300.org exists to inform people about the Climate Emergency and the urgent need to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to a safe and sustainable level of about 300 ppm CO2. This website lists the documented position of over 100 scientists and science-informed climate activists that we must return atmospheric CO2 concentration to about 300 ppm CO2. The excellent climate action organization 350.org advocates a more politically palatable goal of returning to 350 ppm CO2 but, as documented below, many climate scientists and biologists (notably coral scientists) advocate a circa 300 ppm CO2 target for a safe planet for all peoples and all species i.e. a return to roughly the same as the atmospheric CO2 concentration before the start of the Industrial Revolution (280 ppm CO2).
Humanity demands that we speak out, bear witness, and tell the truth for a better world (see “Gideon Polya Writing”: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ and “Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home ).
NEW BOOK: for a detailed account of the Climate Crisis, the worsening Climate Genocide en route to a sustainable human population in 2100 of only 1 billion, and how in 38 key ways Humanity can and must urgently address this existential threat see Gideon Polya, “Climate Crisis, Climate Genocide & Solutions”, 846 pages, Korsgaard Publishing, Germany , 2021: https://www.amazon.com.au/CLIMATE-CRISIS-GENOCIDE-SOLUTIONS/dp/8793987285 .
The fundamental position of 300.org is that “There must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to about 300 parts per million”. [1].
300.org urges the World to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) to about 300 parts per million by volume (ppm). In urging a target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300 ppm, 300.org is informed by the advice of top world climate scientists as set out below.
The World is acutely threatened by man-made global warming due to profligate greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently 400 ppm CO2 and increasing at about 2 ppm annually. CO2 is a major GHG but other GHGs include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The current atmospheric GHG concentration in units of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) and including methane and nitrogen oxides is is about 480 ppm CO2-e. The average global surface temperature is now about 0.8oC above that in 1900. [2].
The post-1900 temperature increase of 0.8oC has already been associated with very damaging climatic disruption, specifically increased sea levels; increased energy of tropical hurricanes; ocean warming; increased melting of glaciers; increased sea ice melting in the Arctic and Antarctic; methane release from the Arctic Ocean and tundra; increased extent of forest fires; island submergence; increased drought; increased floods; coral die off; mass species extinction at 100-1,000 times the rate indicated by the fossil record; hundreds of thousands of climate refugees; increased damage to forests; spread of insect vector-borne disease; and increased human avoidable mortality (avoidable death, excess mortality, excess death). [3, 4, 5]
The consequences of man-made global warming for ecosystems and species survival are already dire at an average global surface temperature that is currently about 0.8oC above that in 1900. Many scientists now doubt that we can avoid further damaging temperature increases to over 2 oC above that in 1900. Thus a poll by the UK Guardian of scientists attending the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference found that 90% of respondents did not believe that current political efforts would keep warming to less than 2 oC above that in 1900.
According to top UK climate scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS fewer than 1 billion people (evidently mostly European) will survive the century due to First World profligacy and unaddressed man-made climate change. [7].
This dire estimate of Dr James Lovelock of fewer than 1 billion survivors this century from unaddressed, man-made global warming translates to about 10 billion deaths (mostly of non-Europeans and including 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians) in an already-commenced Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide. [8].
300.org agrees with the Climate Emergency perceptions and goals of the Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group and specifically with what needs to be done. [9].
1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.
2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.
3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.
Will we achieve the required 300 ppm CO2? It doesn't appear so at present and the reasons are encapsulated in Polya's 3 Laws of Economics. Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide . Polya’s Second Law of Economics explains why we are doomed by neoliberal economics – deceit, lying by omission, lying by commission, and disinformation subvert rational risk management but are remorselessly increasing (see Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents,17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm ).
Some useful compendia about climate change information, requisite actions & expert opinions:
“1% ON 1%: one percent annual wealth tax on One Percenters”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/1-on-1 .
“2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .
300.org: . https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .
“300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .
“Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .
"Climate Revolution Now": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .
“Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/ .
“100% renewable energy by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ .
“Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
“Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .
“Biofuel Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .
“Divest from fossil fuels”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/divest-from-fossil-fuels .
“Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .
“Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .
“Stop air pollution deaths”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-air-pollution-deaths
“Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
“Methane Bomb Threat”: https://sites.google.com/site/methanebombthreat/.
"Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
“Nuclear weapons ban, end poverty and reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/nuclear-weapons-ban .
“Stop state terrorism” : https://sites.google.com/site/stopstateterrorism/ [state and corporate complicity in worsening climate genocide and 7 million annual air pollution deaths from carbon fuel burning].
"State crime and non-state terrorism": https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/ [state and corporate complicity in worsening climate genocide and 7 million annual air pollution deaths from carbon fuel burning].
Some key analyses by Dr Gideon Polya (Melbourne scientist):
Gideon Polya, “Expert Witness Testimony To Stop Gas-Fired Power Plant Installation”, Countercurrents, 14 June, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140613.htm .
Gideon Polya, " Doha climate change inaction. Only 5 years left to act", MWC News, 9 December 2012: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/23373-gideonpolya-climate-change.html .
Gideon Polya, “Australia 's Huge Coal, Gas & Iron Ore Exports Threaten Planet”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150512.htm .
Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm .
Gideon Polya , “2015 A-to-Z Alphabetical List Of Actions And Advocacies For Climate Change Activists”, Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm
Gideon Polya, “100 Ideas For Climate Change Activists Trying To Save The Biosphere And Humanity”, Countercurrents, 10 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya100813.htm .
Gideon Polya, “Biochemical Targets Of Plant Bioactive Compounds”: moral & utilitarian reasons to stop ecocide, speciescide, omnicide & terracide”, Countercurrents, 22 February, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya220215.htm .
Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents, 17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm . Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide.
“Climate change articles by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-articles .
“Climate change websites created by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-websites .
“Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home .
“Gideon Polya Writing”: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ .
Gideon Polya, “Revised Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution For All Countries – What Is Your Country Doing?”, Countercurrents, 6 January, 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya060116.htm
Open Letter to Australian Federal MPs: young betrayed & climate revolution now: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/2015-9-6 .
“Free university education”: https://sites.google.com/site/freeuniversityeducation/ .
Carbon Debt:
Carbon Debt reflects the inescapable future cost in today's dollars of fixing the remorselessly increasing climate damage. Carbon Debt is the historical contribution of countries to the carbon pollution of the atmosphere and can be variously expressed as Gt CO2-e (gigatonnes or billions of tonnes of CO2-equivalent) or in dollar terms by applying a Carbon Price. Thus leading climate economist Dr Chris Hope from 90-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price in US dollars of $150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf ).
The World added 350 Gt C (1285 Gt CO2) to the atmosphere in 1751-2006 (see James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansen”, 2008: http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf ) and currently adds a further 64 Gt CO2-e annually (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang, “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ).
The World has a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 350 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150 per tonne CO2-e = $193 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of (64 Gt CO2-e /year) x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years = $76.8 trillion or a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $270 trillion (about 3 times the annual world GDP of $85 trillion) that is increasing by about 64 Gt CO2-e/year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $9.6 trillion/year or about $10 trillion each year.
By way of a national example, Australia is a world-leading annual per capita GHG polluter with a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 5.9 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2-e/Gt C) x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $3.2 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of 2 Gt CO2-e/year x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years = $2.4 trillion i.e. a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $5.6 trillion (A$7.2 trillion) that is increasing at 2 Gt CO2-e /year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $300 billion (A$385 billion) per year. Thus Australia (population 24 million) with 0.34% of the world's population has 2.1% of the world's Carbon Debt. The Australian Carbon Debt will have to be paid by the young and future generations and for under-30 year old Australians is increasing at about $30,000 (A$38,500) per person per year, noting that the annual Australian per capita income is about $65,000 (A$83,000) (see Gideon Polya, “2015 A-to-Z alphabetical list of actions and advocacies for climate change activists”, Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm ).
Numerous expert opinions advocating a return of the atmosphere to about 300 ppm CO2 ASAP:
Inspired by the position of Dr Hansen (head, NASA GISS) that “CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm” [10] the world-wide 350.org organization has the excellent position of urging a return of the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 350 ppm or less and indeed is organizing an extremely important world-wide day of action on 24 October 2009 to publicize this position. [11].
The Australian National Climate Action Summit in Canberra (January 2009) involved over 140 community action groups and endorsed a key aim for stabilisation at 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and strong international agreement in line with what science and global justice demands. [12].
The name 300.org reflects support for the implicit 350.org goal of less than 350 ppm CO2 (although, as detailed below, a goal of "350 ppm" is clearly inadequate according to top climate scientists) and the goal of about 300 ppm CO2 of the 2009 Australian Climate Action Summit [12], the Australian Climate Emergency Network [13] and the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group [14].
Of course rapid achievement of 350 ppm CO2 and thence 300 ppm CO2 will require rapid cessation of greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and one notes that there are 1 billion Catholics and in relation to climate change Pope Francis in his 2015 Encyclical Letter "Laudato si" demands that in order to save “millions of premature deaths” a “fully borne” Carbon Price be emplaced on greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and that “there is an urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced”. Armed with this science-informed and authoritative moral advice, the billions of Humanity must save themselves and the Biosphere by demanding that fossil fuel burning must rapidly cease and the polluters must pay in full by a Wealth Tax (for historical GHG pollution) and a Carbon Tax (for ongoing GHG pollution)(see Pope Francis, Encyclical Letter “Laudato si”, 2015: http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html and Gideon Polya, “Pope Francis Demands “Fully Borne” Cost of Pollution (Carbon Price) To Prevent “Millions Of Premature Deaths”, Countercurrents, 29 July, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya290715.htm ).
Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency facts and requisite actions. Below are quotations from leading climate scientists and biological scientists supporting the need for an atmospheric CO2 concentration in the range 300-350 ppm i.e. after “rounding down” and applying the “precautionary principle” of the lower safe limit, an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 300 ppm (the upper limit for the last 600,000 years except for the last half century or so).
1. Dr James Hansen (top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; member of the prestigious US National Academy of Sciences; 2007 Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the prestigious American Association for the Advancement of Science; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New York, USA). [15].
(a) With 8 UK, French and US climate change scientist co-authors (2008): “Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2 [carbon dioxide; atmospheric CO2 280 ppm pre-industrial], including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm [parts per million], a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” [10].
(b) In relation to the recent book “Climate Code Red. The case for emergency action” by David Spratt and Philip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008): “A compelling case … we face a climate emergency.” [16].
(c) 2007 (Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954): “Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the "albedo flip" property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that "flips" the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.” [17].
(d) 2008, in an address to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional Committee: “CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term consequences of business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature.” [18].
(e) Dr James Hansen et al. (2008): “Stabilization of Arctic sea ice cover requires, to first approximation, restoration of planetary energy balance. Climate models driven by known forcings yield a present planetary energy imbalance of +0.5-1 W/m2. Observed heat increase in the upper 700 m of the ocean confirms the planetary energy imbalance, but observations of the entire ocean are needed for quantification. CO2 amount must be reduced to 325-355 ppm to increase outgoing flux 0.5-1 W/m2, if other forcings are unchanged. A further imbalance reduction, and thus CO2 ~300-325 ppm, may be needed to restore sea ice to its area of 25 years ago.” [19].
2. Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) (2009): “For some time now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980) are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) … The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as 500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere, which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres. There is little evidence for an extinction at 3 Ma. However, by crossing above a CO2 level of 400 ppm the atmosphere is moving into uncharted territory. At this stage, enhanced methane leaks threaten climate events, such as the massive methane release and fauna extinction of 55 million years ago, which was marked by rise of CO2 to near-1000 ppm.” [20].
3. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research., Germany (2008): “"It is a compromise between ambition and feasibility. A rise of 2oC could avoid some of the big environmental disasters, but it is still only a compromise…It is a very sweeping argument, but nobody can say for sure that 330ppm is safe. Perhaps it will not matter whether we have 270ppm or 320ppm, but operating well outside the [historic] realm of carbon dioxide concentrations is risky as long as we have not fully understood the relevant feedback mechanisms" [280 ppm is the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration]. [22].
4. Part of a statement prepared by Dr Barrie Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat), and Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University), and endorsed by 40 leading Australian environment scientists: “Australia to make every effort through its own and international actions to prevent CO2 -- equivalent levels from rising above 450 ppm and global warming from rising above 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures, as is the European target. Further reduction of CO2 levels to 300-350 ppm may be required to have a reasonable probability of restoring a safe climate.” [23].
5. Professor Barry Brook (Sir Hubert Wilkins chair of climate change and director of climate science at the University of Adelaide's Environment Institute ): “If the planet is like an oven, it's still possible to turn down the temperature. The number is 300 and the methods will be extraordinary. In 2007, a climate awareness campaign was launched by well-known environmental author Bill McKibben. It was coined 350.org, with the slogan "350 is the most important number on the planet". The figure refers to a target concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, in parts per million (ppm). This number was drawn from a recent study by a team of climate scientists, led by NASA's Dr James Hansen ... But there is another, more surprising, problem with 350. It's the wrong number. While 350 ppm should give us a reasonable shot at avoiding more than two degrees of warming, that's hardly a safe future to be aiming for. We need only to look at the impacts at less than one degree to know we're already committed to some tough adaptation problems … A target of 300 to 325 ppm CO2 - the levels of the 1950s - is necessary if we wish to cut additional warming and start to roll back the already damaging impacts. As such, 350 is not a target, it's a signpost to a goal. So we're aiming at 350 but the real goal is 300 and we're already at 385”. [24, 25].
6. Australia's premier research organization, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), “The Science of Climate Change” (see: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/poqu.pdf ), 2008 : “Since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentrations have risen 37%, methane 150% and nitrous oxide 18%. The global increases in CO2 concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while the increases in methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. The CO2 concentration in 2008 of 383 parts per million (ppm) is much higher than the natural range of 172 to 300 ppm that existed over the last 800,000 years.” [26].
7. Dr Graeme Pearman (former CSIRO Climate director; GP Consulting; interim director, MSI; Monash University Sustainaibility Group, Melbourne), “The Earth is deglaciating. Since 1979, more than 20% of the Polar Ice Cap has melted away … Over the last century: global temperatures risen by 0.74 +/- 0.18oC; 11 of last 12 years rank as amongst the 12 warmest years; snow cover decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer; summer period extended 12.3 days … Arctic sea-ice decline of 2.7 +/- 0.6 per cent per decade; sea ;levels have risen at a rate of: 1961-2003 1.9 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1, 1900-2000 1.7 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1; ocean acidification 0.1 pH unit so far … Gases: current carbon dioxide and methane concentrations far exceed those of the last 600,000 years; increases primarily die to fossil fuel use, agriculture and land-use changes; Warming: unequivocal, evident in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising sea levels; warming an effect of human activities – at least 5 times greater than that due to solar output change … extreme temperatures – more frequent, intense, longer-lived heat waves … Recent science strongly reinforces the views that: global warming is occurring; it is primarily a result of human activities." [27].
8. Statement by the technical working group on coral, The Royal Society on 6th July 2009: "The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently. The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to 2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) [and 20 other eminent scientists]". [28].
9. Statement by the World's top climate scientists including Professors James Hansen (US), Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Germany) , Paul Crutzen (Netherlands Nobel Laureate), in the top scientifc journal Nature that atmospheric CO2 must NOT exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 . " [29].
10. Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Dr Rajendra Pachauri ( U.N.'s top climate scientist, heading the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC ) (August 2009) : "But as a human being I am fully supportive of that goal [below 350 ppm CO2]. What is happening, and what is likely to happen, convinces me ... [of] moving toward a 350 target". [30].
11. Sir Nicholas Stern (top climate economist, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics, former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003) (September 2009): “[Re 350 ppm CO2] I think it’s a very sensible long-term target…People have to be aware that is a truly long-term target. We have already passed 350ppm, we are at 390 ppm of CO2 and at 435 ppm of CO2-equivalents right now. It is most important to stop the increase of flows of emissions short term and then start the decline of flows of annual emissions and get them down to levels which will move concentrations of CO2 back down towards 350ppm.” [31].
12. Samuel Fankhauser (economist and climate change specialist at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics; member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, a government watchdog that monitors UK climate change policy; former Deputy Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); served on the 1995, 2001 and 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) (2009), was reported by IPS thus: “A future global climate change treaty must limit the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million (ppm), and not 450 ppm, the currently proposed level, Samuel Fankhauser told a meeting of pro-environment legislators from the eight most industrialised countries and emerging economies here. But they felt the goal was not feasible. A British economist and researcher on climate change, Fankhauser said the limit he is urging is the only way to avoid the irreversible bleaching of coral in coastal areas, with all that this implies for people's livelihoods and the environment.”.
Dr Fankhauser was directly quoted thus : “"Action against climate change might cost up to three percent of the world's GDP during the next 40 years," Fankhauser told IPS. "But this price is still cheaper than doing nothing about it…The global climate change sector is already booming. Revenues generated by measures against climate change have surpassed 500 billion dollars in 2008, and could be worth some two trillion dollars by 2020…[500 million people] live within 100 kilometres of reef ecosystems, and benefit from these services…Another important service provided by coral reefs and healthy seashore ecosystems is climate regulation and coastal protection, through carbon sequestration, waste treatment, and protection against hurricanes and the like.” [32].
13. J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers (top coral scientists), “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, October 2009: “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae.” [33].
14. The president of the Maldive Islands, Mohammed Nasheed, and the Maldive Islands government (at an underwater Cabinet meeting), Resolution, October 2009: “With less than one degree of global warming, the glaciers are melting, the ice sheets collapsing, and low-lying areas are in danger of being swamped. We must unite in a global effort to halt further temperature rises, by slashing carbon dioxide emissions to a safe level of 350 parts per million.’’ [33].
15. Bill McKibben (founder, 350.org, that espouses 24 October, UN Day, as also 350 Day for international action of global warming), 23 October 2009: “Physics and chemistry have already announced their bottom line. In the last two years a slew of research has shown that the most carbon we can safely have in the atmosphere is 350 parts per million - indeed, a NASA team said that above that figure we can’t have “a planet similar to the one on which civilization developed or to which life on earth is adapted.’’ We’re already well past the 350 figure, at 390 parts per million, which is why Arctic sea ice is melting, glaciers thawing, and the ocean turning steadily more acidic. To meet the 350 goal will mean a far more aggressive approach than the one Obama and Congress have so far taken (the bill making its way through Congress explicitly aims for a world with 450 parts per million carbon).” [34].
16. Dr Gideon Polya (Convenor, 300.org, that argues for a return to ~300 ppm CO2), 24 October 2009: "Dear Sir/Madam,
24 October UN Day & 350 Day - Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm.
Top climate scientists and the prestigious UK Royal Society say we must DECREASE atmospheric CO2 concentration from the present 390 ppm to 300-350 ppm ASAP for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [1a, 2a].
Unfortunately, world governments and the pro-coal Australian Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and the pro-coal Australian Labor Federal Government (aka the Lib-Labs) want to INCREASE CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. [3a].
Australia is a world leader in per capita GHG pollution – having 0.3% of world population, its domestic and exported GHG pollution is 3% of world total. Yet optimistic interpretation of official Labor policy indicates that Australia’s domestic and exported GHG pollution will be 119% of the 2000 value by 2020 and 173% by 2050. [4a].
The science-ignoring Australian Lib-Labs (US Rep-Dems) are betraying our children, the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere of the Planet. Children should demand that their elders behave responsibly before it is too late and First World-imposed climate genocide destroys 10 billion non-Europeans this century, mostly children.". [5a, 35].
Yours sincerely,
Dr Gideon Polya
Convenor 300.org (see: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ).
Gideon Polya on why corrupt neoliberal capitalism makes a return to 300 ppm CO2 problematical (2015): "Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide (see Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents, 17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm ).
"
17. Catherine Brahic, New Scientist (2007): “Ice cores show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have remained between 180 and 300 parts per million for the past half-a-million years. In recent centuries, however, CO2 levels have risen sharply, to at least 380 ppm [2007; 394 ppm in 2011]… So what's going on? It is true that human emissions of CO2 are small compared with natural sources. But the fact that CO2 levels have remained steady until very recently shows that natural emissions are usually balanced by natural absorptions. Now slightly more CO2 must be entering the atmosphere than is being soaked up by carbon "sinks". The consumption of terrestrial vegetation by animals and by microbes (rotting, in other words) emits about 220 gigatonnes of CO2 every year, while respiration by vegetation emits another 220 Gt. These huge amounts are balanced by the 440 Gt of carbon dioxide absorbed from the atmosphere each year as land plants photosynthesise. Similarly, parts of the oceans release about 330 Gt of CO2 per year, depending on temperature and rates of photosynthesis by phytoplankton, but other parts usually soak up just as much - and are now soaking up slightly more…Human emissions of CO2 are now estimated to be 26.4 Gt per year, up from 23.5 Gt in the 1990s, according to the IPCC …Disturbances to the land - through deforestation and agriculture, for instance - also contribute roughly 5.9 Gt per year…Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. Total emissions from volcanoes on land are estimated to average just 0.3 Gt of CO2 each year.” [36].
18. Tariel Mórrígan (Principal Research Associate, Global Climate Change, Human Security and Democracy, Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA) (2010 ): “ Limiting the atmospheric CO2 concentration to no greater than 350 ppm might prevent committed global warming to no more than 2.4oC in the long term, after the temporary delay by climate and ocean thermal inertia reach their peak potential climate forcing (i.e. warming) , Stabilization at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq provides a 93% probability of staying below 2oC above pre-industrial values (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006). Therefore a CO2 target as low as 300 ppm may be necessary to stabilize to prevent a dangerous warming of 2oC. Global average temperatures may stabilize within a likely range of 0.6-1.4oC above pre-industrial values at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq (300 ppm CO2) (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006).” [37].
19. Joan Russow PhD (Global Compliance Research Project) and Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) (2010): "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global 350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group, and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the 350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm." [38].
Dr Joan Russow with Richard Levicki (climate activist associated with Global Compliance Research Project) (2009): “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold” …16 November 2009: “Overview. The time for procrastination about climate change has long since passed; the world is in a state of emergency and further inaction is gross negligence. The actual and anticipated impacts of climate change as well as the unintended consequences of climate change, and the short-term and long-term effects that are known and yet to be known have all contributed to the state of emergency. Any denial of the state of emergency is eclipsed by the moral imperative, and legal imperative. to abide by the precautionary principle… As stated in the precautionary principle in the United Nations Framework on Climate Change [UNFCCC], the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing methods to address the threat… Because of the global urgency, there must be the political will to strive to contain the rise in temperature to less than 1oC above the pre-industrial levels and strict time frames must be imposed , so that overall global emissions will begin to be reversed as of 2010. There must be a global target of 30% below 1990 by 2015, 50% below by 2020, 75% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and 100% below by 2050, while adhering t the precautionary principle, the differentiated responsibility principle, and the fair and just transition principle. Under the Framework Convention, every state signatory incurred the responsibility to conserve carbon sinks; thus the destruction of sinks, including deforestation and the elimination of bogs must end. Most scientific work today has become tied to the failing negotiations and is based in keeping the risk of a rise in temperature above 2oC at about 5-40%. The proposal submitted here by the Global Compliance Research Project is based on trying to avoid a temperature above 1oC and returning atmosphere CO2 back to 278 ppm in line with the obligations outlined in the UNFCCC [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] by 2050 and bringing risk down to a minimum. If the dangerous level is to be avoided, emissions pathways to eliminate CO2 must arrive at the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm at least by 2050. [Currently under consideration as a target. To succeed in being below the dangerous 1oC, member states of the United Nations must commit to remove between 1105 GT CO2 and 1842 GT CO2 from the atmosphere (Table 1) …]. [55].
20. US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (10 May 2013): “On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements made by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching this level during the past week… Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended… The increase in the Northern Hemisphere is always a little ahead of the Southern Hemisphere because most of the emissions driving the CO2 increase take place in the north. Once emitted, CO2 added to the atmosphere and oceans remains for thousands of years. Thus, climate changes forced by CO2 depend primarily on cumulative emissions, making it progressively more and more difficult to avoid further substantial climate change.” [39].
21. James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos (2013): "Earth’s energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the state of Earth’s climate. It informs us about the global temperature change “in the pipeline” without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth’s energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human-made climate forcings, including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth’s surface albedo.
If Earth’s mean energy imbalance today is +0.5 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced from the current level of 395 ppm (global-mean annual-mean in mid-2013) to about 360 ppm to increase Earth’s heat radiation to space by 0.5 W/m2 and restore energy balance. If Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore energy balance [64], [75].
The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming. That target is consistent with an earlier analysis [54]. Additional support for that target is provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and paleoclimate, in later parts of our paper. Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than <350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes of forcings including other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise assessments will become available during the time that it takes to turn around CO2 growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target." [40].
21. Thomas Sumner in Science Now (AAAS) on the slow collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (2014): “A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier this week, two teams of scientists reported that the Thwaites Glacier, a keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed, which would release enough meltwater to raise sea levels by more than 3 meters. One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin. Because inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region, both research teams say its collapse would flood West Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in the area... Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet, a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet to collapse.” [41].
[Editor’s note: The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].
22. Dr Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and lead author of a 2014 landmark scientific paper on West Antarctica revealing that the collapse of a large part of Antarctica is now unstoppable (2014): “Controlling climate warming may ultimately make a difference not only about how fast West Antarctic ice will melt to sea, but also whether other parts of Antarctica will take their turn. Several "candidates" are lined up, and we seem to have figured a way to push them out of equilibrium even before warming of air temperature is strong enough to melt snow and ice at the surface. Unabated climate warming of several degrees over the next century is likely to speed up the collapse of West Antarctica, but it could also trigger irreversible retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctica. Whether we should do something about it is simply a matter of common sense. And the time to act is now; Antarctica is not waiting for us.” [42; see also 41, 43, 44, 45].
[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].
23. Dr Ian Joughin, a glaciologist at the University of Washington (UW), Seattle, Washinton, USA, and lead author of a key paper on the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse, of which the early-stage collapse is already underway (2014): “Abstract. Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.” [44].
[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].
24. Dr Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA, on the reported slow-motion collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (2014): “Very crudely, we are now committed to global sea level rise equivalent to a permanent [2012] Hurricane Sandy storm surge… The possibility that we have already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits centuries before arriving.” [45].
[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].
25. Dr T. Goreau (Jamaica delegation climate change expert making a scientific and technical briefing to the Association of Small Island States, UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, December 7-18, 2009,
President of the Global Coral Reef Alliance, an international NGO for restoration of coral reefs, and a member of the Jamaican delegation to UNCCC; previously Senior Scientific Affairs Officer at the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for Development, in charge of Global Climate Change and Biodiversity issues, where he contributed to the original draft of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ): “Summary. The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today’s levels, and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C higher. These estimates are based on real, long term climate records, not on models. We have not yet felt the real impacts of the current excess of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuels, and the data shows that they will in the long run be many times higher than IPCC models project. In order to prevent these long term changes, CO2 must be stabilized at levels below preindustrial levels, around 260 parts per million. CO2 build up must be reversed, not allowed to increase or even to be stabilized at 350 ppm, which would amount to a death sentence for coral reefs, small island developing states, and billions of people living along low lying coast lines. The good news is that all tools for reversing global warming and reducing CO2 to safe levels are ready, proven, and cost effective, but are not being seriously used due to lack of polices and funding...
Current “targets” for CO2 being discussed by UNCCC are way too high to prevent the extinction of coral reefs (which can take no further warming, since most corals have died in the last 20 years from heat shock) and the disappearance of all low lying islands and coastlines where billions of people live. Even a target of 350 ppm is UNACCEPTABLE if we are to avoid dangerous interference with the Earth climate system, causing inconceivable ecological, environmental, and economic disaster. Global warming must not be allowed to continue as would happen by stabilizing CO2 and temperature at present levels. Greenhouse gas buildup MUST BE REVERSED, and CO2 reduced to levels of around 260 ppm, below Pre-Industrial levels. The technologies to do so are proven, cost effective, and capable of being rapidly ramped up, but are not being used on the scale needed due to lack of serious policies and funding to reverse global warming and stabilize the climate system at safe levels. THAT IS WHAT AOSIS AND UNCCC MUST ACCOMPLISH IF WE ARE TO PRESERVE OUR PLANETʼS LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS. The solutions are already in hand. Letʼs all get serious and stop stealing our childrenʼs future!” ” [46].
26. “Target 300” (that advocates a return to 300 ppm CO2 ASAP): “James Hansen, is the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Professor at the Columbia University Earth Institute. He is one of the worlds leading climate scientists. Hansen has recently released a paper titled "Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?" In this paper he concludes that we need to return atmospheric concentrations to between 300-325 ppm CO2 to re-establish summer sea ice in the North Pole. The North Pole summer sea ice is just one of a number of critical climate systems that are needed to maintain a stable safe climate. Without it, other systems, including the Greenland ice mass and the frozen methane trapped in Arctic permafrost, will respond to global warming and add greatly to the problem by creating destructive sea level rise and massive release of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We don't know exactly where safe CO2 levels lie within the 300-325 ppm CO2 range so if we wish to avoid a climate catastrophe, we must aim for 300 ppm CO2 or below. Hansen has said we have at most decades to return our atmospheric greenhouse gas levels to safe levels.” [47].
27. David Spratt on the website called “Climate Code Red” (the title of a key book by David Spratt and Phillip Sutton) (2009): “The central point is that Arctic sea-ice is undergoing dramatic loss in summer, having lost 70-80% of its volume in the last 50 years, most since 2000. Without summer sea-ice, Greenland cannot escape a trajectory of ice-sheet loss leading to an eventual sea-level rise of 7 metres. Regional temperatures in the Arctic autumn are already up about 5C, and by mid-century an Arctic ice-free in summer, combined with more global warming, will be pushing Siberia close to the point where large-scale loss of carbon from melting permafrost would make further mitigation efforts futile. As Hansen told the US Congress in testimony last year, the “elements of a perfect storm, a global cataclysm, are assembled”. In short, if you don’t have a target that aims to cool the planet sufficiently to get the sea-ice back, the climate system may spiral out of control, past many “tipping points” to the final “point of no return”.
And that target is not 350ppm, it’s around 300 ppm. Hansen says Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point decades ago, and in his presentations has also specifically identified 300-325ppm as the target range for sea-ice". [48].
28. Only Zero Carbon: “This is a website venture to make the imperative of aiming to get the global emission of carbon dioxide to zero, general knowledge and at the very least on the table of the UN negotiations for a new climate treaty… The science is definite that only by stopping adding carbon to the atmosphere, can the increase in the global temperature and ocean acidification stop. The IPCC has stated the fact clearly in the 2007 climate change assessment.
Only zero carbon makes all the carbon dioxide science, the mitigation measures, the economics and politics so simple. All you really have to know is that only zero CO2 emissions is the only CO2 target there is. If we do not aim for a zero carbon world we will have no world. We hear of low carbon but how low is low to escape global climate catastrophe? We hardly ever hear of no carbon, and zero carbon emissions is not on the climate change mitigation agenda. The 2C target is certain global climate planetary catastrophe. IC [editor: circa 300 ppm CO2] is the danger limit and we can achieve the 1C limit, but only with emergency drastic action starting now.” [49].
29. Julie Johnston (sustainability adult education consultant BC Canada for Only Zero Carbon): “Only RCP2.6 scenario [peak emissions 2020; zero emissions 2070; thence negative emissions: http://www.onlyzerocarbon.org/uploads/RCP_2_6_dark_green.png ] ... It is scientifically impossible for today's catastrophic atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (400 ppm) to fall unless our industrial carbon emissions stop, and we must get below 350 ppm to prevent planetary catastrophe.” [50].
30. Dr. Peter Carter (a retired physician and environmental health research analyst from Canada) on the importance of the Bolivian climate change position [1C increase maximum; reduce CO2 to 300 ppm CO2 from the current damaging 400 ppm CO2]: “Why the Bolivian government 1ºC climate change position is the only position for the survival of the Global South and for the food security of the entire world… The Bolivian climate change position:
The global average temperature increase of the surface of planet Earth must be limited to 1°C.
Therefore, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration must be limited (which means reduced) to 300 parts per million (ppm).
Industrialized nations must stop emitting carbon. This means a total redevelopment to convert to clean, perpetual and zero carbon energy for all people. What a wonderful idea!
The industrialized nations must extract “billions of tons” of carbon dioxide directly from the air. The fact is that climate change science has totally established that only zero carbon emissions, supplemented by the extraction of carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, can lead to the reduction of today’s catastrophically high level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (390 ppm) and stop it from increasing further. This is the best kept secret of the industrialized nations, because it is a scientific fact that has been known for many years yet ignored.
The most important numbers in the world are 1°C and 0 carbon emissions. Without zero carbon emissions, no other numbers can happen, except higher and higher numbers, leading inevitably to climate catastrophe.” [51].
31. Ben Courtice ( member of Australia’s Socialist Alliance) on the World People’s Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth, Cochabamba, Bolivia (2010): “The conference calls for the world to adopt a target of maximum 1 degree warming, and therefore to aim for 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. To this end the conference called for rich nations to adopt targets of 50% emissions reductions (based on 1990 emissions) by 2017. These are demands being taken to the next international conference in Cancun. These are also the most radical demands being pushed by any of the climate movement in the West, such as the Climate Emergency Network here in Australia..” [52].
32. Phillip Sutton (co-author with David Spratt of “Climate Code Red” and Manager and Strategist of Research and Strategist for Transition Initiation (RSTI) ) (2015): “We stand at a crossroads. The old climate goals are dangerously deficient. What should we be going for instead? Humanity has made a mistake in creating climate conditions beyond the safe zone of the Holocene epoch (i.e. the relatively stable climate of the last 10,000 years). We need to fully correct that mistake, rather than just curtailing its magnitude. Our climate and earth system goals need to be designed to restore optimal conditions – to approximately those of the pre-fossil fuel era. Key climate/earth system parameters that need to be restored to safe levels are:
• ocean heat content
• global surface temperature
• ocean acidity
• sea level.
To prevent massive disruption to coastal areas, the global average surface temperatures and the ocean temperatures need to be lowered to maintain a stable sea level at the height experienced over the last two thousand years. This implies that the average global temperature needs to be reduced to well below the present level – perhaps reversing as much as the full warming experienced in the last 100 years. To restore the ocean acidity to safe levels, the atmospheric CO2 level needs to be cut substantially. To deal with both global warming and ocean acidity issues, it is possible that the atmospheric CO2 level needs to be restored to somewhere between 280 ppm and 300 ppm. To prevent severe climate and ocean acidification impacts expected by 2030 4, net global greenhouse gas emissions should reach zero and temperatures start to fall before then.” [53].
33. Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed ( bestselling author, award-winning investigative journalist, and noted international security scholar, as well as a policy expert, film maker, strategy and communications consultant, change activist, and author of Zero Point, and “A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It” which inspired the award-winning documentary feature film, “The Crisis of Civilization”) (2015) : “The much-vaunted COP21 negotiations in Paris are, despite the claims of world leaders, dead on arrival. Emissions reductions targets are not up for discussion. Those pledges are already on the table, having been put forward voluntarily by each country. Government negotiators in Paris are instead looking at banal details of how and when countries should commit to improving their voluntary pledges, and ensuring "transparency" and "accountability". Catastrophe? But current emissions pledges already guarantee disaster…But the more scientists learn, the more they realise we keep underestimating the risks. Last year, an analysis in Scientific American by Professor Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University explained that new research showed the two degree danger zone could be breached at our present rate of emissions within just 20 years. This means limiting global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to around 405 parts per million (ppm). Even this, Mann explained, is based on “a conservative definition of climate sensitivity that considers only the so-called fast feedbacks in the climate system, such as changes in clouds, water vapor and melting sea ice. Some climate scientists, including James E. Hansen, former head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, say we must also consider slower feedbacks such as changes in the continental ice sheets”. That implies that a safe level of atmospheric CO2 is actually less than 350 ppm [54].
34. Richard Levicki (climate activist associated with Global Compliance Research Project) with Dr Joan Russow (2009): “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold” …16 November 2009: “Overview. The time for procrastination about climate change has long since passed; the world is in a state of emergency and further inaction is gross negligence. The actual and anticipated impacts of climate change as well as the unintended consequences of climate change, and the short-term and long-term effects that are known and yet to be known have all contributed to the state of emergency. Any denial of the state of emergency is eclipsed by the moral imperative, and legal imperative. to abide by the precautionary principle… As stated in the precautionary principle in the United Nations Framework on Climate Change [UNFCCC], the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing methods to address the threat… Because of the global urgency, there must be the political will to strive to contain the rise in temperature to less than 1oC above the pre-industrial levels and strict time frames must be imposed , so that overall global emissions will begin to be reversed as of 2010. There must be a global target of 30% below 1990 by 2015, 50% below by 2020, 75% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and 100% below by 2050, while adhering t the precautionary principle, the differentiated responsibility principle, and the fair and just transition principle. Under the Framework Convention, every state signatory incurred the responsibility to conserve carbon sinks; thus the destruction of sinks, including deforestation and the elimination of bogs must end. Most scientific work today has become tied to the failing negotiations and is based in keeping the risk of a rise in temperature above 2oC at about 5-40%. The proposal submitted here by the Global Compliance Research Project is based on trying to avoid a temperature above 1oC and returning atmosphere CO2 back to 278 ppm in line with the obligations outlined in the UNFCCC [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] by 2050 and bringing risk down to a minimum. If the dangerous level is to be avoided, emissions pathways to eliminate CO2 must arrive at the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm at least by 2050. [Currently under consideration as a target. To succeed in being below the dangerous 1oC, member states of the United Nations must commit to remove between 1105 GT CO2 and 1842 GT CO2 from the atmosphere (Table 1) …]. [55].
35. Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) and Joan Russow PhD (Global Compliance Research Project) (2010): "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global 350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group, and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the 350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm." [38].
36. Janice M. Lough ( Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; co-editor of “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” edited by Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Janice M. Lough; coral, climatology, paleoclimatology ) and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (2009): “By 1979 (when the first observations of mass coral bleaching were recorded) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 337 ppm” [56].
37. Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (The University of Melbourne & Australian Institute of Marine Science; expert in symbiosis, coral reefs, adaptation, acclimatisation, assisted evolution) ) and Janice M. Lough (2009): “By 1979 (when the first observations of mass coral bleaching were recorded) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 337 ppm” [56].
38-55, co-authors to a key paper by Dr James Hansen and colleagues stating that “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
38. Pushker Kharecha (Ph.D. in geosciences and astrobiology from Penn State University research scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research at 104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University, expert on the global carbon cycle and proponent of nuclear energy to save lives from GHG pollution) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
39. Makiko Sato (Ph.D, Physics, Yeshiva University, New York, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University, and climate scientist ) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
40. Valerie Masson-Delmotte (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA; Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE),
41. Fontenay-aux-Roses, France; leading climatologist and paleoclimatologist) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
42. Frank Ackerman (PhD, Harvard; senior economist at Synapse Energy Economics, a public interest-oriented consulting firm in Cambridge, MA; formerly at Stockholm Environment Institute, Tufts University's Global Development and Environment Institute, Tellus Institute, Massachusetts; University of Massachusetts; author of “Can We Afford the Future? Economics for a Warming World” and other books; leading environmental economist) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
43. David J. Beerling ( FRS; Sorby Professor of Natural Sciences in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences at the University of Sheffield, UK; leading expert in the areas of plant evolution, paleobiology, geobiology and biogeochemistry) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
44. Paul J. Hearty (PhD U of Colorado Boulder; University of North Carolina, Wilmington; expert in the areas of Biogeography, Geochemistry, Geology) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
45. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (leading coral scientist, professor and inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland and holder of a Queensland Smart State Premier fellowship) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
46. Shi-Ling Hsu (Larson Professor Florida State University College of Law; formerly a professor at the University of British Columbia School of Law; author of “The Case For A Carbon Tax”; expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, climate change, law and economics, and property) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40]. .
47. Camille Parmesan (Ph.D. in Biological Sciences from the University of Texas at Austin; Professor in the Marine Institute at Plymouth University (UK) where she holds the National Aquarium Chair in the Public Understanding of Oceans and Human Health) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
48. Johan Rockstrom (executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and teaches natural resource management at Stockholm University) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
49. Eelco J. Rohling (a Professor of Ocean and Climate Change in Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, UK) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
50. Jeffrey Sachs (a leading American economist, director of the Earth Institute at 104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University and famous for work on economic development and poverty) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
51. Pete Smith (professor, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK; leading expert in modelling greenhouse gas / carbon mitigation, bio-energy for fossil fuel offsets, and biological carbon sequestration) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
52. Konrad Steffen (glaciologist and the former director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder; director of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
53. Lise Van Susteren (an American psychiatrist in private practice in Washington, DC and environmental activist) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
54. Karina von Schuckmann (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography; ocean heat content, sea level, Earth's energy balance) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
55. James C. Zachos (Earth and Planetary Science Department, University of California Santa Cruz; expert on biological, chemical, and climatic evolution of late Cretaceous and Cenozoic oceans) and numerous colleagues (2013): “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” [40].
56-64 , co-authors to key paper by J.E.N. Veron et al (2009): “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded ∼320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached ∼340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of ∼387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO2 levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030–2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts" [33].
56. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Professor and inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, and the holder of a Queensland Smart State Premier fellowship; a leading expert on climate change and coral reefs).
57. Tim M. Lenton (Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter; worked at the University of East Anglia; awarded the Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; expert on atmosphere and ocean nutrients; worked with Dr James Lovelock on the Gaia model).
Janice M. Lough and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (2009): “By 1979 (when the first observations of mass coral bleaching were recorded) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 337 ppm” (see p1, Janice M. Lough and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, “Introduction: Coral Bleaching- Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” in Madeleine J. H. van Oppen and Janice M. Lough “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences”, Ecological Studies 205, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heuidleberg, 2009 [56].
61. Charles R.C. Sheppard (Principal Research Fellow, Department of Life Sciences, University of Warwick and Coral Reef Conservation Project Wildlife Conservation Society; co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David O. Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean. Their Ecology and Conservation”; coral expert).
62. Mark Spalding (Senior Marine Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Visiting Fellow, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Zoology, 90-Nobel-Laureate University of Cambridge, UK; coral expert).
63. Mary G. Stafford-Smith (Department of Marine Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; coral expert).
64. John E.N. Veron (was the chief scientist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; authored numerous books on coral; leading coral expert).
65-106, co-signatories to an important statement prepared by Dr Barrie Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat), and Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University) that stated: "Reduction of CO2 levels to 300-350 ppm may be required to have a reasonable probability of restoring a safe climate” [23].
65. Dr Marco Amati, Lecturer, Program Director, Environmental Planning, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;
66. Professor Gunther Andersson, Senior Lecturer in Physics/Chemical Physics/Nanotechnology;
67. Professor Snow Barlow, Horticulture and Viticulture, Associate Dean (Strategic Relationships), Melbourne School of Land and Environment. University of Melbourne;
68. Professor John Beardall, Head of School of Biological Sciences, Monash University;
69. Professor Barry Brook, chair of climate change, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Adelaide;
70. Professor Stephen Boyden, Emeritus, Fenner School of the Environment and Society, Australian National University;
71. Professor Nick Costa, Head, School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University;
72. Professor Christopher Dickman, School of Biological Science, University of Sydney;
73. Professor Jim Falk, Director, Australian Centre for Science, Innovation and Society (ACSIS), University of Melbourne;
74. Professor Peter Cawood, director, School of Earth and Geographical Science, University of Western Australia;
75. Professor Larry Frakes, Emeritus, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;
76. Dr Paul Fraser, Chief Research Scientist, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research;
77. Professor Stephen Garnett, Director, School of Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University;
78. Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University)
79. Professor Victor Gostin, Emeritus, School of Earth Science, University of Adelaide;
80. Dr Warwick Grace, Consulting Meteorologist, former Head of the Bureau of Meteorology Special Services, Adelaide;
81. Dr Galen Halverson, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;
82. Professor Rob Harcourt, Director of Marine Science, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;
83. Professor Lesley Head, Head of School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong;
84. Dr Andrew Holmes, Senior Lecturer, Molecular Microbial Ecology, School of Molecular and Microbial Biosciences, The University of Sydney;
85. Dr Michael Laws, Charles Darwin University, Theme Leader Wildlife and Landscape Sciences;
86. Professor Jonathan Majer, Head of Department of Invertebrate Conservation, Department of Environmental Biology, Curtin University of Technology;
87. Professor Jennifer A. Marshall Graves, Head, Comparative Genomics Research Group, Research School of Biological Sciences Australian National University;
88. Professor David McKirdy, Emeritus Professor, visiting research fellow, Geology and Geophysics, University of Adelaide;
89. Professor Paul Memmoth, Director Aboriginal Environments Research Centre, University of Queensland;
90. Dr Luciana Moller, Marine Mammal Research Group, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;
91. Dr E. Charles Morris, Senior Lecturer and group leader, School of Natural Sciences, Hawkesbury Campus, University of Western Sydney;
92. Professor John Morrison, BHP Professor of Environmental Science, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Wollongong;
93. Professor Colin Murray Wallace, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Wollongong;
94. Professor Gerald C. Nanson, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong;
95. Dr Bradley Opdyke, lecturer, Quaternary sedimentologist, Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University;
96. Dr Enzo Palombo, Department of chemistry, biochemistry and Biotechnology, Swinburne University;
97. Dr Barrie Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of “Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat”)
98. Professor Graeme Robertson, Director Muresk Institute, Curtin University of Technology;
99. Professor Patricia Ryan, Emeritus Professor, College of Science and Technology, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;
100. Professor Tom Rich, curator of vertebrate paleontology, Museum Victoria;
101. Professor Peter Schwerdtfeger, Emeriitus Professor of Meteorology, Flinders University Airborne Research Centre;
102. Dr Vladimir Strezov, Senior Lecturer, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University NSW;
103. Professor Ros Taplin, Director, Environmental Management Program, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;
104. Dr John Tibby, Senior lecturer, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;
105. Professor Patricia Vickers-Rich, Director, Monash Science Centre, Chair of Paleontology, School of Geosciences, Monash University;
106. Professor Clive Warren, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland.
107. Oxfam Australia (2011): “Current scientific understanding of the climate system indicates that global temperature rise must be limited to as far below 1.5°C as possible (relative to pre-industrial times) and greenhouse gases stabilised at less than 350 ppm CO2 (or 400ppm CO2-equivalents) in order to avoid more extreme impacts and minimise risks of passing tipping points. Global emissions of greenhouse gases must therefore be cut by at least 42% below 1990 levels by 2020 and reach net-zero by 2050… Applying a rights-based approach, Oxfam Australia calls for immediate action and cooperation at global, regional and local levels, in order to keep global temperature rise as far below 1.5° Celsius as possible (above pre-industrial levels) in order to minimise the impacts of climate change on the lives and livelihoods of poor people around the world. As part of this developing countries and their poor must be supported in their moving to a low carbon economy ” [57]. [57]. (Oxfam Australia, “Policy of the board - climate change, development and social justice ”, 2011: https://www.oxfam.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/oaus-positionpolicies-0312.pdf .
108. Miyoko Sakashita and Shaye Wolf (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California) (2009): “Given the documented detrimental impacts to corals at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~387 ppm CO2, the best-available science indicates that atmospheric CO2 concentrations must be reduced to at most 350 ppm, and perhaps much lower (300-325 ppm CO2), to adequately reduce the synergistic threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and other impacts (Veron et al. 2009; Donner 2009; Hansen et al. 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; McMullen and Jabbour 2009). Clearly, immediate action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that do not jeopardize the petitioned coral species… Conclusion. As demonstrated in this Petition, each of the 83 petitioned coral species faces threats to its continued existence. NMFS must promptly make a positive 90-day finding on this Petition, initiate a status review, and expeditiously proceed toward listing and protecting these species. We look forward to the official response as required by the ESA...
Donner, S.D. 2009. Coping with commitment: projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios. PLoS ONE4(6): e5712. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.
Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana L. Royer, and James C. Zachos. 2008. Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2: 217-231.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A., Hatziolos, M.E. 2007. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318: 1737–1742.
McMullen, C.P. and Jabbour, J. 2009. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, EarthPrint.
Veron, J.E.N., O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith, and A.D. Rogers. 2009. The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2. Marine Pollution Bulletin 58: 1428-1436" [58].
109. Shaye Wolf and Miyoko Sakashita (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California) (2009): “Given the documented detrimental impacts to corals at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~387 ppm CO2, the best-available science indicates that atmospheric CO2 concentrations must be reduced to at most 350 ppm, and perhaps much lower (300-325 ppm CO2), to adequately reduce the synergistic threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and other impacts (Veron et al. 2009; Donner 2009; Hansen et al. 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; McMullen and Jabbour 2009). Clearly, immediate action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that do not jeopardize the petitioned coral species… Conclusion. As demonstrated in this Petition, each of the 83 petitioned coral species faces threats to its continued existence. NMFS must promptly make a positive 90-day finding on this Petition, initiate a status review, and expeditiously proceed toward listing and protecting these species. We look forward to the official response as required by the ESA”[58].
110. Wikipedia: “’Over the past 400,000 years, CO2 concentrations have shown several cycles of variation from about 180 parts per million during the deep glaciations of the Holocene and Pleistocene to 280 parts per million during the interglacial periods. Following the start of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased to 400 parts per million and continues to increase. This has caused the phenomenon of global warming which is mostly attributed to human CO2 emissions” [59].
[59]. Wikipedia, “Carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere .
Statement of the Coral Reef Crisis Working Group Meeting, The Royal Society (6 July 2009): “Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse habitats of the oceans and provide essential ecosystem goods and services to hundreds of millions of people. Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing widespread mortality on the Great Barrier Reef and many other reefs of the world started when atmospheric CO2 exceeded 320ppm. At today’s level of approximately 387ppm CO2, reefs are seriously declining and time-lagged effects will result in their continued demise with parallel impacts on other marine and coastal ecosystems. Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will not prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs from the combined effects of global warming and ocean acidification. To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs the atmospheric CO2 level must be reduced significantly below 350ppm. In addition to major reductions in CO2 emissions, achieving this safe level will require the active removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Given the above, ecosystem-based management of other direct human induced stresses on coral reefs, such as overfishing, destructive fishing, coastal pollution and sedimentation, will be essential for the survival of coral reefs on which so many people depend” [28].
Signatories included the following eminent people:
111. Sir David Attenborough (Working Group Co-chair; famous for preparing and presenting BBC nature programs).
112. Ralph Armond (Director General, Zoological Society of London).
113. Dr Richard Aronsen (President, International Society for Reef Studies).
114. Professor Barry Brook (University of Adelaide).
115. Professor Ken Caldeira (Carnegie Institution for Science).
116. Dr Ann Clarke (The Frozen Ark Project).
117. Professor James Crabbe (University of Bedfordshire).
118. Professor Andreas Fischlin (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH; ).
119. Wendy Foden (IUCN Species Program).
120. Dr James Hansen (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies).
121. Dr Simon Harding (Globe International and ZSL).
122. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg ().
123. Rachel Jones (Zoological Society of London).
124. Professor Tim Lenton (formerly University of East Anglia; Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter; awarded the Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; expert on atmosphere and ocean nutrients; worked with Dr James Lovelock on the Gaia model).
125. Dr James Lovelock FRS (Green College, Oxford).
126. Professor Gordon MacGregor Reid (President, World Association of Zoos and Aquariums).
127. Aylin McNamara (Zoological Society of London).
128. Professor Justin Marshall (President, Australian Coral Reef Society).
130. Paul Pearce-Kelly (Zoological Society of London and IUCN Invertebrate Conservation Group; ; entomology, limnology, zoology).
131. Dr Dirk Petersen (SECORER and Rotterdamm Zoological Society).
132. Dr Peter Reid (Massey University).
133. Dr Chris Reid (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science/Marine Institute).
134. Professor Callum Roberts (University of York).
135. Dr Alex Rogers (International Program on the State of the Ocean).
136. Professor Yvonne Sadovy (IUCN SSC Marine Conservation Sub-Committee).
137. Professor Charles Sheppard (Principal Research Fellow, Department of Life Sciences, University of Warwick and Coral Reef Conservation Project Wildlife Conservation Society; co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David O. Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean. Their Ecology and Conservation”; coral expert).
138. Dr Mark Spalding (Senior Marine Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Visiting Fellow, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Zoology, 90-Nobel-Laureate University of Cambridge, UK; coral expert).
139. Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Department of Marine Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; coral expert).
140. Dr Simon Stuart (IUCN Species Survival Commission).
141. Jon Taylor (World Wildlife Fund).
142. Dr Kristian Teleki (International Coral Reef Action Network).
143. Dr John Turner (Bangor University).
144. Dr Makoto Tsuchiya (The Japanese Coral Reef Society).
145. Professor John E.N, Vernon (Coral Reef Research; was the chief scientist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; authored numerous books on coral; leading coral expert).
146. Dr Andrew Glikson (Australian Earth and Paleoclimate scientist) on looming climate catastrophe, climate genocide and “existential calamity for civilization and nature”(2016): “Little mention is made of the existential threats posed by the climate and nuclear issues in the context of the current elections in the US and Australia. According to the world’s climate research institutions and the bulk of the peer reviewed scientific literature, the Earth has now entered a critical stage at which amplifying feedback effects to global warming transcend points of no return. Manifestations of a shift in state of the climate include; current rise in CO2 at 3.3 parts per million per year, the fastest recorded for the last 65 million years; extreme rises in Arctic temperatures; a plethora of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods and fires; demise of habitats such as the Great Barrier Reef where corals die due to high water temperatures and coral bleaching; and other developments. The extreme rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since the onset of the industrial age, and the corresponding rise in mean global temperatures as a direct result of the rise in carbon gases, pose an existential risk to the future of nature and civilization. The consequences of further burning of the vast carbon reserves buried in sediments and in permafrost and bogs can only result in a mass extinction of species which rivals that of the five great mass extinctions in Earth history… It follows that, where and when the majority of authoritative scientific institutions (NASA, NOAA, NSIDC, Hadley-Met, Tyndale, Potsdam, CSIRO, World Academy of Science, IPCC and so on), based on the bulk of the evidence, indicate beyond reasonable doubt that open-ended emissions of greenhouse gases inevitably lead to a major shift in the terrestrial climate, and thereby the demise of humans and of species, a toleration and/or condoning of continuing emissions by governments contravenes at the very least the spirit of international laws… 1. Since the mid-1980s an abrupt rise in the temperature levels of the atmosphere, driven by an increase in concentration of greenhouse gases arising from release of >600billion ton of carbon (GtC) to the atmosphere is leading to an extreme shift in state of the atmosphere-ocean system, such has no precedence in the recorded geological history, with the exception of events which resulted in the mass extinction of species, including massive volcanism, extra-terrestrial impacts and large-scale release of methane. 2. As a direct consequence of the above, as well as reduction of the transient protection by industrial sulphur dioxide since mid-1980s, mean global temperatures have risen since about 1970 by more than 0.6o Currently, had it not been for the aerosols, mean global temperature would have been higher by an additional near to 1oC. 3. Allowing for the masking effect of sulphur aerosols, the total rise in temperature since the onset of the industrial age ~1750 is reaching levels similar to those of the Pliocene period (~2.6 – 5.3 million years ago). The shift is occurring at the fastest rate recorded by paleoclimate studies. Whereas many species can adapt to gradual environmental changes, the current temperature rise rate resulting from ~2-3 parts per million (ppm) CO2/year may not be sustained. 4. The current change is manifested by an increase in the rate of melting of the major ice sheets, accelerating sea level rise and a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, reflecting elevated energy level of the atmosphere-ocean system. 5.The consequences of continuing carbon emissions and consequent rise of mean global temperatures would render large parts of the Earth’s land surfaces uninhabitable due to temperature rise, droughts, storms and flooding of coastal, deltas and lower river regions by sea level rise – estimated as about 25+/-12 meters under Pliocene conditions, constituting an existential calamity for civilization and nature. 6. Excepting injection of transient short residence-time sulphur aerosols, the arrest of current climate trend would require (A) a meaningful reduction in current rate of carbon emission(~9 GtC/year) and (B) development of new methodologies for draw-down of atmospheric CO2, by at least 50 ppm, requiring research efforts on a global scale” [60].
147. Dr Andrew Glikson (earth scientist and paleoclimatologist, ANU) (2016): “The Paris agreement, being non-binding, is in danger of not being fulfilled by many of the signatories… [need action to] transition from carbon-emitting technologies to alternative clean energy as fast as possible, and focus technology on draw-down (sequestration) of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere” [61].
148. Wrong Kind of Green (post by “Greenhearted”) (2010): “Now, you remember that Upton Sinclair quote from An Inconvenient Truth? “It’s difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not understanding it”? Well, there are lots of people now so tied into this campaign that promotes getting down to between 349 and 351 ppm that they cannot conceive of — and refused here at this conference to support — setting an even lower target of 300 ppm, which is part of the official position of Bolivia. Imagine coming all the way to Bolivia and not supporting Bolivia’s position, which is the only one backed by the science and the only one presented to date that has any hope of safeguarding our future — and refusing to back it simply because your campaign is already in place. What a betrayal! What a lack of compassion for those who are going to be devastated first by climate catastrophe! This admittedly highly successful social media campaign has become such a brand that its proponents are not willing to let it go. They are willing to sell out future generations so that they don’t have to use their imaginations and creativity to “rebrand” their brand and start calling for 300 ppm (or even pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide: 278 ppm). It was a lesson for me in the importance of being open to what’s right, instead of what’s easy. Which I suppose is what our whole climate change fight is all about!” [62].
149. James Hansen et al, (2016): “The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues at a mean rate of about 0.18 °C/decade, with the current annual temperature exceeding +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920. Global temperature has just reached a level similar to the mean level in the prior interglacial (Eemian) period, when sea level was several meters higher than today, and, if it long remains at this level, slow amplifying feedbacks will lead to greater climate change and consequences. The growth rate of climate forcing due to human-caused greenhouse gases (GHGs) increased over 20 % in the past decade mainly due to resurging growth of atmospheric CH4, thus making it increasingly difficult to achieve targets such as limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or reducing atmospheric CO2 below 350 ppm. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere. If rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most of the necessary CO2 extraction can take place via improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content. In this case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions by the current generation would place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction, if they are to limit climate change. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 imply minimal estimated costs of 104–570 trillion dollars this century, with large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, possibly implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both, scenarios that should provide both incentive and obligation for governments to alter energy policies without further delay” [63].
150. HOEGH-GULDBERG. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (leading coral scientist, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and The University of Queensland) re his co-authored paper entitled “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2” (2009): “We are already well above the safe levels for the world’s coral reefs. The proposed 450ppm/2 degree target is dangerous for the world’s corals and for the 500 million people who depend on them. We should not go there, not only for reasons of coral reefs, but for the many other impacts that are extremely likely. We deduce, from the history of coral bleaching, that the safe level for coral reefs is probably about 320 or 325ppm. From fossil air taken from ice cores we know the world has not exceeded 300ppm for at least the last 760,000 years, so we are already in dangerous territory. We are already way outside the limits that mother earth has been operating within for millions of years. Then there is sea level rise. The latest scientific consensus that the minimum sea level rise we can expect globally is 1 m. The IPCC’s earlier estimates on this are now seen as far too conservative. A metre of rise will displace at least 30 million people and contaminate the underground water supplies of many coastal cities with salt. Tens of millions of people are going to be displaced. This is not just about corals. Big issues of food security and regional security are also at stake, and we all need to wake up to the fact that climate change is not simply about warm days.” It will cost less than 1 per cent of GDP growth (over the next 50 years) to sort this problem out. In times of war individual countries have devoted anything from 40 to 70 per cent of their GDP to the war effort, so the effort required to cease emitting carbon is far, far smaller. It is completely affordable, completely achievable.The consequences of not cutting carbon emissions sharply are extremely serious for humanity. It is time all people understood this” (Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg quoted in “Scientists call for urgent “global cooling” to save coral reefs”, University of Queensland News, 8 November 2009: https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2009/11/scientists-call-urgent-global-cooling-save-coral-reefs re J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith, A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin 58 (2009) 1428–1436 ).
151. CORAL SCIENTISTS: 10 leading coral scientists (2009): “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2” [rounded down, less than 350 ppm CO2 is about 300 ppm CO2]. Report: “Australian marine scientists have issued an urgent call for massive and rapid worldwide cuts in carbon emissions, deep enough to prevent atmospheric CO2 levels rising to 450 parts per million (ppm). In the lead up to United Nations Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Professors Charlie Veron (former Chief Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science) and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and The University of Queensland, have urged the world’s leaders to adopt a maximum global emission target of 325 parts per million (ppm). This will be essential, they say, to save coral reefs worldwide from a catastrophic decline which threatens the livelihoods of an estimated 500 million people globally.This is substantially lower than today’s atmospheric levels of 387 ppm, and far below the 450ppm limit envisaged by most governments attending Copenhagen as necessary to restrain global warming to a 2 degree rise, on average” (J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith, A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin 58 (2009) 1428–1436; “Scientists call for urgent “global cooling” to save coral reefs”, University of Queensland News, 8 November 2009: https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2009/11/scientists-call-urgent-global-cooling-save-coral-reefs ).
152. Dr J.E.N. Veron and 9 coral scientist colleagues (2009): “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2” [rounded down, less than 350 ppm CO2 is about 300 ppm CO2]. Report: “Australian marine scientists have issued an urgent call for massive and rapid worldwide cuts in carbon emissions, deep enough to prevent atmospheric CO2 levels rising to 450 parts per million (ppm). In the lead up to United Nations Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Professors Charlie Veron (former Chief Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science) and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and The University of Queensland, have urged the world’s leaders to adopt a maximum global emission target of 325 parts per million (ppm). This will be essential, they say, to save coral reefs worldwide from a catastrophic decline which threatens the livelihoods of an estimated 500 million people globally.This is substantially lower than today’s atmospheric levels of 387 ppm, and far below the 450ppm limit envisaged by most governments attending Copenhagen as necessary to restrain global warming to a 2 degree rise, on average” (J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith, A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin 58 (2009) 1428–1436; “Scientists call for urgent “global cooling” to save coral reefs”, University of Queensland News, 8 November 2009: https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2009/11/scientists-call-urgent-global-cooling-save-coral-reefs ).
153. MCKIBBEN. Bill McKibben (co-founder of 350.org ) (2009) : “”The critical importance of less than 350 ppm CO2”. That’s the title of a new paper from Australian marine scientists.“If CO2 levels are allowed to continue to approach 450 ppm (due by 2030–2040 at the current rates at which emissions are climbing), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from mass coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts associated with climate change,” Professor Charlie Veron, Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, Dr Janice Lough of COECRS and the Australian Institute of Marine Science and colleagues warn in the scientific paper published in the Marine Pollution Bulletin."CO2 emissions are turning the oceans more acidic, causing damage to corals and all life with a carbonate skeletons or shells and, if unchecked, potentially leading to mass extinctions of ocean life like those of the geological past. “We are already well above the safe levels for the world’s coral reefs. The proposed 450ppm/2 degree target is dangerous for the world’s corals and for the 500 million people who depend on them,” Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said. “We should not go there, not only for reasons of coral reefs, but for the many other impacts that are extremely likely" (Bill McKibben, “”The critical importance of less than 350 ppm CO2”, 350.org: https://350.org/critical-importance-less-350-ppm-co2/ ).
154. 350.org. Bill McKibben (co-founder of 350.org ) (2009) : “”The critical importance of less than 350 ppm CO2”. That’s the title of a new paper from Australian marine scientists.“If CO2 levels are allowed to continue to approach 450 ppm (due by 2030–2040 at the current rates at which emissions are climbing), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from mass coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts associated with climate change,” Professor Charlie Veron, Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, Dr Janice Lough of COECRS and the Australian Institute of Marine Science and colleagues warn in the scientific paper published in the Marine Pollution Bulletin."CO2 emissions are turning the oceans more acidic, causing damage to corals and all life with a carbonate skeletons or shells and, if unchecked, potentially leading to mass extinctions of ocean life like those of the geological past. “We are already well above the safe levels for the world’s coral reefs. The proposed 450ppm/2 degree target is dangerous for the world’s corals and for the 500 million people who depend on them,” Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said. “We should not go there, not only for reasons of coral reefs, but for the many other impacts that are extremely likely" (Bill McKibben, “”The critical importance of less than 350 ppm CO2”, 350.org: https://350.org/critical-importance-less-350-ppm-co2/ [rounded down, less than 350 ppm CO2 is about 300 ppm CO2]).
155. 350.org and Center for Biological Diversity (2008): “Climate change is happening much more quickly than previously predicted. 2 Based on observed impacts, future warming commitment, and paleoclimatic evidence, leading climate
scientists including Dr. James Hansen have concluded that current atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of ~392 ppm are “already in the dangerous zone.”3 To preserve a planet resembling the one humans have known, we must reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to less than 350 ppm… Although the observed and committed impacts are dire, we have not passed the point of no return. We still can reverse current effects and minimize future ones, provided that we can achieve and maintain an ambitious global emissions reduction trajectory. Reducing CO2 to between 300 to 350 ppm can restore sea ice, re-establish the balance of ice sheets and glaciers 3 to avoid runaway sea level rise and protect alpine water supplies, and avoid levels of ocean acidification that destroy coral reefs.8 However, Hansen and others have concluded that a 350 ppm target must be achieved within decades to prevent dangerous tipping points and “the possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.”9 “ (Center for Biological Diversity and 350.org, “Achieving a CO2 concentration of 350 ppm or less to avoid catastrophic climate impacts”, 2008: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/climate_law_institute/350_or_bust/pdfs/Not_Just_a_Number-v3.pdf ).
156. CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY. Center for Biological Diversity (a nonprofit organization based in Tucson, Arizona with approximately 1.1 million members and online activists, dedicated to protecting endangered species through legal action, science-informed petitions, and other activism) and 350.org (2008): “Climate change is happening much more quickly than previously predicted. 2 Based on observed impacts, future warming commitment, and paleoclimatic evidence, leading climate scientists including Dr. James Hansen have concluded that current atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of ~392 ppm are “already in the dangerous zone.”3 To preserve a planet resembling the one humans have known, we must reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to less than 350 ppm… Although the observed and committed impacts are dire, we have not passed the point of no return. We still can reverse current effects and minimize future ones, provided that we can achieve and maintain an ambitious global emissions reduction trajectory. Reducing CO2 to between 300 to 350 ppm can restore sea ice, re-establish the balance of ice sheets and glaciers 3 to avoid runaway sea level rise and protect alpine water supplies, and avoid levels of ocean acidification that destroy coral reefs.8 However, Hansen and others have concluded that a 350 ppm target must be achieved within decades to prevent dangerous tipping points and “the possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.”9 “ (Center for Biological Diversity and 350.org, “Achieving a CO2 concentration of 350 ppm or less to avoid catastrophic climate impacts”, 2008: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/climate_law_institute/350_or_bust/pdfs/Not_Just_a_Number-v3.pdf ).
157. NASA. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies News Brief (2008): “Humanity must find a path to reduced atmospheric carbon dioxide, to less than the amount in the air today, if climate disasters are to be averted, according to a study recently published in “Open Atmospheric Science Journal” by a group of ten scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom and France. They argue that such a path is feasible, but requires a prompt moratorium on new coal use that does not capture CO2 and phase-out of existing coal emissions by 2030."There is a bright side to this conclusion" according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies' James Hansen, lead author on the study, "by following a path that leads to a lower CO2 amount we can alleviate a number of problems that had begun to seem inevitable, such as increased storm intensities, expanded desertification, loss of coral reefs, and loss of mountain glaciers that supply fresh water to hundreds of millions of people."Atmospheric carbon dioxide is already 385 parts per million (ppm) and it is increasing by about 2 ppm each year as a result of the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with a smaller contribution from burning of forests. The authors use evidence of how the Earth responded to past changes of CO2 and on-going climate changes to show that atmospheric CO2 has already entered the dangerous zone. The authors suggest that global policies should have an initial target for atmospheric CO2 of 350 ppm. They note that the optimum CO2 level for maintaining a planet similar to that on which civilization developed is likely to be less than 350 ppm, but a 350 ppm target already reveals that dramatic policy changes are needed urgently. By the time such fundamental changes are achieved, knowledge will exist to help fine-tune the target CO2.” (NASA , Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Target CO2: where should Humanity aim?”, News Brief, December 2008: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_13/ ; see Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J. , 2, 217-231: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00410c.html ).
159. Dr James Hansen (2009): “We already have caused atmospheric carbon dioxide to increase from 280 to 387 ppm (parts per million). What science has revealed in the past few years is that the safe level of carbon dioxide in the long run is no more than 350 ppm. The optimum CO2 level to support civilization may be less than 350 ppm, but more precise knowledge is not needed immediately for the purpose of establishing present policies. The conclusion that CO2 must be reduced to a level below 350 ppm was startling at first, but obvious in retrospect. Earth's history shows that an atmospheric CO2 amount of say 450 ppm eventually would yield dramatic changes, including sea level tens of meters higher than today.For reference, 450 ppm yields global warming about 2°C (3.6°F) above the preindustrial level. Such a level of atmospheric CO2 and global warming imply that we would hand our children and grandchildren a condition that would run out of their control, a situation that should be unacceptable to humanity” (James Hansen, “ James Hansen on climate tipping points. And political leadership”, Inside Climate News, 15 July 2009: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20090715/james-hansen-climate-tipping-points-and-political-leadership ).
160. Dr James Hansen (JH) in conversation with Bill McKibben (350.org) (BM) (2010): “BM: The 350.org team has met opposition from some climate activists who demand an even lower target for CO 2 , say 300 ppm or the preindustrial CO 2 amount, 280 ppm. Would the preindustrial CO 2 amount be a reasonable target?
JH: All that we can say for sure now is that the target should be “less than 350 ppm.” And that is all that is needed for policy purposes. That target tells us that we must rapidly phase out coal emissions, leave unconventional fossil fuels in the ground, and not go after the last drops of oil and gas. In other words, we must move as quickly as possible to the post–fossil fuel era of clean energies. Getting back to 350 ppm will be difficult and will take time. By the time we get back to 350 ppm, we will know a lot more and we will be able to be more specific about what “less than 350 ppm” means. By then we should be measuring Earth’s energy balance very accurately. We will know whether the planet is back in energy balance and we will be able to see whether climate is stabilizing… Yes, global average warming is “only” about a degree, but that is actually a lot. During the last major ice age, when New York, Minneapolis, and Seattle were under an ice sheet a mile thick, global average temperature was about 5 degrees colder than it is now. The last time Earth was 2 degrees warmer so much ice melted that sea level was about twenty-five meters (eighty feet) higher than it is today… But remember that weather variability, which can be 10 to 20 degrees from day to day, will always be greater than average warming. And weather variability will become even greater in the future, as I explain in the book, if we don’t slow down greenhouse gas emissions. If we let warming continue to the point of rapid ice sheet collapse, all hell will break loose.” (James Hansen, “A conversation with Bill McKibben”, Grist, 23 December 2010: http://grist.org/article/2010-12-21-a-conversation-with-bill-mckibben/ ; included in a more recent paperback version of James Hansen, “Storms of My Grandchildren).
161. DAVIES. Dr Geoff Davies (geophysicist, author of “Economia: New Economic Systems to Empower People and Support the Living World” , Senior Fellow in geophysics at the Australian National University and has authored 100 scientific papers and a scientific book, Fellow of the American Geophysical Union) (2011): “In a new scientific paper (pdf, 600kb) prominent climate scientist James Hansen and his colleague Makiko Sato argue that the Earth is now at least as warm as it was between earlier ice ages, and further warming by even one degree celsius could result in sea level rising by anything from 5 to 25 meters, with perhaps 5 meters rise by the end of this century. This implies more stringent limits than current, politically-adopted targets to keep warming below two degrees celsius and atmospheric carbon dioxide content below 450 parts per million (ppm). Hansen now says the present targets are “prescriptions for disaster”, and that we must keep warming to less than one degree. This requires reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide to less than 350 ppm, from its present value near 390 ppm, as quickly as possible. Meeting the new targets would require very rapid reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and active efforts to withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Bio-sequestration (using plants to build carbon in soil) is an option that can be undertaken immediately… The old targets, limiting the temperature increase to less than 2 degrees celsius and carbon dioxide to less than 450 ppm, were based on ice core records, which indicated that two previous interglacial periods, about 120,000 and 400,000 years ago, were 2.7-3.7 degrees celsius warmer than the Holocene. The figure below shows two estimates of ice-age temperatures (red) compared with the same reference calculation (blue) based on known ice extents and greenhouse gas concentrations. Panel (a) shows ice-core estimates, featuring quite high peaks in several of the more recent interglacials. At those times sea level was 5 metres or more higher than now. However Hansen and Sato now argue that the ice core record is affected by extra regional warming over the polar ice sheets, and it is not representative of the globe as a whole. They argue the deep sea sediment record is more globally representative, and this shows the earlier temperature peaks to have been no more than 1 degree warmer than now, as can be seen in Panel (b). So in this interpretation, [interglacial] sea level was 5 metres higher despite the temperature being no more than one degree higher than now” (Geoff Davies, “Global warming danger: catastrophic?”, On-line Opinion, 8 February 2011: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=11588 ) [Editor note: plus 2C is now unavoidable, plus 1.5 C is predicted within 4-10 years and plus 1.2C was reached in 2016 - WMO, “Provisional WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2016”, WMO, 14 November2016: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-status-of-global-climate-2016 ].
162. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water) . It is very likely that 2016 will be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures even higher than the record-breaking temperatures in 2015. Preliminary data shows that 2016’s global temperatures are approximately 1.2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to an assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)… According to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), in 2015 there were 19.2 million new displacements associated with weather, water, climate and geophysical hazards in 113 countries, more than twice as many as for conflict and violence. Of these, weather-related hazards triggered 14.7 million displacements. South and East Asia dominated in terms of the highest absolute figures, but no region of the world was unaffected. Equivalent data for 2016 are not yet available. Extreme weather and climate related events influenced by the strong El-Niño in 2015/2016 had significant negative impacts on agriculture and food security. More than 60 million people around the world were affected by these events, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization” (WMO, “Provisional WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2016”, WMO, 14 November2016: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-status-of-global-climate-2016 ) [Editor note: according to geophysicist Dr Geoff Davies: “prominent climate scientist James Hansen and his colleague Makiko Sato argue that the Earth is now at least as warm as it was between earlier ice ages [interglacial 280 ppm CO2] , and further warming by even one degree celsius could result in sea level rising by anything from 5 to 25 meters, with perhaps 5 meters rise by the end of this century” - Geoff Davies, “Global warming danger: catastrophic?”, On-line Opinion, 8 February 2011: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=11588 ].
163. David Spratt (a leading climate change activist) (2018): “The present 1°C of climate warming is already dangerous because critical tipping points have already been crossed. In 2014 glaciologist Eric Rignot said ice retreat in parts of West Antarctica was already “unstoppable”, with the “likely collapse of the rest of the ice sheet, and a 3-5 metre sea level rise”. That is, unstoppable unless temperatures decline below 1°C to the 1970s level [circa 330 ppm CO2]. In Paris in 2015, the rhetoric was of 1.5°C and 2°C, even as the voluntary, unenforceable agreements put warming on a path to 3°C, and perhaps 4°C. But 1.5°C is far from safe. A safe climate would be well less than the current warming, unless you think it is OK to destroy the Arctic ecosystem, tip West West Antarctic glaciers into a self-accelerating melt, and lose the world’s coral reefs, just for starters. Our dilemma is that burning fossil fuels also release a lot of nitrate and sulphate aerosols — the starters for acid rain — which have a very short-term cooling effect, keeping the planet two-thirds of a degree cooler than it would otherwise be….
Carbon drawdown as large as feasible is absolutely necessary, but until you hit zero emissions, it acts to slow the rate of future warming, not to cool the planet. Carbon drawdown cannot be completed fast enough to prevent or reverse the significant tipping points currently crossed and others that are close at hand. Carbon drawdown of around 200 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide would reduce warming by ~0.1°C. At present estimated costs, that’s $10-15 trillion per tenth of a degree of cooling. The most cost-effective large scale drawdown action is the restoration of carbon-dense and biologically rich natural forests. We can reduce the warming impacts of the short-lived gases impacts, of which methane is the largest component. Half the methane emissions are from human actions: fossil fuels, livestock, and landfills/waste. But it is expected non-anthropogenic methane emissions from wetlands and the Arctic will increase, and there is evidence that tropical forest carbon stores and now turning into carbon sources. Thus, without solar radiation management — replacing anthropogenic aerosols from fossil fuel use with anthropogenic aerosols distributed by planes — it will be difficult to avoid hitting 2°C no matter what emissions path we take, and impossible not to overshoot 1.5°C significantly” (David Spratt, “Do we have the capability to reverse global warming within a meaningful time frame?”, Climate Code Red, 12 February 2018: http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/02/do-we-have-capability-to-reverse-global.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimateCodeRed+%28climate+code+red%29 ).
164. James Hansen on the Earth’s energy imbalance and the need for negative CO2 emissions to 342-373 ppm CO2 (2018): “Earth is now substantially out of energy balance. The amount of solar energy that Earth absorbs exceeds the energy radiated back to space. The principal manifestations of this energy imbalance are continued global warming on decadal time scales and continued increase in ocean heat content. Quantitative understanding of Earth’s energy imbalance has improved over the past decade. The upper two kilometers of the ocean, where most of the excess energy is stored, has been well-monitored by the international Argo floats program since 2005. Over the full solar cycle 2005-2016 Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 ± 0.25 W/m2 . The range 0.5 to 1 W/m2 is substantial. For example, in order to restore Earth’s energy balance by reducing atmospheric CO2, which is the principal cause of the imbalance, CO2 would need to be reduced from its 2018 407 amount to 373 ppm if the imbalance is 0.50 W/m2, but to 342 ppm if the imbalance is 1 W/m2 . In reality CO2 is not only continuing to increase, its rate of growth is increasing. The reason is that global population and energy demands continue to increase, and about 85 percent of global energy is provided by fossil fuels…
sea level reached heights as great as 6-9 meters during the prior interglacial period, the Eemian about 120,000 years ago, when global temperature was only about 1°C above the pre-industrial level, i.e., similar to today’s global temperature. During the early Pliocene, several million years ago, when global temperature was at most about 3°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions, sea level probably reached as high as 15-25 meters above today’s level. In other words, there is plenty of vulnerable ice available to cause eventual sea level rise that would inundate today’s coastal cities, in response to a warming level that we could produce this century. Burning all of the readily available fossil fuels would eventually melt almost all the ice on the planet, raising sea level 65-75 meters (more than 300 feet)…
How much CO2 must be extracted from the air today to offset the excess growth of greenhouse gas forcing in a single year, i.e., to reduce climate forcing by 0.015 W/m2? Atmospheric CO2 must be reduced almost exactly 1 ppm CO2 to increase heat radiation to space by 0.015 W/m2. [We actually need to suck more than 1 ppm from the air, because the ocean reacts to the reduction of atmospheric CO2 by increasing the net backflux of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, we can make our point without including this added difficulty in achieving CO2 drawdown.] One ppm of CO2 is 2.12 billion tons of carbon or about 7.77 billion tons of CO2. Recently Keith et al.(2018) achieved a cost breakthrough in carbon capture, demonstrated with a pilot plant in Canada. Cost of carbon capture, not including the cost of transportation and storage of the CO2, is $113-232 per ton of CO2. Thus the cost of extracting 1 ppm of CO2 from the atmosphere is $878-1803 billion” (James Hansen, “Climate change in a nutshell: the gathering storm”, Columbia University, 18 December 2018: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181206_Nutshell.pdf [55 pages]).
165. Dr Andrew Glikson (2019): “According to Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, chief climate advisor to the European Union, “We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet”. As fascism and the horror of murderous hate crimes are on the rise, governments are presiding over runaway climate change leading toward mass extinctions of species, costing the lives of billions and the demise of much of nature, while children are protesting against the betrayal of their future… At +4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperature, projected by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century, life on Earth could be depleted to levels such as existed in the wake of previous mass extinctions of species… Since many in authority do not accept, or only pay lip service to, climate science, it is a good question whether governments would be investing in adaptation measures in time. In particular no plans appear at hand for draw-down of CO2 – the one measure which could potentially arrest global warming. In this regard the reluctance to date to undertake meaningful mitigation measures does not bode well. The powers to be are now presiding over the greatest calamity that has ever befell on humanity and on much of nature” (Andrew Glikson, “The advent of extreme weather events and climate tipping points”, Countercurrents, 16 March 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/03/16/the-advent-of-extreme-weather-events-and-climate-tipping-points/ ).
166. Julio Friedman (Senior Research Scholar at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University) on CO2 removal, Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR, Negative Carbon Emissions and carbon harvesting (2018): “Call it CO2 removal, CDR or carbon harvesting, a bunch of policies, reports, and studies are live that take the work head on. CDR is built on a fundamental understanding of climate math, namely that conventional mitigation approaches to GHG emissions won’t be enough. The basis for CDR is acknowledging that we’re losing time, we’re likely to “overshoot” emissions, and that we have a moral responsibility to clean up our mess and restore the world’s atmosphere to how we found it (a breezy 300 ppm CO2). September [2018] brings us five noteworthy announcements on CDR… The first was signing SB100 into law. Led by Kevin DeLeon in the CA Senate, it calls for big power sector goals, including a 60% renewable portfolio standard by 2030 and a 100% zero-carbon energy standard by 2045. This bill puts the state power sector on track to zero emissions, and puts carbon on the front burner as the target and the goal… This will likely mean that some kind of CDR will be needed to balance the books. The same day he signed SB100, Gov. Brown also signed an audacious executive order — by 2045 the whole energy sector of the state should be carbon neutral and net carbon negative emission after 2045” (Julio Friedman, “Carbon dioxide removal: all the rage”, Medium.com, 14 September 2018: https://medium.com/@friedmann2/carbon-dioxide-removal-all-the-rage-4c048d5ed15e ).
167. David Roberts (US writer) on California’s SB100 and 100 percent carbon-free energy by 2045 – noting that residual “dirty” energy for electricity and transport implies negative CO2 emissions (2018): “California is one signature away from committing to 100 percent clean electricity. If it does so, it will become the most significant political jurisdiction in the world to take that step, by a wide margin. (It is the world’s fifth-largest economy!) The state is on the verge of making history — again. SB 100, the bill sponsored by state Sen. Kevin de León, would set a target of 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045. It passed the California Senate last year, passed the state Assembly on Tuesday, and was reconciled by the Senate on Thursday. All that remains is a signature from Gov. Jerry Brown… A great deal of its appeal (though not all) can be traced to its flexibility. SB 100 actually sets three targets for California: 50 percent renewables by 2026, 60 percent renewables by 2030 [and] 100 percent carbon-free energy by 2045. Note the difference between “renewables” and “carbon-free”” (David Roberts, “California just adopted its boldest energy target yet: 100% clean electricity “, Vox, 10 September 2010: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/8/31/17799094/california-100-percent-clean-energy-target-brown-de-leon ).
168. Carbon 180 (formerly Center for Carbon Removal) and New Carbon Economy Consortium on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies (2018): “ Direct air capture [DAC] —the process of separating CO2 from air or seawater—faces one central technical challenge: low CO2 concentration. Remarkable recent progress, including the creation of several companies and commercial projects, validates that DAC is technically and economically feasible, with almost immediate applications. Key applications include the food and beverage market, carbonate and urea production, … enhanced oil recovery, carbon-removal services, and CO2 conversion to products for large markets, such as concrete and other carbonaceous building materials, commodity chemicals, and fuels. However, succeeding at scale requires materials, devices, and systems beyond what exist today. Most importantly, it requires substantial cost reductions to less than $100 per ton. Today’s costs are substantially higher, at $400-600 per ton… CO2 conversion and use, also referred to as CO2U or carbon capture and use (CCU), creates products that can generate revenue—doing well by doing good (also called carbon-to-value). These pathways have the potential to create new manufacturing and industrial bases in the new carbon economy while reducing or removing carbon pollution. Like DAC, CO2 conversion and use faces a material science challenge, with a strong need to develop new catalysts, electrolyzer anodes, and membranes. Lifecycle analysis and policy support are also needed for CO2U approaches to achieve climate goals and substantial market penetration. Even with improved policy and analytic support, an innovation agenda is required to improve the cost, performance, and net carbon reduction of CO2U… Natural weathering of most rocks (e.g., silicates, carbonates, and oxides) binds CO2 from the atmosphere but typically takes centuries or millennia … Accelerated weathering, however, can draw CO2 from the air in hours to months, binding it permanently into mineral phases, including those used commercially” (Carbon 180 (formerly Center for Carbon Removal) and New Carbon Economy Consortium, “Building a new carbon economy. An innovation plan”: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b9362d89d5abb8c51d474f8/t/5b98383aaa4a998909c4b606/1536702527136/ccr02.innovationplan.FNL.pdf ).
169. Christa Marshall (US energy writer) on CDR and the Energy Futures Initiative (2018): “A think tank led by former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced today it is developing a federal plan to promote technologies for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The Energy Futures Initiative's air-capture project aims to bring new focus and dollars to an idea that proponents say is necessary to hit long-term climate targets. Supporters say carbon-removal strategies are an important step toward decarbonizing the energy sector by the end of the century… Two years ago, European scientists wrote in the journal Science that air capture and other "negative emissions" technologies are an "unjust gamble," distracting the world from viable climate solutions… Yet researchers from the company Carbon Engineering published an analysis in Joule last year finding that the cost of captured CO2 from the atmosphere could range from about $232 to below $100 a ton” (Christa Marshall, “Moniz group launches “substantial” CO2 air capture project” , E&E News, 10 September 2018: https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060096409/print ).
170. The Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering on Greenhouse gas (GHG) removal (GGR) (2018): “In 2015, governments from around the world met to agree a framework that would minimise the negative consequences of climate change. The Paris Agreement sets a goal to limit global average temperature increase to ‘well below 2°C above preindustrial levels’, and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5°C.This is an ambitious task requiring rapid decreases in emissions and, by the second half of the century, net-zero emissions. In some sectors, notably agriculture and aviation, greenhouse gas emissions will be difficult to eliminate entirely, so we will need technologies to compensate by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere… Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) methods involve two main steps: the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and their storage for long periods. The process is best established for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal. Removal is achieved through a wide variety of approaches, involving either biology, accelerating natural inorganic reactions with rocks, or engineered chemical processes. The carbon is then stored in land-based biomass, sub-surface geological formations, the oceans, or the built environment… Integrated assessment models provide evidence that a cumulative GGR of around 810 GtCO2 is expected to be required from now until 2100 to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C on pre-industrial times. This is the equivalent to about 15 years of 2017 greenhouse gas emissions… Of the integrated assessment model scenarios considered at the time of the Paris Agreement, 87% of those that expect to achieve 2°C, and all those that expect 1.5°C, involved GGR as well as emissions reductions. Subsequent models have supported this view. Only very dramatic and rapid emissions reduction will allow the 2°C target to be met without GGR, and there are no recognised routes to achieve 1.5°C without GGR… The scale of GGR required is large. Most global scenarios indicate that several hundred GtCO2 must be removed by the end of the century to meet 2°C, and close to a thousand GtCO2 for 1.5°C . This compares to current annual CO2emissions of c. 40 GtCO2, indicating the scale of the activity required to achieve sufficient GGR. These scenarios also indicate that GGR will need to commence now and ramp-up rapidly in subsequent decades” (The Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering, , “Greenhouse gas removal”, 2018: https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/royal-society-greenhouse-gas-removal-report-2018.pdf ).
Global pre-anthropogenic carbon balance in Gt CO2 with human perturbations to the carbon cycle in the decade 2016-2017 in bold:
Organic material on land (15,000), +400 pa (from atmosphere by photosynthesis ), -400 pa (back to atmosphere by oxidation), + 11 pa (from atmosphere due to increased photosynthesis), - 5 pa (to atmosphere by deforestation).
Atmosphere (2,100 + 900), + 34 pa (from limestone & fossil fuels via cement manufacture & carbon fuel burning, respectively).
Ocean (150,000), + 290 (from atmosphere by photosynthesis), - 290 (back to atmosphere by oxidation), +9 pa (from atmosphere leading to accumulated acidification of 0.1 pH unit).
“Integrated assessment models provide evidence that a cumulative GGR [Greenhouse Gas Removal] of around 810 GtCO2 is expected to be required from now until 2100 to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C on pre-industrial times” (The Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering, , “Greenhouse gas removal”, 2018: https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/royal-society-greenhouse-gas-removal-report-2018.pdf ).
171. Nicola Jones (a freelance journalist based in Pemberton, British Columbia, just outside of Vancouver, and with a background in chemistry and oceanography, she has written about the physical sciences, most often for Nature. Scientific American, Globe and Mail, and New Scientist, and serves as the science journalist in residence at the University of British Columbia) (2017): “Last year [2016] will go down in history as the year when the planet’s atmosphere broke a startling record: 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide. The last time the planet’s air was so rich in CO2 was millions of years ago, back before early predecessors to humans were likely wielding stone tools; the world was a few degrees hotter back then, and melted ice put sea levels tens of meters higher
… To find a time when the planet’s air was consistently above 400 ppm you have to look much farther back to the warm part of the Miocene, some 16 million years ago, or the Early Oligocene, about 25 million years ago, when Earth was a very different place and its climate totally dissimilar from what we might expect today. There’s a lot of debate about both temperatures and CO2 levels from millions of years ago. But the evidence is much firmer for the last 800,000 years, when ice cores show that CO2 concentrations stayed tight between 180 and 290 ppm, hovering at around 280 ppm for some 10,000 years before the industrial revolution hit. (There have been eight glacial cycles over these past 800,000 years, mostly driven by wobbles in the Earth’s orbit that run on 41,000 and 100,000 year timescales). This is the benchmark against which scientists usually note the unprecedented modern rise of CO2. Frighteningly, this modern rise of CO2 is also accelerating at an unusual rate. In the late 1950s, the annual rate of increase was about 0.7 ppm per year; from 2005-2014 it was about 2.1 ppm per year
… Even with zero emissions, getting back to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm is “sort of a 10,000-year proposition,” says Keeling. Atmospheric concentrations would drop relatively quickly at first, as the surface ocean sucked up a good chunk of the excess carbon in the air (that would take on the order of 100 years); then some atmospheric carbon would work its way into the deeper ocean (in about 1,000 years); then the planet’s carbon cycle — for example, the weathering of rocks — would soak up most of the rest over about 10,000 years
… If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted… CO2 will need to be reduced… to at most 350 ppm,” Columbia University climate guru James Hansen has said. We sailed past that target in about 1990, and it will take a gargantuan effort to turn back the clock” (Nicola Jones, “How the world passed a carbon threshold and why it matters”, Yale Environment, 26 January 2017: https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters ).
172. Professor James Hansen (2017): “ If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted… CO2 will need to be reduced… to at most 350 ppm” (Professor James Hansen qiouoted in “Globalk CO2 concentrations just passed 400 parts per million”, <400ppm: http://400.350.org/ ).
173. Healthy Climate Alliance: “The Healthy Climate Alliance and 300×2050 have both been founded to do something about moving our legacy climate reform culture into the twenty-first century… So because 1 C warming is already dangerous, and large negative emissions are needed to limit warming to 2 C, we have no choice. We must implement emissions reductions strategies, rule and law, and in addition, begin not only large, but very large negative emissions. Simply limiting warming to 1.5 C requires negative emissions of 9 to 32 gigatons of CO2 annually until 2100. This is in addition to full implementation of the Paris agreement of 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2050 and net zero by 2080… We first started taking carbon dioxide out of the air in submarines to keep our sailors safe in World War II. In Squamish, British Columbia today, there is an industrial scale pilot project taking carbon dioxide out of the air for $75 a ton with this exact same technology. It uses simple lye (sodium hydroxide)” (Healthy Climate Alliance, “ Healthy Climate Alliance and 300 ppm CO2 by 2050 (300×2050), Climate Discovery: https://climatediscovery.org/healthy-climate-alliance-and-300-ppm-co2-by-2050-300x2050/ ).
174. Peter Fiekowsky (physicist and head of Citizen’s Climate Lobby 100 year plan) (2016): “We know that getting CO2 levels back to pre-industrial levels of less than 300 ppm will get us back to 0°C warming, eventually… Getting our planet back to 0°C warming requires carbon dioxide removal–getting CO2 levels back down to about 300 ppm, and probably cooling the planet while we’re doing that. Cooling may be needed to prevent our environment and civilization from collapsing before we finish the CDR [Carbon dioxide removal] . It’s just those two things, both of which we know how to do. Emission reductions relate to the CDR action, but it’s shocking to realize that while we will need to remove about 150 ppm of CO2 from the atmosphere to get back to 300 ppm, creating a “wartime mobilization to reduce emissions” would produce only about 15 ppm reduction compared to our current path–1/10 of what is needed. That same investment in CDR could get us back to 300 ppm by 2050. Saving the climate is no longer all about energy, it’s about CDR” (Peter Fiekowsky, “Two degrees warming is no longer viable. Zero degrees is”, Brain Science & Climate Change, 23 December 2016: https://brainscienceandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2016/12/23/two-degrees-warming-is-no-longer-viable-zero-degrees-is/ ).
175. Climate Discovery (2018): “ The Healthy Climate Alliance asks, why aren’t we seeking to restore our climate to its original healthy state? The answer for 30 years has been that limiting emissions was enough. We could decarbonize our infrastructure, limit warming to 2 degrees C and let nature take its course. This 30 year-old philosophy isn’t working out so well, either in academia or in real life. A growing number of scientists, advocates, business people, elected leaders, and citizens are realizing that even 1 C or warming is far too much. The Healthy Climate Alliance and 300×2050 [300 ppm CO2 by 2050] have both been founded to do something about moving our legacy climate reform culture into the twenty-first century” (The “The Healthy Climate Alliance and 300×2050”, Climate Discovery, 4 February 2018: https://climatediscovery.org/healthy-climate-alliance-and-300-ppm-co2-by-2050-300x2050/ ).
176. The Healthy Climate Alliance (2018): “The Healthy Climate Alliance is an education, networking, and advocacy program of the non-profit Foundation for Climate Restoration… HCA’s first and most urgent climate restoration goal is to protect the Arctic. Next is to reverse—not just slow—global warming, which requires drawing down a trillion tons of CO2 from the air. We have scalable, safe solutions to reach these goals. We have the means to affordably and safely restore the quality of our air to pre-industrial levels and return life to vast ocean deserts. Switching to renewables, reversing global warming, removing carbon dioxide, and rebuilding Arctic ice are goals that match the scale of the challenge and the scope of what we want” (The Healthy Climate Alliance, “We can restore a healthy climate for our children”, Healthy Climate Alliance, September 2018: https://healthyclimatealliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/HealthyClimate-2pager-20180911.pdf ).
177. Steven Pinker paraphrasing physicist David Keith(2018): "But in a 2013 book the physicist David Keith makes a case for a from of climate engineering that is moderate, responsive, and temporary... And "temporary' means that the program would be designed only to give humanity a breathing space until it eliminates greenhouse gas emissions and brings the CO2 in the atmosphere back to pre-Industrial levels [i.e. circa 300 ppm CO2]" ( Steven Pinker, “Enlightenment Now. The case for reason, science, humanism and progress” , Penguin, 2018, page 153; however for a critique of this lengthy, neoliberal, unwarrantedly optimistic, Panglossian book that is soft on climate action see Gideon Polya, “Review: “Enlightenment Now” by Steven Pinker – Climate Genocide & Avoidable Mortality Holocaust Ignored”, Countercurrents, 7 September 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/09/review-enlightenment-now-by-steven-pinker-climate-genocide-avoidable-mortality-holocaust-ignored ).
178. Gideon Polya, letter to MPs, media & actvists re 2019 Climate Strike: "Dear fellow humanitarian, On Friday 20 September 3 million people worldwide and 0.3 million in Australia participated in the Climate Strike rallies organized by local high school students. My 2-sided placard at the Melbourne rally (100,000 people) said NO COAL OR GAS / 300 ppm CO2 – as soon as possible we must stop fossil fuel exploitation and return atmospheric CO2 to the pre-Industrial Revolution level of about 300 ppm CO2 (from the present disastrous 410 ppm CO2) for a safe and sustainable environment for all peoples and all species.
Assuming a damage-related Carbon Price of US$200 per tonne CO2-equivalent (Dr Chris Hope, Cambridge), the World has a Carbon Debt of about $200 trillion that is increasing at $10 trillion per year. By way of example, Australia, has a Carbon Debt (in US dollars) of $5 trillion that is increasing at $400 billion per year and at $40,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians. Australia has 0.3% of the world’s population but, with its greenhouse gas (GHG) exports included, contributes 5% of global GHG pollution.
Australia is among world leaders for the following 15 climate criminal activities: (1) annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, (2) methanogenic livestock exports, (3) natural gas exports, (4) recoverable shale gas reserves that can be accessed by hydraulic fracturing (fracking), (5) coal exports, (6) land clearing, deforestation and ecocide, (7) speciescide or species extinction, (8) coral reef destruction , (9) whale killing and extinction threat through global warming impacting on krill stocks, (10) terminal carbon pollution budget exceedance, (11) per capita Carbon Debt, (12) ultimately GHG generating iron ore exports, (13) climate change inaction, (14) Climate Genocide (its coal exports ultimately kill 75,000 people per year), and (15) increasing GHG pollution post-Paris .When the young fully appreciate the enormous burden of inescapable Carbon Debt imposed on them by their forebears then there will be not 3 million but 30 million, and even 300 million, out in the streets. The grownups have failed – only the children can save the Planet through Climate Revolution now (non-violent of course), rejecting climate criminality, intergenerational inequity, intergenerational injustice, Climate Genocide, speciescide, ecocide, omnicide and terracide (for details and documentation see Gideon Polya, “Millions join Global School Climate Strike – we are running out of time”, Countercurrents, 22 September 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/09/millions-join-global-school-climate-strike-we-are-running-out-of-time )."
179. Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and climate scientist, Australian National University, Canberra) (2019): “ As the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has risen to 408 ppm and the total greenhouse gas level, including methane and nitrous oxide, combine to near 500 parts per million CO2-equivalent, the stability threshold of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, currently melting at an accelerated rate, has been exceeded. The consequent expansion of tropics and the shift of climate zones toward the shrinking poles lead to increasingly warm and dry conditions under which fire storms, currently engulfing large parts of South America (Fig. 1), California, Alaska, Siberia, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Angola, Australia and elsewhere have become a dominant factor in the destruction of terrestrial habitats…
Allowing for the transient albedo enhancing effects of sulphur dioxide and other aerosols, mean global temperature has potentially reached ~2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Current greenhouse gas forcing and global mean temperatures are approaching Miocene-like (5.3-23 million years-ago) composition. The current carbon dioxide rise rate exceeds the fastest rates estimated for the K-T asteroid impact (66.4 million years-ago) and the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Temperature Maximum) hyperthermal event (55.9 million years ago) by an order of magnitude…
To try and avoid a global calamity abrupt reduction in carbon emissions is essential, but since the high level of CO2-equivalent is activating amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean, global attempts to down-draw about of 50 to 100 ppm of CO2 from the atmosphere, using every effective negative emissions, is essential. Such efforts would include streaming air through basalt and serpentine, biochar cultivation, sea weed sequestration, reforestation, sodium hydroxide pipe systems and other methods. But while $trillions continue to be poured into preparation of future wars, currently no government is involved in any serious attempt at the defense of life on Earth” (Andrew Glikson, “The fatal nexus – atmospheric CO2 and the mass extinction of species”, Countercurrents, 6 November 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/11/the-fatal-nexus-atmospheric-co2-and-the-mass-extinction-of-species ).
180. Dr Gideon Polya (2018): “We need to urgently cut carbon emissions and eventually cease greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution in coming decades. Ignored by Mainstream media is the need to drawdown atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from the present dangerous and damaging 410 parts per million CO2 (410 ppm CO2) to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm CO2 i.e. negative GHG emissions. However a feasible, large-scale mechanisms for doing this, namely Direct Air Capture (DAC), is expensive, leaving future generations with an inescapable present Carbon Debt of about $130 trillion that is remorselessly increasing at about $10 trillion per year” (Gideon Polya, “Huge Carbon Debt & Intergenerational Injustice – CO2 Drawdown Necessity, 300.org & 300 ppm CO2 Target”, Countercurrents, 6 June 2018: https://countercurrents.org/2018/06/huge-carbon-debt-intergenerational-injustice-co2-drawdown-necessity-300-org-300-ppm-co2-target/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20countercurrents%2FeoKx%20%28Countercurrents%29 .
181. Professor Sean Cornell et al., Pennsylvania State University Integrate: “If we look at the Earth’s history, it is extremely rare for Earth to have 400 ppm of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere. Paleoclimate research using ice core data shows that about 3 million years ago the atmosphere contained 400 ppm carbon dioxide. Then the sea levels were 10 – 40 m higher than today. In more recent Earth history, 800,000 years ago, during an interglacial period, there was 300 ppm CO2. As we discussed above, ice core data show that fluctuations in the Earth’s sea levels parallel atmospheric CO2 levels. All this is evidence for the argument that as we continue to pour more CO2 into the atmosphere with continued fossil fuel energy reliance, we can expect sea temperatures and sea levels to continue to rise in tandem with the CO2 concentration. There are many other implications that go along with this scenario. We must remember the positive feedback mechanisms such as that in which melting of Arctic ice reduces the albedo effect – or the reflective nature of the white snow and ice. These types of mechanisms have the effect of accelerating warming and therefore increasing melting of ice and in turn increasing sea levels”( Pennsylvania State University Integrate, “Recent sea level rise and anthropomorphic impacts… These data [Fig. 4.15] show that sea level has risen an average of 20 cm (200 mm) over the last 80 years. This equates to a sea level rise rate of about 2.5 mm/year for the 80-year interval. If we take another look, including data collected since 2000, NOAA scientists show that the rate is accelerating again and a rate of 3.2 mm/yr. has been established as the most current estimate. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set estimated projected sea level rise at between 0.5 and 1.5 m by 2100. Many scientists argue that this is a too conservative estimate. These estimates are based largely on the thermal expansion of seawater as the ocean surface heats up. However, the possibility of a significant contribution from melting of ice sheets in Greenland and East and West Antarctic is not currently an important factor in IPCC predictions. Stay current as this research develops and estimates are adjusted accordingly” ( Sean Cornell et al., Pennsylvania State University Integrate: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1508 ).
182. Dr Gideon Polya (conclusion of a detailed Submission to an Australian Senate Inquiry )(2009): “Climate Emergency Actions URGENTLY Required 1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists. 3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth. This submission has been made in the public interest” (Gideon Polya, “Senate Inquiry Submission by Dr Gideon Polya, biological chemist, to the Senate Select Committee on Climate Policy”, 2009: file:///C:/Users/Gideon/AppData/Local/Temp/sub273_pdf.pdf ).
184. Climate Science For Sceptics (2019): “Unfortunately, at the current rate of increase you can easily see that without urgent action we are likely to reach the 2 degree rise around mid-century. Indeed, many scientists say that it may already be too late to avoid a 2 degree rise, much less a 1.5 degree rise because of the lag between CO2 and temperature rise…
So as the oceans warm a little, the dissolved CO2 starts to come out of the ocean into the atmosphere - raising the concentration as the blue lines in the graph above show. Now this extra CO2 in the atmosphere is a strong greenhouse gas and so the atmosphere warms further - releasing yet more CO2 from the ocean. More water vapour is evaporated as well, adding further to the [positive feedback] effect. And so it goes on. Well fortunately not forever! (Note: It DID go on forever on Venus and that's why its average temperature is something like 450 degrees! But Venus is closer to the Sun and that's why things got out of control.) Fortunately, as water vapour builds up in the atmosphere, clouds are more able to form and they reflect sunlight and that provides a negative feedback which eventually slows the warming. As well, by the time the warming becomes significant the Milankovitch cycles tend to reverse and so cool things again. (In fact that's why the Earth would be cooling toward another ice age now if it weren't for the extra CO2 we have put in the atmosphere)…
The Earth is huge and takes a long time to warm up or cool down, so even with the rapid increase in the greenhouse effect it can't respond very quickly. It will take many decades for the temperature of the Earth to 'catch up' with the extra warming already locked in by the CO2 levels we now have. In other words, there is a significant time lag involved as the warming catches up with the CO2 level. Or as it is sometimes put, there is a built in warming already in the system that we can't avoid, even if we were to stop adding more CO2 today. This is what the scientists try to calculate with their computer models. Many think that in order to avoid a two degree rise (and certainly a 1.5 degree rise) we will not only have to urgently stop producing CO2, but we probably will have to reduce the amount in the atmosphere somehow - and that will not be easy or risk free - anything but. And VERY expensive…
So, to imagine that somehow the extra roughly 20 billion tonnes of CO2 that are appearing in the atmosphere every year is not the result of the approximately 40 billion tonnes or so that we are putting into the atmosphere every year by burning fossil fuels really does beggar belief. The science is very clear. And of course most of the other half of the 40 billion tonnes is going into the ocean - making it more acidic and thus threatening ocean life and coral reefs. (Strictly speaking it is making the ocean 'less alkaline' - but it amounts to the same thing and has the same effect.) So to sum up, there is no serious scientific doubt that our climate is changing and it is the result of our use of fossil fuels. The next question then is "Does it matter?" From what we have seen above, clearly we have to expect warmer climates and rising seas. And clearly these changes will be something not experienced by the Earth for well over a million years. There is then, every reason to believe that, yes, it will matter” (Climate Science For Sceptics, “Is our climate changing ? and Why?”, 2019: http://www.cs4s.net/climate-2.html ).
References.
[1a]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html .
[2a]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm” [Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair)]: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf .
[3a]. Gideon Polya, “G8 failure means climate genocide for Developing World”, Countercurrents, 11 July 2009: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110709.htm .
[4a]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group, “Climate justice and climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”, 2009: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .
[5a]. Gideon Polya, “School war crimes tribunals. Can children save the world’s children?”, MWC News, 8 October 2009: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/33643/42/ . [35].
[1]. Dr Gideon Polya, “How to save the Planet. Accountability, Badge & Credo (ABC Protocol) on MWC News, 14 May 2009: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/30564/42/ ) .
[2]. Dr Andrew Glikson, “The threat to life posed by atmospheric CO2-e over 450 ppm”, submission #34 to the Australian Senate Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), 2009: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/cprs_09/submissions/sub34_web.pdf ; see also http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/cprs_09/submissions/sublist.htm .
[3]. Dr James Hansen (2007), Huge sea level rises are coming – unless we act now”, New Scientist, 2614, 26 July 2007: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html?page=1 .
[4]. Dr John Holdren (2008), “The Science of Climatic Disruption” (power point lecture): http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .
[5]. Dr Gideon Polya (2009), “Global warming, climate emergency” U3A course notes: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/global-warming--global-emergency-course .
[6] David Adam, “World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree” “, Guardian, 14 April 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c .
[7]. Gaia Vince (2009), “One last chance to save mankind“, New Scientist, 23 January 2009: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true .
[8]. Dr Gideon Polya, “First World Climate Genocide – global warming to kill 2 billion Indians this century “, Sulekha, 2009: http://gideon.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/01/first-world-climate-genocide-global-warming-to-kill.htm .
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[28]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm”: http://static.zsl.org/files/statement-of-the-coral-reef-crisis-working-group-890.pdf .
[29]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html .
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[31]. Simon Leufstedt, “Nicholas Stern endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target””, Green Blog, 12 September 2009: http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/12/nicholas-stern-endorses-350-ppm-as-a-very-sensible-long-term-target/ .
[32]. Julio Godoy, “Climate change target too ambitious, say lawmakers”, IPS, 26 October 2009: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49010 .
[33]. J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, (10), October 2009, 1428-1436: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6N-4X9NKG7-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1072337698&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=6858c5ff7172f9355068393496a5b35d .
[34]. Bill McKibben, “Mr. Obama, be tough on climate change”, The Boston Globe, 23 October 2009: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/10/23/mr_obama_be_tough_on_climate_change/ .
[35] Dr Gideon Polya, “Message from Gideon Polya for 350 Day. 24 October UN Day & 350 Day- Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm”, coalition for a Safe Climate, safeclimate.org: http://www.safeclimate.org.au/node/188 .
[36]. Catherine Brahic, “Climate myths: human Co2 emissions are too tiny to matter”, New Scientist, 16 May 2007: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11638-climate-myths-human-co2-emissions-are-too-tiny-to-matter.html .
[37]. Tariel Mórrígan, “Target atmospheric greenhouse gas concetrations. Why humanity shoulkd aim for 350 ppm CO2-e”: http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/papers/pdf/Morrigan_2010_Target%20Atmospheric%20GHG%20Concentrations.pdf .
[38]. Joan Russow and Cory Morningstar, "Climate change: a global imperative to return to 300 ppm", Canadians For Action on Climate Change", 9 April 2010:
[39]. NOAA, “CO2 at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm”, 10 May 2103: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/news/7074.html .
[40]. James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos, “Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and Nature”, PLOS One, 8 (12), 3 December 2013: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648 .
[41]. Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing .
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[45]. Dr Richard Alley quoted in Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing .
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{47]. Target 300: http://target300.org/1introduction.html .
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[51]. Peter Carter, “Why the Bolivian government 1ºC climate change position is the only position for the survival of the Global South and for the food security of the entire world”, Wrong Kind of Green: http://wrongkindofgreen.org/tag/300-ppm/
[52]. Ben Courtice, “Pachamam, bien vivir, and the Climate Debt”, Climate & Capitalism, 5 May 2010: http://climateandcapitalism.com/2010/05/06/pachamama-bien-vivir-and-the-climate-debt/ .
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War is the penultimate in racism and genocide the ultimate in racism. It is very powerful to quote expert opinion. Thus eminent physicist Stephen Hawking on the key existential threats facing Humanity (2018): “We see great peril if governments and societies do not take action now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change” (Stephen Hawking, “Brief Answers to the Big Questions”, John Murray, 2018, Chapter 7). Most of the following websites alphabetically list expert opinions in 4 inter-connected key areas, namely “Reverse climate change”, “Stop lying and censorship”, “End war and genocide”, and “Free Palestine”, Everyone is invited to make use of this substantial resource and to feel free to disseminate this list to everyone they can.
REVERSE CLIMATE CHANGE
“1% on 1%: one percent annual wealth tax on One Percenters”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/1-on-1 .
“2 degrees C”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2-degrees-c .
“100% renewable energy by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ .
“300 ppm CO2 ASAP: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-ppm-co2-asap .
“2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .
“300.org”: . https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .
“300.org climate crisis glossary”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/300-org-climate-crisis
“300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .
“Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
“Banyule Climate Action Now”: https://sites.google.com/site/banyuleclimateactionnow/ .
“Biofuel Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .
“Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .
“Climate crisis articles”: https://sites.google.com/site/climatecrisisarticles/home .
“Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
“Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .
"Climate Revolution Now": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .
“Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/ .
“Divest from fossil fuels”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/divest-from-fossil-fuels .
“Eco-socialism, green socialism”: https://sites.google.com/site/ecosocialismgreensocialism/
“Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .
“Methane bomb threat”: https://sites.google.com/site/methanebombthreat/ .
“Nuclear weapons ban, end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban .
“Older people and climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/olderpeopleandclimatechange/home .
“Science and economics experts: carbon tax needed and not carbon trading”, 300.org: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/sciennce-economics-experts-carbon-tax-needed-not-carbon-trading .
“Stop air pollution deaths”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-air-pollution-deaths .
“Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .
"Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
“Yarra Valley Climate Action Group”: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/Home .
STOP LYING & CENSORSHIP
“ABC censorship”: https://sites.google.com/site/abccensorship/abc-censorship .
“ABC fact-checking unit & incorrect reportage by the ABC (Australia’s BBC)”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/abc-fact-checking-unit .
“Boycott Murdoch media”: https://sites.google.com/site/boycottmurdochmedia/ .
“Censorship by ABC Late Night Live”: https://sites.google.com/site/censorshipbyabclatenightlive/ .
"Censorship by ABC Saturday Extra": https://sites.google.com/site/censorshipbyabclatenightlive/censorship-by-abc-sat .
“Censorship by the ABC”: https://sites.google.com/site/censorshipbytheabc/ .
“Censorship by Crikey (Australia)”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/censorship-by-crikey .
“Censorship by SBS (Australia)”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/censorship-by-sbs-australia .
“Censorship by The Age”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/censorship-by-the-age .
“Censorship by the BBC”: https://sites.google.com/site/censorshipbythebbc/ .
“Censorship by The Conversation”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/censorship-by .
"Censorship by The Guardian Australia": https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/home/censorship-by-the-guardian-a .
"Censorship by The Guardian UK": https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/censorship-by-the-guardian-uk .
“Educational apartheid”: https://sites.google.com/site/educationalapartheid/ .
“Experts: US did 9/11”: https://sites.google.com/site/expertsusdid911/ .
“Expose holocaust denial & ignoring”: https://sites.google.com/site/exposeholocaustdenialignoring/Home .
“Exposing Australia”: https://sites.google.com/site/exposingaustralia/home .
“Free university education” : https://sites.google.com/site/freeuniversityeducation/home
“Lying by omission”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammedialying/lying-by-omission .
“Mainstream media censorship”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/home .
“Mainstream media lying”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammedialying/ .
“Questions Q&A won’t ask”: https://sites.google.com/site/questionsqawontask/home .
“Subversion of Australia”: https://sites.google.com/site/subversionofaustralia/home .
END WAR AND GENOCIDE
“Aboriginal Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/aboriginalgenocide/ .
“Afghan Holocaust, Afghan Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/afghanholocaustafghangenocide/ .
“Iraqi Holocaust, Iraqi Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/iraqiholocaustiraqigenocide/ .
“Afghanistan Genocide essays”: https://sites.google.com/site/afghanistangenocideessays/ .
“Art for peace, planet, mother & child”: https://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ .
“Bengali Holocaust (WW2 Bengal Famine) writings of Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/bengali-holocaust .
“Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home .
“Gideon Polya writing”: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ .
“Iraq Genocide essays”: https://sites.google.com/site/iraqgenocideessays/ .
“Muslim Holocaust Muslim Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/muslimholocaustmuslimgenocide/ .
“Poetry reviews by Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/poetryreviewsbygideonpolya/ .
“Report genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/reportgenocide/ .
"State crime and non-state terrorism": https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/ .
“Stop state terrorism”: https://sites.google.com/site/stopstateterrorism/ .
FREE PALESTINE
Apartheid Israeli state terrorism: (A) individuals exposing Apartheid Israeli state terrorism, and (B) countries subject to Apartheid Israeli state terrorism”: https://sites.google.com/site/palestiniangenocide/apartheid-israeli-state-terrorism .
“Boycott Apartheid Israel”: https://sites.google.com/site/boycottapartheidisrael/.
“Gaza Concentration Camp”: https://sites.google.com/site/palestiniangenocide/gaza-concentration .
“Jews Against Racist Zionism”: https://sites.google.com/site/jewsagainstracistzionism/ .
“Non-Jews Against Racist Zionism”: https://sites.google.com/site/nonjewsagainstracistzionism/ .
“One-state solution, unitary state, bi-national state for a democratic, equal rights, post-apartheid Palestine: https://sites.google.com/site/boycottapartheidisrael/one-state-solution .
“Palestinian Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/palestiniangenocide/ .
“Palestinian Genocide essays”: https://sites.google.com/site/palestinegenocideessays/ .
"Zionist quotes re racism and Palestinian Genocide": https://sites.google.com/site/palestiniangenocide/zionist-quotes .