Working Papers

When Democracy Refuses to Die: Evaluating a Training Program for New Politicians (with Ernesto Dal Bó, Fred Finan, and Pedro Pessoa), July 2025. Older version available as NBER Working paper 33251. 

The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil’s Lava Jato Investigation (with Luiz Moura, Lars Norden, and Ricardo Schechtman), July 2025. NBER Working Paper 33991. 

Losing to Gain: Revenue Shortfalls and Fiscal Capacity in Brazil (with Dirk Foremny and Juan Francisco Santini), April 2025. Older version as NBER Working Paper 32440. Submitted

Social Media and the Behavior of Politicians: Evidence from Facebook in Brazil (with Pedro Bessone, Filipe Campante, Pedro CL Souza), July 2022. NBER Working Paper No. 30306, under revision.

Procuring Firm Growth: The Effects of Government Purchases on Firm Dynamics, with Frederico Finan and Dimitri Szerman, 2021 [Available as NBER working paper 21219 and BREAD working paper 452], under revision.

Motivating Politicians: The Impacts of Monetary Incentives on Quality and Performance (with Frederico Finan), 2011, under revision.

Resource Windfalls and Political Accountability: Evidence from Brazil's Offshore Oil Boom (with Joana Monteiro), under revision.

Publications

Malfunctioning Democracies: Understanding Accountability Failures in Developing Countries  (with Frederico Finan), Handbook of Political Economy (Ed. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson), August 2025, forthcoming.

Political Power, Elite Control, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Brazil (with Frederico Finan and Monica Martinez-Bravo) Volume 22, Issue 6, December 2024, Pages 2870–2908 Journal of the European Economic Association  [earlier version NBER Working Paper No. 27456]. 

Money and Politics: The Effects of Campaign Spending Limits on Political Entry and Competition (with Eric Avis, Frederico Finan, and Carlos Varjão) October 2022, 14(4): (pp. 167-99) American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, [earlier version NBER Working Paper No. 23508]. 

Do Government Audits Reduce Corruption? Estimating the Impacts of Exposing Corrupt Politicians (with Eric Avis and Frederico Finan), Journal of Political Economy, October 2018, vol. 126, no. 5. [available as NBER working paper]

Fighting Political Corruption: Evidence from Brazil (with Frederico Finan) in Eds. K. Basu and T. Cordella, Institutions, Governance, and the Control of Corruption. Pages 253-284, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

Human Capital Persistence and Development (with Rudi Rocha and Rodrigo R. Soares) American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, October 2017, 9(4): 105-136.

Making Politics Work for Development: Harnessing Transparency and Citizen Engagement (with Stuti Khemani, Ernesto Dal Bó, Frederico Finan, et al.), Policy Research Report, World Bank 2016.

Corrupting Learning: Evidence from Missing Federal Education Funds in Brazil ,with Frederico Finan and Diana B. Moreira. Journal of Public Economics, October 2012, Vol.96, Issues 9-10: 712-726.  [available as NBER working paper 18150; IZA paper 6634]  

Electoral Accountability and Corruption: Evidence from the Audit Reports of Local Governments, with Frederico Finan. American Economic Review, June 2011, Vol.101:1274-1311.                                             

Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effect of Brazil’s Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes, with Frederico Finan. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008, Vol. 123, No. 2: 703–745. 

Work in Progress

Contractual Features and the Appointment of High-Level Bureaucrats (with Antonella Bancalari)

Voting for Quality? The Impact of School Quality Information on Electoral Outcomes (with Marina Dias and Wayne Sandholtz) 

Promises, Policies, and Accountability (with Caroline Le Pennec)

Agrarian Elites, Education, and Long-Term Development (with Pedro Américo)

Can Entertainment Media Undermine Dictatorships? Evidence from Brazil’s Novelas (with Alberto Chong, Frederico Finan, Eliana La Ferrara, and Luis Meloni)

Regaining the Monopoly of Violence: Evidence from the Pacification of Rio de Janeiro's Favelas (with Joana Monteiro and Bruno Ottoni)

Legal Capacity and the Development of Firms: Historical Evidence from Peru (with Alvaro Cox)

Technological Change and Labor Selection: Evidence from the Brazilian Soybean Revolution (with Arthur Bragança and Juliano Assunção)