views see the website of 300.org which argues for an atmospheric concentration of 300 ppm CO2 (as opposed to 350.org which insufficiently argues for 350 ppm CO2). An expertly attested “safe” atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300 ppm corresponds to a total GHG concentration of about 350 ppm CO2-e – 100 ppm CO2-e below the level proposed by the EU. [13].
Cogent support for this circa 300 ppm CO2 position has come from the expert Working Group on coral of the prestigious UK Royal Society: “The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently. The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to 2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research) Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair). ” [14].
The World is acutely threatened by man-made global warming. First World-imposed climate genocide due to unaddressed, man-made climate change is predicted to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims (a Muslim Holocaust 500 times greater than the WW2 Jewish Holocaust or the “forgotten” WW2 Bengali Holocaust), 2 billion Indians, 1.4 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.6 billion Arabs, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [15].
The climate criminal Liars of the First World leadership continue to deceive a World that is under acute threat from worsening climate disruption, climate emergency and climate genocide. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. Think of Humanity and the Biosphere, think of your actual or contemplated children and grandchildren and tell everyone you can.
[1]. BBC report, “G8 set new climate targets”: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8141514.stm ).
[2]. BBC, “Ban criticized G8 climate efforts”: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8143059.stm .
[3]. Gideon Polya, “G8 failure means Climate genocide for Developed World”, Countercurrents, 11 July 2009: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110709.htm [4]. Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows, “Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends”, Proc. Trans. Roy. Soc, A, 2008: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/journal_papers/fulltext.pdf .
[5]. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf).
[6]. 2degrees.org, “Climate change”: http://www.2degrees.org.au/learn/climate-change/ .
[7]. Barry Brook, “How much warming in the pipeline? Part 1 – CO2-e” Brave New Climate, 6 October 2008: http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/10/06/how-much-warming-in-the-pipeline-part-1-co2-e/ .
[8]. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, p102 (se the text via Google Books).
[9]. Gideon Polya, “Summary of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Synthesis Report”, Greenblog: http://www.green-blog.org/2009/06/25/summary-of-the-2009-copenhagen-climate-change-conference-synthesis-report/ .
[10]. Synthesis Report from the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (“Climate Change, Global risks, challenges & decisions”, Copenhagen 10-12 March, 2009, University of Copenhagen, Denmark): http://lyceum.anu.edu.au/wp-content/blogs/3/uploads//Synthesis%20Report%20Web.pdf .
[11]. EU, “A post-2012 global climate regime: the EU’s contribution”: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm .
[12]. European Environment Agency, CSI 013 specification – atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations”: http://themes.eea.europa.eu/IMS/ISpecs/ISpecification20041007131717/guide_summary_plus_public .
[13]. 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .
[14]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm”: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf .
[15]. Gideon Polya “ 300.org message to World: stop climate genocide by 100% renewable energy by 2020, 300 ppm CO2 & SANCTIONS”, Bellaciao: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19216 .