Welcome to Christian Stoltenberg's webpage!

I'm Christian Stoltenberg, a macroeconomist at the University of Amsterdam (UvA) and a research fellow at the Tinbergen Institute (TI). Here's my CV.

Here's a LINK to an X Tweed with a nice summary of the paper Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence and Structural Estimation, with Marcelo Pedroni and Swapnil Singh.

Research Agenda on Advance Information in a Nutshell

There is mounting evidence that individual expectations are predictive of subsequent realizations of individual risks even when other information available to an econometrician is taken into account. This suggests that individuals possess advance information on these risks, that is, they have fore-knowledge on future job losses, earnings, and mortality. The novelty of my recent research is to use evidence from individual expectations data in the structural estimation of quantitative macro models. This allows me to show that advance information crucially matters for consumption insurance, the optimal design of social security and taxation schemes as well as for the existence of a private unemployment insurance market. If you want to know about my work in this area, here are links to recent papers:

Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation (2025), with Arne Uhlendorff, Revise & Resubmit at Quantitative Economics.
Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence and Structural Estimation (2025), with Marcelo Pedroni and Swapnil Singh, Journal of Monetary Economics.
On The Existence of Private Unemployment Insurance with Advance Information on Future Job Losses (2023), with Piotr Denderski, Journal of Public Economics. Online Appendix.

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