300.org

300.org - return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2

300.org exists to inform people about the Climate Emergency and the need to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration to a safe and sustainable level of about 300 ppm.  It has a lengthy numerically- and alphabetically-organized compendium of numerous expert scientist and other science-informed opinions that atmospheric CO2 concentration must be reduced from the current dangerous and damaging 400 ppm CO2 to a safe and sustainable level of less than 350 ppm CO2 (which rounds down to 300 ppm CO2) and ideally circa 300 ppm CO2 (scroll down to "Numerous expert opinions advocating a return of the atmosphere to about 300 ppm CO2 ASAP").

The fundamental position of 300.org is that  “There must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration  to about 300 parts per million”. 

300.org urges the World to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) to about 300 parts per million by volume (ppmv or ppm for short). In urging a target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300 ppm, 300.org is informed by the advice of top world climate scientists as set out in carefully researched and  documented presentations on this site (see Sitemap).

Basically we know what the problem is (man-made GHG pollution) and how to solve it. Fundamentally, as enunciated by 300.org, we need to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration to about 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [3].

To achieve 300 ppm CO2 and a safe planet for all peoples and all species we must achieve the following:

1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.

2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.

3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.

We understand the problem and have the technological solutions (“Climate crisis facts and required actions”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-crisis-facts-required-actions )  – the impending catastrophe simply does not have to happen. Are we going to be able to overcome the current political stasis and act before it is too late for Humanity and the Biosphere? Is it too late? Are we all doomed? (see “Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed ) .

One notes that there  are 1 billion Catholics in the world and that in relation to climate change Pope Francis in his 2015  Encyclical  Letter "Laudato si" demands that in order to save “millions of premature deaths” a “fully borne” Carbon Price be emplaced on greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and that “there is an urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced”.  Armed with this science-informed and authoritative  moral advice, the billions of Humanity must save themselves and the Biosphere by demanding that fossil fuel burning must rapidly cease and  the polluters must pay in full by a Wealth Tax (for historical GHG pollution) and a Carbon Tax (for ongoing GHG pollution) (see Pope Francis, Encyclical Letter “Laudato si”, 2015: http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html and  Gideon Polya, “Pope Francis Demands “Fully Borne” Cost of Pollution (Carbon Price) To Prevent “Millions Of Premature Deaths”,  Countercurrents, 29 July, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya290715.htm ).

Zero emissions is not enough – having achieved zero emissions we must reduce atmospheric CO2 back tho the pre-Industrial Revolution level of circa 300 ppm CO2 (indeed some experts suggest 260 ppm CO2 or 280 ppm CO2; see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm) .

The draw-down from the current circa 400 ppm CO2 to circa 300 ppm CO2 can be achieved through generation of biochar (through anerobic pyrolysis of cellulosic agricultural  and forestry waste over the next century; see Gideon Polya, “Forest biomass-derived Biochar can profitably reduce global warming and bushfire risk”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/forest-biomass-derived-biochar-can-profitably-reduce-global-warming-and-bushfire-risk .) and through Accelerated Weathering of Limestone (AWL, generation of bicarbonate through passing CO2 through calcium carbonate suspended in sea water; see Ken Caldeira and Greg H. Rau, “Accelerating carbonate dissolution to sequester carbon dioxide in the ocean: geochemical implications”, Geophysical Research Letters, 27 (2), 225-226 (2000): http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL002364/abstract ; Greg H. Rau, Ken Caldeira, Kevin G. Knauss, Bill Downs and Hamid Sarv, “Enhanced carbonate dissolution as a means of capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide”, First National Conference on Carbon Sequestration, Washington DC, May 14-17, 2000: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/p24.pdf ;  and  G.H. Rau, “CO2 mitigation via capture and chemical conversion in seawater”,  Environ Sci Technol 45:1088–1092, 2011: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es102671x  ) .

