Welcome to Christian Stoltenberg's webpage!

I'm Christian Stoltenberg, a macroeconomist at the University of Amsterdam (UvA) and a research fellow at the Tinbergen Institute (TI). Here's my CV.

WE ARE HIRING ON THE JUNIOR MARKET! JOB ADD

Here's a LINK to an X Tweed with a nice summary of the paper Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence and Structural Estimation, with Marcelo Pedroni and Swapnil Singh.

Research Agenda

Individual expectations matter for macroeconomics.

Mounting evidence shows that what individuals expect predicts their future economic risks (such as job loss, earnings drops, and mortality) far better than traditional econometric data suggests. This reveals that people possess crucial advance information—foreknowledge of their own economic destinies.

My research pioneers the integration of individual expectations data directly into the structural estimation of quantitative macroeconomic models. By bridging this gap, my work demonstrates that advance information fundamentally reshapes:

Consumption Insurance: How effectively households smooth their spending through shocks. I explore this in Pedroni, Singh and Stoltenberg (2025, Journal of Monetary Economics) and Stoltenberg and Uhlendorff (2025, R&R Quantitative Economics )
Policy Design: The optimal structure of social security, public pensions, and tax schemes.
Market Viability: Why private unemployment insurance markets fail or succeed when asymmetric foreknowledge exists.

Here are links to my recent papers:

Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation (2025), with Arne Uhlendorff, Revise & Resubmit at Quantitative Economics.
Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence and Structural Estimation (2025), with Marcelo Pedroni and Swapnil Singh, Journal of Monetary Economics.
On The Existence of Private Unemployment Insurance with Advance Information on Future Job Losses (2023), with Piotr Denderski, Journal of Public Economics. Online Appendix.

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