Research
Publications:
Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey (2024, with Rodrigo Sekkel) Journal of Economic Surveys. [Working paper version]
Gas Price Expectations of Chinese Households (2023, with Zidong An and Simon Sheng) Energy Economics 120(106622). [Working paper version]
Learning-Through-Survey in Inflation Expectations (2023, with GwangMin Kim) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15(2): 254-278. [Working paper version]
Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations? (2023, with Wesley Janson and Randall Verbrugge) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 55(2-3): 559-576. [Working paper version]
Laboratories of Central Banking (2023, with Christina Skinner) Review of Banking and Financial Law. [Working paper version. Featured in Wall Street Journal]
The Legitimacy of the Federal Reserve (2023, with Christina Skinner) Stanford Journal of Law, Business & Finance. [Working paper version]
Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective (2022, with Rupal Kamdar) Journal of Economic Perspectives 36(3): 131-156.
Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Macroeconomic Expectations (2022, with Christos Makridis) Review of Economics and Statistics 104 (2): 293–305. [Working paper version. Covered in New York Times, MarketWatch, The Globe and Mail, CNN]
Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951 (2022, with Gillian Brunet) Economic Inquiry 60(2): 954-974. [Working paper version]
The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations (2022, with Simon Sheng and Tucker McElroy) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. [Working paper version]
Time-of-Day and Day-of-Week Variations in Amazon Mechanical Turk Survey Responses (2022) Journal of Macroeconomics 71(103378). [Working paper version]
Household Expectations and the Release of Macroeconomic Statistics (2021) Economics Letters 207(110041). [Working paper version]
Political Pressure on Central Banks (2021) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. [Working paper version. Access data in Excel and Stata formats here.]
Presidential Antagonism and Central Bank Credibility (2021) Economics and Politics 33(2): 244-263. [Working paper version]
Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis (2021) International Journal of Central Banking 17(2): 81-123.
Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations (2020) Review of Economics and Statistics 102(4): 721-730. [Working paper version. Coverage in Wall Street Journal and NBC10]
Long-Run Inflation Expectations in the Shrinking Upper Tail (2020) Economics Letters 186(108867). [Working paper version]
NGDP Targeting and the Public (2020) The Cato Journal 40(2): 321-342.
Comment on ‘Central Bank Announcements: Big News for Little People?” by Michael Lamla and Dmitri Vinogradov (2019) Journal of Monetary Economics.
Inequality and the Inflation Tax (2019) Journal of Macroeconomics 61(103122).
Inequality, Redistribution, and the Individualism-Collectivism Dimension of Culture (2019) Social Indicators Research 142(3): 1175-1192.
Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump (2018) Journal of Macroeconomics 58: 1-18.
Household Informedness and Long-Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence (2018, with Alex Rodrigue) Southern Economic Journal 85(2): 580-598.
The FOMC versus the Staff, Revisited: When do Policymakers Add Value? (2018, with Samantha Wetzel) Economics Letters 171: 72-75.
Federal Reserve Communication and the Media (2017) Journal of Media Economics 30(4):191-214.
Interest Rate Prominence in Consumer Decisionmaking (2017) Economic Inquiry 52(2): 875-894.
Consumer Forecast Revisions: Is Information Really So Sticky? (2017) Economics Letters. 161:112-115.
Measuring Uncertainty Based on Rounding: New Method and Application to Inflation Expectations (2017) Journal of Monetary Economics 90: 1-12. [Updates and data]
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Household Inflation Uncertainty (2017) The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 17(2).
Fed Speak on Main Street: Central Bank Communication and Household Expectations (2017) Journal of Macroeconomics 52:238-251.
Estimation of Historical Inflation Expectations (2016) Explorations in Economic History 61:1-31.
Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve? (2015) Economics Letters 136: 35-38.
Book and Book Chapters:
Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy (2024) University of Chicago Press.
Serving as a Discussant (2023) in Thriving in Economics, edited by Tatyana Deryugina, Economists for Ukraine—all proceeds benefit humanitarian aid efforts.
Technopopulism and Central Banks (2022) in Populism and the Future of the Fed, edited by James Dorn, Cato Institute.
Working Papers:
Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics (with Jeffrey Campbell and Jane Ryngaert)
Monetary Policy and House Price Expectations (with Pei Kuang and Li Tang)
Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation (with Rupal Kamdar and Jane Ryngaert )
Policy Reports and Non Peer-Reviewed Publications:
Political Party Affiliation and Inflation Expectations (2023) Brookings.
Nominal Income Expectations of Consumers (2023) Mercatus Center.
Book Notes: ‘Can’t We Just Print More Money?’ (2022, with Haverford students Samuel Ross and Devansh Goyal) Central Banking.
‘Inflation Reduction Act’—What’s in a Name? (2022) The Hill.
Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising (2022) Mercatus Policy Brief.
Gas Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Consumer Sentiment (2022) Mercatus Policy Brief.
The Evolution and Role of the Federal Reserve (2022) Testimony, Pennsylvania House Majority Policy Committee hearing on “What Causes Inflation?”
Mission Critical or Mission Creep?: The Research Function of the Federal Reserve Banks (2022, with Christina Skinner) Mercatus Policy Brief.
Average inflation targeting by the Federal Reserve and U.S. consumer expectations (2021) Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospects (2020, with Wesley Janson and Randall Verbrugge). Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations? (2019, with Wesley Janson and Randall Verbrugge). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland WP 19-15
Should the Fed’s dual mandate be changed to center entirely on inflation? Pro/Con: Carola Binder on the Federal Reserve (2017) in The Federal Reserve, Sage Business Researcher.
Interest-Rate Neglect among Millennials could Bring Monetary Policy Challenges (2017). International Banker.
Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations (2016, with Randall Verbrugge). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary.
Monetary Rules and Targets: Finding the Best Path to Full Employment (2016, with Haverford College student Alex Rodrigue). Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Full Employment Project. Also see Huffington Post article.
Practicing Virtue in Teaching and Learning (2016). Teaching and Learning Together in Higher Education.
Rewriting the Rules of the Federal Reserve for Broad and Stable Growth (2015). The Roosevelt Institute.
Testimony on the Full Employment Federal Reserve Act of 2015. Presented at a Congressional briefing hosted by the House Full Employment Caucus on December 1, 2015.
Mexico Today: Paths to a Democratic Future (2015, with Haverford College students Zuzana Manhartova, and Diana Schoder). Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies.
Mexico’s Second Land Reform (2015). Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies.
Brazil: Progress and Pessimism (2014). Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies.
Inequality: Unrigging the Game (2014). Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies