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Dear Asad Zaman,

Thank you for your submission of the article "Subjective Probability Does Not Exist"

(manuscript ID STS1710-011) to Statistical Science.

With the online journal management system that we are using,

you will be able to track its progress through the editorial process

by logging in at https://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/STS/ and choosing "Track submissions" in

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If you have any questions, please contact me. Thank you for

considering Statistical Science as a venue for your work.

Sincerely,

Cun-Hui Zhang

Editor of Statistical Science

cunhui@stat.rutgers.edu

Submission URL: https://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/STS/

Title:

Subjective Probability Does Not Exist

Authors:

Asad Zaman

Abstract:

We show that the rationality arguments used to establish the existence of subjective probabilities depend essentially on the identification of acting-as-if-you-believe and actually believing. We show that these two ideas, the pretense of knowledge about probabilities, and actual knowledge about probabilities, can easily be distinguished outside the restricted context of choice over special types of lotteries. When making choices over Savage-type lotteries, rational agents will act as if they know their subjective probabilities for uncertain events, but they will reveal their ignorance in other decision making contexts. This means that subjective probabilities cannot be assumed to exist, except when there is objective warrant for them.02-Sep-2017

Dear Dr Zaman:

I am writing in regards to your paper "Subjective Probability Does Not Exist," [Paper JBES-P-2017-0383] that you submitted to the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

I am very sorry to tell you that I have decided to reject your paper without sending it to referees. Because of space constraints, the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics can publish fewer than 10% of submitted papers, and many high quality papers have to be rejected. In cases where we judge that the paper is unsuitable for the journal, sending it out to referees would only cause unnecessary delay.

In the case of your paper, it is not a sufficiently good fit for JBES. JBES is an applied econometrics journal. As such, papers in JBES are normally expected to develop significantly new econometric models or methods and apply them in problems of broad interest. Your paper is about probability theory and may better suited for one of the journals that have published some of the studies preceding yours.

I realize that this initial screening process may sometimes result in errors of judgment, but we hope at least that our relatively quick response will minimize inconvenience and expedite your opportunities to send the paper to another journal. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to consider your work.

Sincerely,

--

Todd Clark

Co-Editor | Journal of Business & Economic Statistics