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The UK Government has announced plans to phase-out the usage of diesel-only trains by 2040 as part of an initiative to reduce carbon emissions.
Source: UK Gov. Dept of Transport
Source: Diesel-only trains in UK to be phased out by 2040 | Financial Times
Number of Diesel Locomotives in Use in UK per Operating Company
There are 1343 Diesel Locomotives in use in the UK in 2018.
The average age of the rolling stock on the railway is 21 years.
Allowing the diesel locomotives to be approx. 29% of the total locomotive fleet. This allows for a total locomotive fleet of approx. 4,000 locomotives.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abellio_ScotRail
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arriva_Rail_London
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C2c
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caledonian_Sleeper
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiltern_Railways
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CrossCountry
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Midlands_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govia_Thameslink_Railway
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Central_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Anglia_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Western_Railway_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Express
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hull_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_North_Eastern_Railway
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyrail
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Western_Railway_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TfL_Rail
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TransPennine_Express
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_for_Wales_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_operating_trains_in_the_United_Kingdom
Source: https://www.railway-technology.com/news/uk-phase-diesel-trains-2040/
Data
The following data sheet examines the total UK energy levels in 2018 and up to 2050 allowing for the phasing out of fossil fuels. It then examines the effects on the energy used by the railway sector, the status of electrification and the ability and effect of electrification of the total UK rail network.
There are 1343 Diesel Locomotives in use in the UK in 2018.
The average age of the rolling stock on the railway is 21 years.
Allowing the diesel locomotives to be approx. 29% of the total locomotive fleet. This allows for a total locomotive fleet of approx. 4,000 locomotives.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abellio_ScotRail
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arriva_Rail_London
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C2c
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caledonian_Sleeper
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiltern_Railways
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CrossCountry
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Midlands_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govia_Thameslink_Railway
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Central_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Anglia_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Western_Railway_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Express
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hull_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_North_Eastern_Railway
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyrail
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Western_Railway_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TfL_Rail
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TransPennine_Express
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_for_Wales_(train_operating_company)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Trains
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_operating_trains_in_the_United_Kingdom
Source: https://www.railway-technology.com/news/uk-phase-diesel-trains-2040/
Data
The following data sheet examines the total UK energy levels in 2018 and up to 2050 allowing for the phasing out of fossil fuels. It then examines the effects on the energy used by the railway sector, the status of electrification and the ability and effect of electrification of the total UK rail network.
Conclusions
By 2050 the overall generation, production and consumption energy available reduces by 55.6% due to the phasing out of fossil fuels.
By 2050 the percentages of energy consumption remain the same but the total energy of each economic sector reduces.
By 2050 the % of the reduced transport energy consumption used by rail will have to increase to allow for the phase out of all diesel locomotives in favour of electric locomotives.
By 2050 the % of the reduced transport energy consumption used by rail will have to increase to allow for the conversion of the remaining part of the rail network to electrification.
Allowing for the rate of locomotive manufacture published by the DfT-led Intercity Express Programme and future Hitachi Rail projects manufacturing and assembly plant in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham of '35 vehicles can be manufactured each month'
Source: http://www.hitachirail-eu.com/products/projects/uk-manufacturing-facility
The replacement of the existing diesel fleet could therefore be accomplished in 3 to 4 years.
During the phasing out of diesel locomotives the existing railway network cannot be used if it is being converted to electricity since the total number of locomotives and so trains will reduce by 1343.
The ability for passengers to use the total rail network will therefore reduce initially as electrification progresses until it is completed.
The speed of electrification is also a concern as pointed out in a House of Commons briefing paper in 2017.
'Since 1997 roughly 60 miles of existing track have been electrified – 50 of them since 2010.'
Source:http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05907/SN05907.pdf Rail Electrification. Louise Butcher 2017
On this basis of 50 miles; 80km; per 7 years. The remaining 10,835 km would take 948 years. It is unlikely therefore that the electrification will be completed before the end of the century.
Post 2050 electrification is likely to become more difficult since there is insufficient energy from renewable sources to allow for total electrification of the existing rail network after the phasing out of fossil fuels without further reducing the energy available to other economic sectors.
Post 2050 the operation of the rail network using renewable energy becomes intermittent since renewable energy sources are by nature intermittent source of energy.
Sources:
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html for UK energy levels. Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/
729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_operating_trains_in_the_United_Kingdom
Source: https://www.railway-technology.com/news/uk-phase-diesel-trains-2040/
Source: http://www.hitachirail-eu.com/products/projects/uk-manufacturing-facility
Source: Rail factsheet 2017. UK GOV.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_the_United_Kingdom#Rail_transport
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/729317/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK__2018.pdf
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