Models

Topic

How to build and use models and how to properly use and interpret simulations. Using ChatGPT to construct simulations without coding.

• models versus theories

• mathematical models versus simulation models

• key uses of simulation

Readings

• Romney, A. K., Weller, S. C., & Batchelder, W. H. (1986). Culture as consensus: A theory of culture and informant accuracy. American Anthropologist, 88(2), 313-338. [^pdf] (focus on the model for competence, rather than the Bayesian estimation of true answers)

  • Borgatti & Halgin summary of consensus analysis

• Gilbert, N. Agent-based models [pdf]

• March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organization Science, 2(1), 71-87. [pdf]  [read carefully, not an easy article. focus on the simulation, pps. 74-81] Cited > 34,000 times.

  • • for fun, look at this article on Kodak [html]. It's relevant to the exploration/exploitation theme

Handouts

• Simulations

• Simulation of the Monty Hall problem

• Lotka-Volterra equations (skim)

• Bayes rule (you should probably Google it as well). The reason for including it here is because it introduces the concept of a baseline expectation, a fundamental concept in modeling. It is also used in the Romney paper

• The beer game

• SIR model in epidimeology

Data

• facs.xlsx

• romney four respondents.xlsx