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300.org - return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm

300.org exists to inform people about the Climate Emergency and the need to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration to a safe and sustainable level of about 300 ppm. 

The fundamental position of 300.org is that  “There must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration  to about 300 parts per million”. [1].

300.org urges the World to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) to about 300 parts per million by volume (ppm). In urging a target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300 ppm, 300.org is informed by the advice of top world climate scientists as set out below.  

The World is acutely threatened by man-made global warming due to profligate greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution.  The atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently 387 ppm and increasing at about 2 ppm annually. CO2 is a major GHG but other GHGs include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The current atmospheric GHG concentration in units of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) and including methane and nitric oxides is is about 460 ppm. The average global surface temperature is now about 0.8oC above that in 1900. [2].

The post-1900  temperature increase of 0.8oC has already been associated with very damaging  climatic disruption, specifically increased sea levels; increased energy of tropical hurricanes; ocean warming; increased melting of glaciers; increased sea ice melting in the Arctic and Antarctic; methane release from the Arctic Ocean and tundra;  increased extent of forest fires; island submergence; increased drought; increased floods; coral die off; mass species extinction at 100-1,000 times the rate indicated by  the fossil record; hundreds of thousands of climate refugees; increased damage to forests; spread of insect vector-borne disease; and increased human avoidable mortality (avoidable death, excess mortality, excess death). [3, 4, 5]

The consequences of man-made global warming for ecosystems and species survival are already dire at an average global surface temperature that is currently about 0.8oC above that in 1900. Many scientists now doubt that we can avoid further damaging temperature increases to over 2 oC  above that in 1900. Thus a poll by the UK Guardian of scientists attending the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference found that 90% of respondents did not believe that current political efforts would keep warming to less than 2 oC  above that in 1900.

According to top UK climate scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS fewer than 1 billion people (evidently mostly European) will survive the century due to First World profligacy and unaddressed man-made climate change. [7].

This dire estimate of Dr James Lovelock of fewer than 1 billion survivors this century from unaddressed, man-made global warming translates  to about 10 billion deaths (mostly of non-Europeans and including  3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians) in an already-commenced Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide. [8].

300.org agrees with the Climate Emergency perceptions and goals of the Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group and specifically with what needs to be done. [9].

1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological  sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.

2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.

3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils  coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production  and population growth.

Inspired by the position of Dr Hansen (head, NASA GISS) that “CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm” [10] the world-wide 350.org organization has the excellent position of urging a return of the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 350 ppm or less and indeed is organizing an extremely  important world-wide day of action on 24 October 2009 to publicize this position. [11]. 

The Australian national Climate Action Summit in Canberra (January 2009) involved over 140 community action groups and endorsed a key aim for stabilisation at 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and strong international agreement in line with what science and global justice demands. [12].

The name 300.org reflects support for the implicit 350.org goal of less than 350 ppm CO2 (although, as detailed below,  a goal of "350 ppm" is clearly inadequate according to top climate scientists) and the goal of about 300 ppm CO2 of the 2009 Australian Climate Action Summit [12], the Australian Climate Emergency Network [13] and the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group [14].

Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency facts and requisite actions. Below are quotations from leading climate scientists and biological scientists supporting the need for an atmospheric CO2 concentration in the range 300-350 ppm  i.e. after “rounding down” and applying the “precautionary principle” of the lower safe limit, an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 300 ppm (the upper limit for the last 600,000 years except for the last half century or so).

1. Dr James Hansen  (top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; member of the prestigious  US National Academy of Sciences; 2007 Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the prestigious American Association for the Advancement of Science; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New York, USA). [15].

(a) With 8 UK, French and US climate change scientist co-authors (2008):  “Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2 [carbon dioxide; atmospheric CO2 280 ppm pre-industrial], including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm [parts per million], a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” [10].

(b) In relation to the recent book Climate Code Red. The case for emergency action” by David Spratt and Philip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008): “A compelling case … we face a climate emergency.” [16].

(c)  2007 (Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954): “Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the "albedo flip" property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that "flips" the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.” [17].

(d) 2008, in an address to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional Committee: “CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term  consequences of business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature.” [18].

(e) Dr James Hansen et al. (2008): “Stabilization of Arctic sea ice cover requires, to first approximation, restoration of planetary energy balance. Climate models driven by known forcings yield a present planetary energy imbalance of +0.5-1 W/m2. Observed heat increase in the upper 700 m of the ocean confirms the planetary energy imbalance, but observations of the entire ocean are needed for quantification. CO2 amount must be reduced to 325-355 ppm to increase outgoing flux 0.5-1 W/m2, if other forcings are unchanged. A further imbalance reduction, and thus CO2 ~300-325 ppm, may be needed to restore sea ice to its area of 25 years ago.” [19].

2. Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) (2009): “For some time now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980) are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) … The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as 500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere, which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres. There is little evidence for an extinction at 3 Ma. However, by crossing above a CO2 level of 400 ppm the atmosphere is moving into uncharted territory. At this stage, enhanced methane leaks threaten climate events, such as the massive methane release and fauna extinction of 55 million years ago, which was marked by rise of CO2 to near-1000 ppm.” [20].

3. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research., Germany  (2008): “"It is a compromise between ambition and feasibility. A rise of 2oC could avoid some of the big environmental disasters, but it is still only a compromise…It is a very sweeping argument, but nobody can say for sure that 330ppm is safe. Perhaps it will not matter whether we have 270ppm or 320ppm, but operating well outside the [historic] realm of carbon dioxide concentrations is risky as long as we have not fully understood the relevant feedback mechanisms" [280 ppm is the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration]. [22].

4. Part of a  statement prepared by Dr Barrie Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat), and Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University), and endorsed by 40 leading Australian environment scientists: “Australia to make every effort through its own and international actions to prevent CO2 -- equivalent levels from rising above 450 ppm and global warming from rising above 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures, as is the European target. Further reduction of CO2 levels to 300-350 ppm may be required to have a reasonable probability of restoring a safe climate.” [23].

5. Professor Barry Brook (Sir Hubert Wilkins chair of climate change and director of climate science at the University of Adelaide's Environment Institute ): “If the planet is like an oven, it's still possible to turn down the temperature. The number is 300 and the methods will be extraordinary. In 2007, a climate awareness campaign was launched by well-known environmental author Bill McKibben. It was coined 350.org, with the slogan "350 is the most important number on the planet". The figure refers to a target concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, in parts per million (ppm). This number was drawn from a recent study by a team of climate scientists, led by NASA's Dr James Hansen ... But there is another, more surprising, problem with 350. It's the wrong number. While 350 ppm should give us a reasonable shot at avoiding more than two degrees of warming, that's hardly a safe future to be aiming for. We need only to look at the impacts at less than one degree to know we're already committed to some tough adaptation problems … A target of 300 to 325 ppm CO2 - the levels of the 1950s - is necessary if we wish to cut additional warming and start to roll back the already damaging impacts. As such, 350 is not a target, it's a signpost to a goal. So we're aiming at 350 but the real goal is 300 and we're already at 385”. [24, 25].

6. Australia's premier research organization, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO),  “The Science of Climate Change” (see: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/poqu.pdf ), 2008 : “Since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentrations have risen 37%, methane 150% and nitrous oxide 18%. The global increases in CO2 concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while the increases in methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. The CO2 concentration in 2008 of 383 parts per million (ppm) is much higher than the natural range of 172 to 300 ppm that existed over the last 800,000 years.” [26].

7. Dr Graeme Pearman (former CSIRO Climate director; GP Consulting; interim director, MSI; Monash University Sustainaibility Group, Melbourne),  “The Earth is deglaciating. Since 1979, more than 20% of the Polar Ice Cap has melted away …  Over the last century: global temperatures risen by 0.74 +/- 0.18oC; 11 of last 12 years rank as amongst the 12 warmest years; snow cover decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer; summer period extended 12.3 days … Arctic sea-ice decline of 2.7 +/- 0.6 per cent per decade; sea ;levels have risen at a rate of: 1961-2003 1.9 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1, 1900-2000 1.7 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1; ocean acidification 0.1 pH unit so far … Gases: current carbon dioxide and methane concentrations far exceed those of the last 600,000 years; increases primarily die to fossil fuel use, agriculture and land-use changes; Warming: unequivocal, evident in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising sea levels; warming an effect of human activities – at least 5 times greater than that due to solar output change … extreme temperatures – more frequent, intense, longer-lived heat waves … Recent science strongly reinforces the views that: global warming is occurring; it is primarily a result of human activities." [27].

8. Statement by the technical working group on coral, The Royal Society on 6th July 2009: "The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently. The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to 2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) [and 20 other eminent scientists]". [28].

9. Statement by the World's top climate scientists including Professors James Hansen (US), Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Germany) , Paul Crutzen (Netherlands Nobel Laureate), in the  top scientifc journal Nature that atmospheric CO2 must NOT exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 . " [29].

10. Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Dr Rajendra Pachauri ( U.N.'s top climate scientist, heading  the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC ) (August 2009) : "But as a human being I am fully supportive of that goal [below 350 ppm CO2]. What is happening, and what is likely to happen, convinces me ... [of] moving toward a 350 target". [30].

11. Sir Nicholas Stern (top climate economist, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics, former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003) (September 2009): “[Re 350 ppm CO2] I think it’s  a very sensible long-term target…People have to be aware that is a truly long-term target. We have already passed 350ppm, we are at 390 ppm of CO2 and at 435 ppm of CO2-equivalents right now. It is most important to stop the increase of flows of emissions short term and then start the decline of flows of annual emissions and get them down to levels which will move concentrations of CO2 back down towards 350ppm.” [31].

12. Samuel Fankhauser  (economist and climate change specialist at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics; member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, a government watchdog that monitors UK climate change policy; former Deputy Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); served on the 1995, 2001 and 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) (2009), was reported by IPS thus: “A future global climate change treaty must limit the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million (ppm), and not 450 ppm, the currently proposed level, Samuel Fankhauser told a meeting of pro-environment legislators from the eight most industrialised countries and emerging economies here. But they felt the goal was not feasible. A British economist and researcher on climate change, Fankhauser said the limit he is urging is the only way to avoid the irreversible bleaching of coral in coastal areas, with all that this implies for people's livelihoods and the environment.”.

 

Dr Fankhauser was directly quoted thus : “"Action against climate change might cost up to three percent of the world's GDP during the next 40 years," Fankhauser told IPS. "But this price is still cheaper than doing nothing about it…The global climate change sector is already booming. Revenues generated by measures against climate change have surpassed 500 billion dollars in 2008, and could be worth some two trillion dollars by 2020…[500 million people] live within 100 kilometres of reef ecosystems, and benefit from these services…Another important service provided by coral reefs and healthy seashore ecosystems is climate regulation and coastal protection, through carbon sequestration, waste treatment, and protection against hurricanes and the like.” [32].

13. J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers (top coral scientists), “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, October 2009: “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae.” [33].

14. The president of the Maldive Islands, Mohammed Nasheed, and the Maldive Islands  government (at an underwater Cabinet meeting), Resolution, October 2009:  “With less than one degree of global warming, the glaciers are melting, the ice sheets collapsing, and low-lying areas are in danger of being swamped. We must unite in a global effort to halt further temperature rises, by slashing carbon dioxide emissions to a safe level of 350 parts per million.’’ [33].

15. Bill McKibben (founder, 350.org, that espouses 24 October, UN Day, as also 350 Day for international action of global warming), 23 October 2009: “Physics and chemistry have already announced their bottom line. In the last two years a slew of research has shown that the most carbon we can safely have in the atmosphere is 350 parts per million - indeed, a NASA team said that above that figure we can’t have “a planet similar to the one on which civilization developed or to which life on earth is adapted.’’ We’re already well past the 350 figure, at 390 parts per million, which is why Arctic sea ice is melting, glaciers thawing, and the ocean turning steadily more acidic. To meet the 350 goal will mean a far more aggressive approach than the one Obama and Congress have so far taken (the bill making its way through Congress explicitly aims for a world with 450 parts per million carbon).” [34].

16. Dr Gideon Polya (Convenor, 300.org, that argues for a return to ~300 ppm CO2), 24 October 2009: "Dear Sir/Madam,

24 October UN Day & 350 Day - Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm.

Top climate scientists and the prestigious UK Royal Society say we must DECREASE atmospheric CO2 concentration from the present 390 ppm to 300-350 ppm ASAP for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [1a, 2a].

Unfortunately, world governments and the pro-coal Australian Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and the pro-coal Australian Labor Federal Government (aka the Lib-Labs) want to INCREASE CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. [3a].

Australia is a world leader in per capita GHG pollution – having 0.3% of world population, its domestic and exported GHG pollution is 3% of world total. Yet optimistic interpretation of official Labor policy indicates that Australia’s domestic and exported GHG pollution will be 119% of the 2000 value by 2020 and 173% by 2050. [4a].

The science-ignoring Australian Lib-Labs (US Rep-Dems) are betraying our children, the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere of the Planet. Children should demand that their elders behave responsibly before it is too late and First World-imposed climate genocide destroys 10 billion non-Europeans this century, mostly children.". [5a, 35].

Yours sincerely,

Dr Gideon Polya
Convenor 300.org (see: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ).

17. Catherine Brahic, New Scientist (2007):Ice cores show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have remained between 180 and 300 parts per million for the past half-a-million years. In recent centuries, however, CO2 levels have risen sharply, to at least 380 ppm [2007; 394 ppm in 2011]… So what's going on? It is true that human emissions of CO2 are small compared with natural sources. But the fact that CO2 levels have remained steady until very recently shows that natural emissions are usually balanced by natural absorptions. Now slightly more CO2 must be entering the atmosphere than is being soaked up by carbon "sinks". The consumption of terrestrial vegetation by animals and by microbes (rotting, in other words) emits about 220 gigatonnes of CO2 every year, while respiration by vegetation emits another 220 Gt. These huge amounts are balanced by the 440 Gt of carbon dioxide absorbed from the atmosphere each year as land plants photosynthesise. Similarly, parts of the oceans release about 330 Gt of CO2 per year, depending on temperature and rates of photosynthesis by phytoplankton, but other parts usually soak up just as much - and are now soaking up slightly more…Human emissions of CO2 are now estimated to be 26.4 Gt per year, up from 23.5 Gt in the 1990s, according to the IPCC …Disturbances to the land - through deforestation and agriculture, for instance - also contribute roughly 5.9 Gt per year…Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. Total emissions from volcanoes on land are estimated to average just 0.3 Gt of CO2 each year.” [36].



18. Tariel Mórrígan (Principal Research Associate, Global Climate Change, Human Security and Democracy, Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA) (2010 ): “ Limiting the atmospheric CO2 concentration to no greater than  350 ppm might prevent committed global warming to no more than 2.4oC in the long term, after the temporary delay by climate and ocean thermal inertia reach their peak potenttial climate forcing (i.e. warming) , Stabilization at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq provides a 93% probability of staying  below 2oC above pre-industrial values (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006). Thjerefore a CO2 target as low as 300 ppm may be necessary to stabilize to prevent a dangerous warming of 2oC. Global average temperatures  may stabilize within a likely range of 0.6-1.4oC above pre-industrial values at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq (300 ppm CO2) (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006).” [37].

19. Joan Russow PhD (Global Compliance Research Project)
and Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) (2010): "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global 350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group, and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the 350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm." [38].


20. US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (10 May 2013):On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements made by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching this level during the past week… Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended… The increase in the Northern Hemisphere is always a little ahead of the Southern Hemisphere because most of the emissions driving the CO2 increase take place in the north. Once emitted, CO2 added to the atmosphere and oceans remains for thousands of years. Thus, climate changes forced by CO2 depend primarily on cumulative emissions, making it progressively more and more difficult to avoid further substantial climate change. [39].

21.
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos (2013): "Earth’s energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the state of Earth’s climate. It informs us about the global temperature change “in the pipeline” without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth’s energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human-made climate forcings, including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth’s surface albedo.

If Earth’s mean energy imbalance today is +0.5 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced from the current level of 395 ppm (global-mean annual-mean in mid-2013) to about 360 ppm to increase Earth’s heat radiation to space by 0.5 W/m2 and restore energy balance. If Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore energy balance [64], [75].

The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming. That target is consistent with an earlier analysis [54]. Additional support for that target is provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and paleoclimate, in later parts of our paper. Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than <350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes of forcings including other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise assessments will become available during the time that it takes to turn around CO2 growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target." [40].

 


[1a]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html .

[2a]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm” [Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair)]: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf .

[3a]. Gideon Polya, “G8 failure means climate genocide for Developing World”, Countercurrents, 11 July 2009: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110709.htm .

[4a]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group, “Climate justice and climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”, 2009: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .

[5a]. Gideon Polya, “School war crimes tribunals. Can children save the world’s children?”, MWC News, 8 October 2009: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/33643/42/ . [35].

[1]. Dr Gideon Polya, “How to save the Planet. Accountability, Badge & Credo (ABC Protocol) on MWC News, 14 May 2009: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/30564/42/  ) .

[2]. Dr Andrew Glikson, “The threat to life posed by atmospheric CO2-e over 450 ppm”, submission #34 to the Australian Senate Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), 2009: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/cprs_09/submissions/sub34_web.pdf ; see also http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/cprs_09/submissions/sublist.htm .

[3]. Dr James Hansen (2007), Huge sea level rises are coming – unless we act now”, New Scientist, 2614, 26 July 2007: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html?page=1 .

[4]. Dr  John Holdren (2008), “The Science of Climatic Disruption” (power point lecture): http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

[5]. Dr Gideon Polya (2009), “Global warming, climate emergency” U3A course notes: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/global-warming--global-emergency-course .

[6] David Adam, “World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree” “, Guardian, 14 April 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c  .

[7]. Gaia Vince (2009), “One last chance to save mankind“, New Scientist, 23 January 2009: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true .

[8].  Dr Gideon Polya, “First World Climate Genocide – global warming to kill 2 billion Indians this century “, Sulekha, 2009: http://gideon.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/01/first-world-climate-genocide-global-warming-to-kill.htm  .

[9]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group,  “Climate Emergency facts and required actions”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-emergency-facts-and-required-actions .

[10] J. Hansen et al, “Target atmospheric CO2 – where should humanity aim?” : http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126 ,

[11].  350.org: http://www.350.org/mission  .  

[12]. Greenlivingpedia, “Australian climate Action Summit 2009”: http://www.greenlivingpedia.org/Australian_climate_action_summit_2009 .

[13]. Climate Emergency Network:  http://www.climateemergencynetwork.org/  .

[14]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group:  http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/Home .

[15]. Links to Dr James Hansen and GISS : http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen ; for 1880-present NASA GISS Global Temperature graphed data see: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ .

[16]. Climate Code Red: http://www.climatecodered.net/ .

[17]. James Hansen, Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, (2007): Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Hansen_etal_2.html .

[18]. Dr James Hansen, to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional Committee: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf .

[19]. Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231:  http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_etal.html  (abstract) and http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_etal.pdf .

[20]. Dr Andrew Glikson, “The Methane Time Bomb and the Triple Melt-down", Countercurrents, 2009  : http://www.countercurrents.org/glikson101008.htm .

[21]. Wikipedia, “Hans Joachim Schellnhuber”: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/institute/director .

[22]. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber quoted by David Adam, “Roll back time t safeguard climate, expert warns”, Guardian, 15 Septemebr 2008 : http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/15/climatechange.carbonemissions .

[23]. 350.org, “40 Australian scientists sign on to 350 target, call for urgency oin the fight against climate change”, 22 October 2008: http://www.350.org/en/about/blogs/40-australian-scientists-sign-350-target-call-urgency-fight-against-climate-change .

[24]. Professor Barry Brook, “Six degrees of separation”, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 March 2009: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/earth-hour/six-degrees--of-separation-for-the-planet-20090324-984c.html  .

[25]. Professor Barry Brook, “BraveNewClimate.com: http://bravenewclimate.com/ .

[26]. CSIRO,  “The Science of Climate Change”, 2008:  http://www.csiro.au/files/files/poqu.pdf .

[27]. Dr Graeme Pearman, “Climate change: the evidence, science and current projections”, (2007) (see: http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/126569/graeme-pearman-monash-university-namoi-climate-change-forums.pdf  ).

[28]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm”: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf .

[29]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html .

[30]. Bill McKibben, 350.org, "Pachauri's call for 350ppm is breakthrough moment for climate movement", UK Guardian, 26 August 2009:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/26/pachauri-350ppm-breakthrough-climate  . 

[31]. Simon Leufstedt, “Nicholas Stern endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target””, Green Blog, 12 September 2009: http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/12/nicholas-stern-endorses-350-ppm-as-a-very-sensible-long-term-target/ .

[32]. Julio Godoy, “Climate change target too ambitious, say lawmakers”, IPS, 26 October 2009: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49010 .

[33]. J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, (10), October 2009, 1428-1436: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6N-4X9NKG7-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1072337698&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=6858c5ff7172f9355068393496a5b35d .

[34]. Bill McKibben, “Mr. Obama, be tough on climate change”, The Boston Globe, 23 October 2009: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/10/23/mr_obama_be_tough_on_climate_change/  .

[35] Dr Gideon Polya, “Message from Gideon Polya for 350 Day. 24 October UN Day & 350 Day- Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm”, coalition for a Safe Climate, safeclimate.org:  http://www.safeclimate.org.au/node/188 .

[36]. Catherine Brahic, “Climate myths: human Co2 emissions are too tiny to matter”, New Scientist, 16 May 2007: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11638-climate-myths-human-co2-emissions-are-too-tiny-to-matter.html .

[37]. Tariel Mórrígan, “Target atmospheric greenhouse gas concetrations. Why hunaity shoulkd aim for 350 ppm CO2-e”: http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/papers/pdf/Morrigan_2010_Target%20Atmospheric%20GHG%20Concentrations.pdf .

[38]. Joan Russow  and Cory Morningstar, "Climate change: a global imperative to return to 300 ppm", Canadians For Action on Climate Change", 9 April 2010:

http://canadianclimateaction.wordpress.com/writings-2009-2010/climate-change-a-global-imperative-to-return-to-300-ppm/ .

[39]. NOAA, “CO2 at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm”, 10 May 2103: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/news/7074.html .

[40]. James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos, “Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and Nature”, PLOS One, 8 (12), 3 December 2013: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648


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