Policy-related work*

* These papers were a part of my policy research work as a Senior Expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (Moscow) and a Senior Research Fellow at MGIMO-University (Moscow), 2010–2021

Working papers (in English)

Long-term forecasting of the size and structure of the Russian financial sector (2017). with Mikhail Mamonov, Vera Pankova, Renat Akhmetov, and Oleg Solntsev. Bank of Russia Working paper No 20. [full text] [full text RUS]

Leading indicators of the business cycle: dynamic logit models for OECD countries and Russia (2015). HSE Working paper BRP 94/EC/2015 [slides] [full text]

Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of credit risk: evidence from Russia (2013). with Mikhail Mamonov. EERC Working paper № 13/10E. [full text]

Journal articles (in Russian)

Maternal employment in Russia: The role of preschools (2021). (with A. Donina, D. Kolesnik) Voprosy Ekonomiki [text] [online appendix] Media coverage [YouTube interview]

The effects of monetary shocks on inflation: high-frequency approach (2021). (with V. Bannikova) Voprosy Ekonomiki №6 [text] [online appendix]

Joint prediction of turning points of credit and business cycles: cross-country analysis (2020). (with M. Mamonov, R. Akhmetov, V. Pankova) Ekonomicheskaya Politika [text] [online appendix] [ slides ENG] [draft ENG]

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: what do large data sets tell us? (2020). (with N. Rostova) Voprosy Ekonomiki 4. [WP RUS] [slides ENG] [WP ENG] [online appendix]

“Credit view” on monetary policy in Russia (2020). Applied Econometrics, 57. [text]

Identification of optimal depth and structure of the financial sector to ensure economic growth, and macroeconomic and financial stability (2018). Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 77(3) (with M. Mamonov, R.Akhmetov, V. Pankova, A. Deshko) [full text] [Bank of Russia WP]

On the effects of monetary policy in Russia: the role of the space of spanned shocks and the policy regime shifts (2018). Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2. [WP] [internet appendix]

Two components of monetary policy in Russia: a large data set estimation (2017). Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 9 (with N. Rostova). [full text]

Developing a high-frequency system of financial instability indicators (2017). Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 6 (with R. Akhmetov, V. Pankova, I. Goloshchapova). [full text]

Monetary policy regimes in Russia: guidelines for further quantitative studies (2017). Voprosy Ekonomiki, 4 [WP version] [link to elibrary]

Estimating the effects of macroeconomic shocks and developing conditional forecasts with BVAR model for the Russian economy (2016). Ekonomicheskaya Politika, 4 (with M. Mamonov). [full text]

A survey of methods for macroeconomic forecasting: potential application to Russia (2016). Voprosy Ekonomiki, 6 (with M. Mamonov). [WP version] [link to elibrary]

Production factors and technological development of national economies: a review of international practices (2015). Studies on Russian Economic Development, 6 (with M. Mamonov, E. Sabelnikova, A. Apokin). [full text] [link to elibrary]

Technical efficiency of national economies: do institutions, infrastructure, and natural resources matter? (2015). Journal of the New Economic Association, 3 (27). (with M. Mamonov) [full text] [link to elibrary]

Predicting turning points of the business cycle: do financial sector variables help? (2013). Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2. [full text] [link to elibrary]

The effects of prudential regulation tightening: stress-test for Russian banks. Voprosy Economiki, 8. (with M. Mamonov, O. Solntsev)

Early warning indicators of financial crises and a forecast of the Russian banking sector dynamics in 2012 (2011). Journal of the New Economic Association 12.(with M. Mamonov, Z. Magomedova, O. Solntsev) [full text] [link to elibrary]

Cash cult in Russia: how to overcome it and what will it lead to? (2011). Voprosy Ekonomiki, 7. (with M. Mamonov, O. Solntsev) [full text] [link to elibrary]

Stress-testing Russian banking system: will banks need government support again? (2010). Voprosy Economiki, 4. (with M. Mamonov, O. Solntsev)