Working Papers and Work in Progress

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo, 2019, with Josefin Meyer and Carmen Reinhart, NBER WP
R&R at the Quarterly Journal of Economics
The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt, 2019, with Matthias Schlegl and Mark L. J. Wright, NBER WP

China's Overseas Lending, 2019, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart
Kiel Institute Working Paper

Exportweltmeister: The Low Returns on Germany's Capital Exports, 2019, with Franziska Hünnekes and Moritz Schularick
Kiel Institute Working Paper

Sovereign Defaults in Court, March 2018, with Julian Schumacher and Henrik Enderlein, ECB, CEPR and CESifo Working Papers.
R&R at the Journal of International Economics

Capital Flow Cycles: A Long Global View, with Carmen Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart,
Paper presented at the Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual IMF Research Conference, November 2-3, 2017.

Macroeconomics of Populism, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick

Do Collective Action Clauses Work? with Chuck Fang and Julian Schumacher

The Forgotten History of Official Debt, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart

Published Articles

Political Booms, Financial Crises, with Helios Herrera and Guillermo Ordonez, NBER Working Paper 20346.
Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming

Foreign Law Bonds: Can They Reduce Sovereign Borrowing Costs?, November 2014, with Marcos Chamon and Julian Schumacher
Journal of International Economics, 2018

ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds
, with Jeromin Zettelmeyer,
IMF Economic Review, 2018

Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick,
European Economic Review

The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republicwith Toman Omar Mahmoud, Hillel Rapoport and Andreas Steinmayr, American Economic Journal - Applied Economics, 2017.

The Output Costs of Hard and Soft Sovereign Default, with Michael Zabel,
European Economic Review, 2017.

The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece 1829-2015, NBER Working Paper 21664 and CEPR DP 10898, 2016, with Carmen Reinhart,
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016.

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015, with Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart,
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings
, 2016.

The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention, 2016, with Carmen Reinhart
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2016. A longer version is available as NBER Working Paper 21805

Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath, with Carmen Reinhart
Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA), 2016. An earlier version is available as NBER Working Paper 20577
  • Press Coverage: New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, Slate, Telegraph, The Guardian, Irish Times, BILD, Die Welt, Kathimerini, See also the Summary on VOX

Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default, 2016, with Tamon Asonuma
Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA)
, 2016. Also available as CEPR and CESifo Working Papers

What Explains Sovereign Debt Litigation?, with Julian Schumacher and Henrik Enderlein
Journal of Law and Economics, 2015.
Also available as CESifo WP No. 5319.

Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts
with Juan Cruces (Paper, Appendix
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013. *** NEW *** 2014 Update of Haircut Dataset

  • Press Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Die Zeit, Die Welt, Financial Times, La Repubblica, Le Temps, Die Presse, Kathimerini,  El Mundo, El Economista, Sydney Morning Herald, The Nikkei, Les Echos, Bloomberg / Business Week, Roubini, The Guardian, Le Monde
  • VOX column
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy, CESifo WP 4333, July 2013, with Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Mitu Gulati
Economic Policy, 2013.
  • Press Coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, Financial Times Alphaville, Forbes Magazine, Il Sole 24 Ore

Sovereign Debt Disputes: A Database of Government Coerciveness in Debt Crises, with Henrik Enderlein and Laura von Daniels,
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012.

The Economics of Human Trafficking and Labour Migration: Micro-evidence from Eastern Europe
with Toman Omar Mahmoud. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2010.

Additional Articles, Unpublished and Old Work

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data and Stylized Facts, August 2012, with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou,
IMF Working Paper 12/203 [Paper] and [Data]

Seasonal Migration and Networks. Evidence on Moldova's Labour Exodus, with Dennis Goerlich.
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2008.

The Use of Socio-Economic Criteria for Intergovernmental Transfers: The Case of India, with Tapas K. Sen.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2004.

Book Chapters

Restructuring Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Recent History, with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou.
In: Claessens, Kose, Leaven und Valencia (Eds.): Financial Crises, Consequences and Policy Responses, IMF press, 2014

Managing Holdouts: The Case of the 2012 Greek Exchange, with Mitu Gulati and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.
In: Lastra und Buchheit (Eds.): Sovereign Debt Management, Oxford Univ. Press, 2012

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets. [Download as IMF WP]
with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou. In: Primo Braga, Carlos A. /Dömeland, Dörte (Eds):
Debt Relief and Beyond: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead
. World Bank Publishers, 2009

Debt Restructuring Delays: Measurement and Stylized Facts.
In: Kolb, Robert (Ed.): Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Sovereign Risk Spillovers
with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou.
In: Kolb, Robert (Ed.): Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.