Historic Shipping

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Pre Fossil Fuel Phase Out Shipping

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Post Fossil Fuel Phase Out Shipping with kite energy conservation, Greenhouse gas reduction from ship fuel use.

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Post Fossil Fuel Phase Out Shipping with photovoltaic energy feeding hydrogen fuel cell propulsion.

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Total Global Shipping Fleet Size

As of January 2017, there were 50,000 to 93,000 ships in the world's merchant fleets.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264024/number-of-merchant-ships-worldwide-by-type/ 2017

Source:http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-and-world-trade 2017

Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on data from Clarksons Research.

Source: UN REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2017

Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on data from Clarksons Research.

Notes: Propelled seagoing merchant vessels of 100 gross tons and above, ranked by dead-weight tonnage; beginning-of-year figures. For a complete list of all countries, see http://stats.unctad.org/fleet (accessed 9 September 2017).

Source: UN REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2017

Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/694901/shipping-fleet-statistics-2017.pdf

Total Trade Carried by Shipping

‘About 90% of world trade is carried by the international shipping industry.

Without shipping, the import/export of affordable food and goods would not be possible - half the world would starve and the other half would freeze!’

Source: http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-facts

Source: https://eu.oceana.org/en/shipping-pollution-1

Total Climate Change Emissions Caused by Shipping

‘3.5 to 4 percent of all climate change emissions are caused by shipping, primarily carbon dioxide’

Source: Walker TR, Adebambo O, Del Aguila Feijoo MC, Elhaimer E, Hossain T, Edwards SJ, Morrison CE, Romo J, Sharma N, Taylor S, Zomorodi S (2019). "Environmental Effects of Marine Transportation". World Seas: An Environmental Evaluation. pp. 505–530.

Source: Vidal, John (2009-04-09). "Health risks of shipping pollution have been 'underestimated'". The Guardian. Retrieved 2009-07-03.

‘The International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimates that Carbon dioxide emissions from shipping were equal to 2.2% of the global human-made emissions in 2012 and expects them to rise 50 to 250 percent by 2050 if no action is taken.^’

Source: Walker TR, Adebambo O, Del Aguila Feijoo MC, Elhaimer E, Hossain T, Edwards SJ, Morrison CE, Romo J, Sharma N, Taylor S, Zomorodi S (2019). "Environmental Effects of Marine Transportation". World Seas: An Environmental Evaluation. pp. 505–530.

Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2014 (PDF), International Maritime Organization, archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-10-19

Source: Third IMO GHG Study 2014 (PDF), International Maritime Organization

Methods of Reducing Climate Change Effects from Shipping

‘The potential of technical measures to reduce CO₂ emissions was estimated at 5–30% in new ships and 4–20% in old ships.

These reductions could be achieved by applying current energy-saving technologies vis-à-vis hydrodynamics (hull and propeller) and machinery on new and existing ships (Marintek, 2000).

The vast majority of marine propulsion and auxiliary plants onboard ocean-going ships are diesel engines.

Speed reduction was found to offer the greatest potential for reduction, followed by implementation of new and improved technology.

Speed reduction is probably only economically feasible if policy incentives, such as CO₂ trading or emissions charges are introduced.

A significant shift from a primarily diesel-only fleet to a fleet that uses alternative fuels and energy sources cannot be expected until 2020, as most of the promising alternative techniques are not yet tested to an extent that they can compete with diesel engines (Eyring et al., 2005b).

Furthermore, the availability of alternative fuels is currently limited and time is needed to establish the infrastructure for alternative fuels.

For these reasons, in the short term switching to alternative fuels provides a limited potential in general.

For the long-term (2050), the economical CO₂ reduction potential might be large.

One potential option is a combination of solar panels and sails.

The use of large sails for super tankers is currently being tested in Germany and looks promising and may even be a cost-effective measure in the short term in case oil prices continue to soar.

The use of large sails does not require fleet turnover but can be added to existing vessels (retrofit). The introduction of hydrogen-propelled ships and the use of fuel cell power at least for the auxiliary engines seem to be a possibility as well.

For larger vessels capable and reliable fuel-cell-based ship propulsion systems are still a long way into the future, but might be possible in 2050

Source: Eyring et al., 2005b.

Altmann et al. (2004) concluded that fuel cells offer the potential for significant environmental improvements both in air quality and climate protection.

Source taken from main points of article from IPCC : https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch5s5-3-4.html

‘Scrubber systems (e.g. chemical scrubbers, gas scrubbers) are a diverse group of air pollution control devices that can be used to remove some particulates and/or gases from industrial exhaust streams. ‘

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrubber

Timetable for the Implementation of Measures to Reduce Climate Change Effects from Shipping

‘By 2020, about 2,000 ships could have scrubbers, according to Wartsila, SEB Bank and industry analyst Alpha Tanker.’

‘But Alpha tankers Andrew Wilson called this a “drop in the ocean”, given there are about 90,000 vessels in the global fleet , of which 60,000 ply international routes.’

‘Based on the limited number of manufacturers and time constraints on facilities to install scrubbers, Alpha Tankers estimates no more than 500 ships could be fitted each year. Wartsila puts the figure closer to 300.

So it would take 100 years to fit the global fleet.’

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-fuel-sulphur/new-rules-on-ship-emissions-herald-sea-change-for-oil-market-idUSKCN1II0P

Conclusions

The data indicates a reduction in the total shipping fleet up to the end of the century since fossil fuels are needed to construct shipping.

The stability of populations globally due to the dependency on shipping for trade will be increasingly threatened.

The data indicates a progressively older, out of date, polluting, green house gas producing shipping fleet.

The use of alternative, innovative, prototype technology will increase to mitigate the effects of shipping on climate change and to allow world trade to continue.

If population migration continues; and is increased by climate change making areas of the planet uninhabitable; then the future shipping fleet is likely to be restricted to local areas to sustain local populations and not global populations.