However these CO2 draw-down processes are expensive and from the perspective of young people (who will have to pay the mounting Carbon Debt) it is better to keep the fossil fuels in the ground  . The essential argument is as follows (from Gideon Polya “Expert Witness Testimony to stop Gas-Fired Power Plant Installation”, Countercurrents,  14 June, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140613.htm ):

(a). The current price of Australian thermal coal is about $90 per tonne or $90 per t C x (12t C/ 44 t CO2) = $24 per tonne of CO2 released on eventual combustion.

(b). However top climate scientists and biologists say that the atmospheric  CO2 concentration must be rapidly returned from the present circa 400 ppm CO2 to about 300 ppm CO2 for a safe planet for all peoples and all species.

(c). Currently, apart from re-afforestation a major way of returning atmospheric CO2 back to 300 ppm CO2 is through producing biochar (carbon, charcoal,  C) through anaerobic pyrolysis of cellulosic  biomass waste in renewable energy-driven microwave furnaces at 400-700C (with existing  agricultural  and forestry waste this could achieve about 9 Gt per year, roughly the same as the annual industrial output).

(d). The cost of conversion of cellulosic waste to biochar in the US mid-West is about US$49-US$74 per tonne CO2 (US$210-US$303 per tonne CO2 in the UK ).  

(e). Ergo, for every $1 received for coal by the coal industry our children, grandchildren and further generations will have to spend $2 to $3 at present prices converting the consequent CO2 back to biochar to save the Planet. One can accordingly similarly determine (for Australia) that the biochar production-related debt for future generations for every $1 received by the gas-based electricity industry will be about $0.6-$1.0 at present prices (these estimates must be multiplied by 4 for the cost of biochar production in the UK).

One must also consider the overall Carbon Debt to be paid by future generations (we are already paying for some of it through sea walls and flood and drought mitigation works). Thus climate economist  Dr Chris Hope (from 100-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge University ( has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price of $150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf  ) . The essential arguments are as follows:

(a) There is 700- 750 GtC in atmosphere (mostly as CO2 and  half due to historical fossil fuel combustion). To get the CO2 back to the pre-Industrial Revolution 300 ppm CO2 we must draw down about 700/2 = 350 Gt CO2. Thus will come at the cost of  350 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150/t CO2) = $193 trillion.

(b) The latest upper estimate for annual global GHG pollution is 63.8 Gt CO2-e (see  Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ) and accordingly the Carbon Debt is increasing at 63.8 Gt CO2-e x $150 /t CO2-e = $9.6 trillion per year.

(c)  You can calculate  your country’s Historical Carbon Debt and the annual increase in its Carbon Debt. Thus for climate criminal Australia (a world GHG polluter with an  annual per capital Domestic plus Exported greenhouse  gas pollution )  of about 2,000 Mt CO2-e annual pollution /24 million people = 83 t CO2-e per person per year as compared to Bangladesh’s 0.9 (see “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ ) , its Historical  Carbon Debt is 5.6 Gt  C (see “Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ ) that corresponds to  5.6 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150/t CO2) = $3.1 trillion and this is increasing each year at 2 Gt C x  (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150/t CO2 = $1,100 billion (Domestioc plus Exported Carbon Debt) or  0.6 Gt C x  (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150/t CO2 = $330 billion per year. If we assume that it is only the  9.4 million Australians  under 30 who will have to pay this Carbon Debt then their annual Carbon Debt is increasing at present at about $330,000 million/9.4 million = $35,106 per person i.e. about  $35,000 per person. This represents massive Climate Injustice and Intergenerational Inequity (see “Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice  and “Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime ) .

Will we achieve the required 300 ppm CO2? It doesn't appear so at present and the reasons are encapsulated in Polya's 3 Laws of Economics. Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help  expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and  horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide . Polya’s Second Law of Economics explains why we are doomed by neoliberal economics  – deceit, lying by omission, lying by commission, and disinformation subvert rational risk management  but are remorselessly increasing (see Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest  And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents, 17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm ).

Some useful compendia about climate change information, requisite actions & expert opinions:

 

“1% ON 1%: one percent annual wealth tax on One Percenters”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/1-on-1 .

 “2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .

300.org: . https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .

“300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .

“Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .

"Climate Revolution Now": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .

“Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/ .

“100% renewable energy by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ .

“Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

“Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .

 “Biofuel Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .

“Divest from fossil fuels”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/divest-from-fossil-fuels .

“Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .

“Science & economics experts: Carbon Tax needed NOT Carbon Trading”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/sciennce-economics-experts-carbon-tax-needed-not-carbon-trading/ .

“Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .

“Stop air pollution deaths”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-air-pollution-deaths

“Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .

“Methane Bomb Threat”: https://sites.google.com/site/methanebombthreat/ .

“Nuclear weapons ban , end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban

"Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .

“Stop state terrorism” : https://sites.google.com/site/stopstateterrorism/  [state and corporate complicity in worsening climate genocide and 7 million annual air pollution deaths from carbon fuel burning].

"State crime and non-state terrorism": https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/  [state and corporate complicity in worsening climate genocide and 7 million annual air pollution deaths from carbon fuel burning].

“Climate terrorism: 400,000 climate change-related deaths globally annually versus an average of 4 US deaths from political terrorism annually since 9-11”: https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/climate-terrorism .

“Carbon terrorism: 3 million US air pollution deaths versus 53 US political terrorism deaths since 9-11 (2001-2015)”: https://sites.google.com/site/statecrimeandnonstateterrorism/carbon-terrorism .

 


Some key analyses by Dr Gideon Polya (Melbourne scientist):

 

Gideon Polya, “Expert Witness Testimony To Stop Gas-Fired Power Plant Installation”, Countercurrents,  14 June, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140613.htm .

Gideon Polya,  " Doha climate change inaction. Only 5 years left to act", MWC News, 9 December 2012: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/23373-gideonpolya-climate-change.html .

Gideon Polya, “Australia 's Huge Coal, Gas & Iron Ore Exports Threaten Planet”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150512.htm .

Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm

Gideon Polya , “2015 A-to-Z  Alphabetical List Of Actions And Advocacies For Climate Change Activists”,  Countercurrents,  14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm

Gideon Polya, “100 Ideas For Climate Change Activists Trying To Save The Biosphere And Humanity”,  Countercurrents, 10 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya100813.htm .

Gideon Polya, “Biochemical  Targets Of Plant Bioactive Compounds”: moral & utilitarian reasons to stop ecocide, speciescide, omnicide & terracide”, Countercurrents, 22 February, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya220215.htm .

Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest  And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents, 17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm . Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help  expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and  horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide.

“Climate change articles by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-articles .

“Climate change websites created by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-websites .

“Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home .

 “Gideon Polya Writing”: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ .

Gideon Polya, “Revised Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution For All Countries – What Is Your Country Doing?”, Countercurrents, 6 January, 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya060116.htm

Gideon Polya, “Exposing And Thence Punishing Worst Polluter Nations Via Weighted Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution Scores”, Countercurrents, 19 March, 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya190316.htm .

Open Letter to Australian Federal MPs: young betrayed & climate revolution now: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/2015-9-6 .

“Free university education”: https://sites.google.com/site/freeuniversityeducation/ .

Carbon Debt:

Carbon Debt reflects the inescapable future cost in today's dollars of fixing the remorselessly increasing climate damage. Carbon Debt  is the historical contribution of countries  to the carbon pollution of the atmosphere and can be variously expressed as Gt CO2-e (gigatonnes or billions of tonnes of CO2-equivalent) or in dollar terms by applying a Carbon Price. Thus leading climate economist Dr Chris Hope from 90-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge  University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price in US dollars of $150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf  ).

The World added 350 Gt C (1285 Gt CO2) to the atmosphere in 1751-2006 (see James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansen”, 2008: http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf ) and currently adds a further 64 Gt CO2-e annually (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang, “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ).

The World  has a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of     350 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150 per tonne CO2-e = $193 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of (64 Gt CO2-e /year) x  ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years  = $76.8 trillion or a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $270 trillion (about 3 times the annual world GDP of $85 trillion)  that is increasing by about 64 Gt CO2-e/year  x ($150 /t CO2-e)  = $9.6 trillion/year or about $10 trillion each year.

By way of a national example, Australia is a world-leading annual per capita  GHG polluter with a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 5.9 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2-e/Gt C) x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $3.2 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of  2 Gt CO2-e/year  x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years  = $2.4 trillion i.e. a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $5.6 trillion (A$7.2 trillion) that is increasing at 2 Gt CO2-e /year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $300 billion (A$385 billion) per year. Thus Australia (population 24 million) with 0.34% of the world's population has 2.1% of the world's Carbon Debt. The Australian Carbon Debt will have to be paid by the young and future generations and for under-30 year old Australians is increasing at about $30,000 (A$38,500) per person per year, noting that the annual Australian per capita income is about $65,000 (A$83,000) (see Gideon Polya, “2015 A-to-Z  alphabetical list of actions and advocacies for climate change activists”,  Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm ).


 In summary, 300.org urges the World to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) to about 300 parts per million by volume (ppmv or ppm for short). In urging a target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300 ppm, 300.org is informed by the advice of top world climate scientists as set out in carefully researched and  documented presentations on this site (see Sitemap and the above list for numerous, carefully-researched,  carefully-documented,   dedicated websites relating to "300 ppm CO2 ASAP" and serious action on man-made climate change).

 

Numerous expert opinions advocating a return of the atmosphere to about 300 ppm CO2 ASAP:

Inspired by the position of Dr Hansen (head, NASA GISS) that “CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm”  J. Hansen et al, “Target atmospheric CO2 – where should humanity aim?” : http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126 ) the world-wide 350.org organization has the excellent position of urging a return of the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 350 ppm or less and indeed is organizing an extremely  important world-wide day of action on 24 October 2009 to publicize this position (  350.org: http://www.350.org/mission  ).  

 The Australian National Climate Action Summit in Canberra (January 2009) involved over 140 community action groups and endorsed a key aim for stabilisation at 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and strong international agreement in line with what science and global justice demands (Greenlivingpedia, “Australian climate Action Summit 2009”: http://www.greenlivingpedia.org/Australian_climate_action_summit_2009 ).

 The name 300.org reflects support for the implicit 350.org goal of less than 350 ppm CO2 (although, as detailed below,  a goal of "350 ppm" is clearly inadequate according to top climate scientists) and the goal of about 300 ppm CO2 of the 2009 Australian Climate Action Summit ( Greenlivingpedia, “Australian climate Action Summit 2009”: http://www.greenlivingpedia.org/Australian_climate_action_summit_2009 ), the Australian Climate Emergency Network ( Climate Emergency Network:  http://www.climateemergencynetwork.org/ ),  and the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group ( Yarra Valley Climate Action Group:  http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/Home ).

Of course rapid achievement of 350 ppm CO2 and thence 300 ppm CO2 will require rapid  cessation of greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and one notes that there are 1 billion Catholics and in relation to climate change Pope Francis in his 2015  Encyclical  Letter "Laudato si" demands that in order to save “millions of premature deaths” a “fully borne” Carbon Price be emplaced on greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and that “there is an urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced”. Armed with this science-informed and authoritative  moral advice, the billions of Humanity must save themselves and the Biosphere by demanding that fossil fuel burning must rapidly cease and  the polluters must pay in full by a Wealth Tax (for historical GHG pollution) and a Carbon Tax (for ongoing GHG pollution)(see Pope Francis, Encyclical Letter “Laudato si”, 2015: http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html and  Gideon Polya, “Pope Francis Demands “Fully Borne” Cost of Pollution (Carbon Price) To Prevent “Millions Of Premature Deaths”,  Countercurrents, 29 July, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya290715.htm ).

Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency facts and requisite actions. Below is a numerically- and  alphabetically-organized series of quotations from leading climate scientists and biological scientists supporting the need for an atmospheric CO2 concentration in the range 300-350 ppm  i.e. after “rounding down” and applying the “precautionary principle” of the lower safe limit, an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 300 ppm (the upper limit for the last 600,000 years except for the last half century or so).

 

10 CORAL SCIENTISTS. 10 coral scientist  co-authors to key coral bleaching paper, namely J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers (2009): “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO2 levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030–2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts" ( J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, (10), October 2009, 1428-1436: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6N-4X9NKG7-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1072337698&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=6858c5ff7172f9355068393496a5b35d ).

Dr John E.N. Veron (was the chief scientist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; authored numerous books on coral; leading coral expert).

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Professor and  inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, and the holder of a Queensland Smart State Premier fellowship;  a leading expert on climate change and coral reefs). 

Professor  Tim M. Lenton (Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter;  worked at the University of East Anglia; awarded the Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; expert on atmosphere and ocean nutrients; worked with Dr James Lovelock on the Gaia model).

Dr  Janice M.  Lough (Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; co-editor of “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” edited by Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Janice M. Lough; coral, climatology,  paleoclimatology )

Dr  Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (The University of Melbourne & Australian Institute of Marine Science).

Dr  David O. Obura (Coastal Oceans Research and Development – Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa;  co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David O. Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean.Their Ecology and Conservation”; coral expert).

Dr  Paul  Pearce-Kelly (Zoological Society of London, London;  entomology, limnology, zoology ).

Dr  Charles R.C. Sheppard (coral expert, Principal Research Fellow, ‎Department of Life Sciences, University of Warwick and Coral Reef Conservation Project Wildlife Conservation Society, and  co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David O. Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean. Their Ecology and Conservation”).

Dr  Mark  Spalding (Senior Marine Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Visiting Fellow, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Zoology, 90-Nobel-Laureate University of Cambridge, UK; coral expert).

Dr Mary G. Stafford-Smith (Department of Marine Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; coral expert). 

 

18 CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND CLIMATE ECONOMISTS. 18 climate scientist  co-authors to a key paper by Dr James Hansen and colleagues stating that “The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming” (James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos, “Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and Nature”, PLOS One, 8 (12), 3 December 2013: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648 ).

1. Pushker Kharecha (Ph.D. in geosciences and astrobiology from Penn State University research scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies  and Center for Climate Systems Research at 104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University,  expert on the global carbon cycle and proponent of nuclear energy to save lives from GHG pollution) ; 

2. Makiko Sato (Ph.D, Physics, Yeshiva University, New York,  NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,   104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University, and climate scientist ); 

3. Valerie Masson-Delmotte (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA; Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE),   Fontenay-aux-Roses, France; leading climatologist and paleoclimatologist);

4 Frank Ackerman (PhD, Harvard; senior economist at Synapse Energy Economics, a public interest-oriented consulting firm in Cambridge, MA; formerly at Stockholm Environment Institute, Tufts University's Global Development and Environment Institute, Tellus Institute, Massachusetts; University of Massachusetts; author of “Can We Afford the Future? Economics for a Warming World” and other books; leading environmental economist);

5. David J. Beerling ( FRS; Sorby Professor of Natural Sciences in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences at the University of Sheffield, UK; leading expert in the areas of plant evolution, paleobiology, geobiology and biogeochemistry) ;

6. Paul J. Hearty (PhD U of Colorado Boulder;  University of North Carolina, Wilmington; expert in the areas of  Biogeography, Geochemistry, Geology) ;   

7. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (leading coral scientist, professor and inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland and  holder of a Queensland Smart State Premier fellowship) ; 

8. James Hansen (leading US climate scientist; NASA and Columbia University).

9. Shi-Ling Hsu (Larson Professor Florida State University College of Law; formerly a professor at the University of British Columbia School of Law; author of “The Case For A Carbon Tax”; expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, climate change, law and economics, and property) ;

10. Camille Parmesan (Ph.D. in Biological Sciences from the University of Texas at Austin; Professor in the Marine Institute at Plymouth University (UK) where she holds the National Aquarium Chair in the Public Understanding of Oceans and Human Health) ; 

11. Johan Rockstrom (executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and teaches natural resource management at Stockholm University) ;

12. Eelco J. Rohling (a Professor of Ocean and Climate Change in Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, UK);

13. Jeffrey Sachs (a leading American economist,  director of the Earth Institute at 104-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University and famous for work on economic development and poverty);

14. Pete Smith (professor, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences,  School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK; leading expert in modelling greenhouse gas / carbon mitigation, bio-energy for fossil fuel offsets, and biological carbon sequestration) ; 

15. Konrad Steffen (glaciologist and the former director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder; director of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); 

16. Lise Van Susteren (an American psychiatrist in private practice in Washington, DC and environmental activist);

17. Karina von Schuckmann (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography; ocean heat content, sea level, Earth's energy balance) ;

18. James C. Zachos (Earth and Planetary Science Department, University of California Santa Cruz; expert on biological, chemical, and climatic evolution of late Cretaceous and Cenozoic oceans).

 

 

 

18 CLIMATE SCIENTISTS & CLIMATE ECONOMISTS. Dr James Hansen, and Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos (2013): "Earth’s energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the state of Earth’s climate. It informs us about the global temperature change “in the pipeline” without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth’s energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human-made climate forcings, including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth’s surface albedo.

If Earth’s mean energy imbalance today is +0.5 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced from the current level of 395 ppm (global-mean annual-mean in mid-2013) to about 360 ppm to increase Earth’s heat radiation to space by 0.5 W/m2 and restore energy balance. If Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore energy balance [64], [75].

The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming. That target is consistent with an earlier analysis [54]. Additional support for that target is provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and paleoclimate, in later parts of our paper. Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than <350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes of forcings including other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise assessments will become available during the time that it takes to turn around CO2 growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target." (James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos, “Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and Nature”, PLOS One, 8 (12), 3 December 2013: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648 ).

 

35 CORAL SCIENTISTS. 35 signatories to the Statement of the Coral Reef Crisis Working Group Meeting, The Royal Society (6 July 2009):  “Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse habitats of the oceans and provide essential ecosystem goods and services to hundreds of millions of people. Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing widespread mortality on the Great Barrier Reef and many other reefs of the world started when atmospheric CO2 exceeded 320ppm. At today’s level of approximately 387ppm CO2, reefs are seriously declining and time-lagged effects will result in their continued demise with parallel impacts on other marine and coastal ecosystems. Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will not prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs from the combined effects of global warming and ocean acidification. To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs the atmospheric CO2 level must be reduced significantly below 350ppm. In addition to major reductions in CO2 emissions, achieving this safe level will require the active removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.  Given the above, ecosystem-based management of other direct human induced stresses on coral reefs, such as overfishing, destructive fishing, coastal pollution and sedimentation, will be essential for the survival of coral reefs on which so many people depend” [28]. 

1. Sir David Attenborough (Working Group Co-chair; famous for preparing  and presenting BBC nature programs).

2. Ralph Armond (Director General, Zoological Society of London).

3. Dr Richard Aronsen (President, International Society for Reef Studies). 

4. Professor Barry Brook (University of Adelaide).

5. Professor Ken Caldeira (Carnegie Institution for Science).

6. Dr Ann Clarke (The Frozen Ark Project). 

7. Professor James Crabbe (University of Bedfordshire). 

8. Professor Andreas Fischlin (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH ). 

9. Wendy Foden (IUCN Species Program). 

10. Dr James Hansen (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies). 

11. Dr Simon Harding (Globe International and ZSL). 

12. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland). 

13. Rachel Jones (Zoological Society of London).

14. Professor Tim Lenton (formerly University of East Anglia; Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter;   awarded the Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; expert on atmosphere and ocean nutrients; worked with Dr James Lovelock on the Gaia model). 

15. Dr James Lovelock FRS (Green College, Oxford).

16. Professor Gordon MacGregor Reid (President, World Association of Zoos and Aquariums). 

17. Aylin McNamara (Zoological Society of London).  

18. Professor Justin Marshall (President, Australian Coral Reef Society).

19. Dr David Obura (IUCN Coral Specialist Group and Coastal Oceans Research and Development – Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa;  co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean.Their Ecology and Conservation”; coral expert).

20. Paul Pearce-Kelly (Zoological Society of London and IUCN Invertebrate Conservation Group; ;  entomology, limnology, zoology). 

21. Dr Dirk Petersen (SECORER and Rotterdamm Zoological Society).

22. Dr Peter Reid (Massey University).

23. Dr Chris Reid (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science/Marine Institute).

24. Professor Callum Roberts (University of York).

25. Dr Alex Rogers (International Program on the State of the Ocean).

26. Professor Yvonne Sadovy (IUCN SSC Marine Conservation Sub-Committee). 

27. Professor Charles Sheppard (Principal Research Fellow, ‎Department of Life Sciences, University of Warwick and Coral Reef Conservation Project Wildlife Conservation Society; co-editor of Tim R. McClanahan, Charles R. C. Sheppard, and David O. Obura, editors, “Coral Reefs of the Indian Ocean. Their Ecology and Conservation”; coral expert).

28. Dr Mark Spalding (Senior Marine Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Visiting Fellow, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Zoology, 90-Nobel-Laureate University of Cambridge, UK; coral expert).

29. Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Department of Marine Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; coral expert).  

30. Dr Simon Stuart (IUCN Species Survival Commission). 

31. Jon Taylor (World Wildlife Fund).

32. Dr Kristian Teleki (International Coral Reef Action Network).

33. Dr John Turner (Bangor University).

34. Dr Makoto Tsuchiya (The Japanese Coral Reef Society).

35. Professor John E.N, Vernon (Coral Reef Research; was the chief scientist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; authored numerous books on coral; leading coral expert).

 

41 AUSTRALIAN SCIENTISTS. 41 Australian scientist  co-signatories to an important statement prepared by Dr Barrie Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat), and Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University) that stated: "Reduction of CO2 levels to 300-350 ppm may be required to have a reasonable probability of restoring a safe climate” ( 350.org, “40 Australian scientists sign on to 350 target, call for urgency oin the fight against climate change”, 22 October 2008: http://www.350.org/en/about/blogs/40-australian-scientists-sign-350-target-call-urgency-fight-against-climate-change ). 

1. Dr Marco Amati, Lecturer, Program Director, Environmental Planning, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;

2. Professor Gunther Andersson, Senior Lecturer in Physics/Chemical Physics/Nanotechnology;

3. Professor Snow Barlow, Horticulture and Viticulture, Associate Dean (Strategic Relationships), Melbourne School of Land and Environment. University of Melbourne;

4. Professor John Beardall, Head of School of Biological Sciences, Monash University;

5. Professor Barry Brook, chair of climate change, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Adelaide;

6. Professor Stephen Boyden, Emeritus, Fenner School of the Environment and Society, Australian National University;

7. Professor Nick Costa, Head, School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University;

8. Professor Christopher Dickman, School of Biological Science, University of Sydney;

9. Professor Jim Falk, Director, Australian Centre for Science, Innovation and Society (ACSIS), University of Melbourne;

10. Professor Peter Cawood, director, School of Earth and Geographical Science, University of Western Australia;

11. Professor Larry Frakes, Emeritus, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;

12. Dr Paul Fraser, Chief Research Scientist, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research;

13. Professor Stephen Garnett, Director, School of Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University;

14. Dr Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleoclimate research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow, Australian National University;

79. Professor Victor Gostin, Emeritus, School of Earth Science, University of Adelaide;

15. Dr Warwick Grace, Consulting Meteorologist, former Head of the Bureau of Meteorology Special Services, Adelaide;

16. Dr Galen Halverson, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;

17. Professor Rob Harcourt, Director of Marine Science, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;

18. Professor Lesley Head, Head of School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong;

19. Dr Andrew Holmes, Senior Lecturer, Molecular Microbial Ecology, School of Molecular and Microbial Biosciences, The University of Sydney;

20. Dr Michael Laws, Charles Darwin University, Theme Leader Wildlife and Landscape Sciences;

21. Professor Jonathan Majer, Head of Department of Invertebrate Conservation, Department of Environmental Biology, Curtin University of Technology;

22. Professor Jennifer A. Marshall Graves, Head, Comparative Genomics Research Group, Research School of Biological Sciences Australian National University;

23. Professor David McKirdy, Emeritus Professor, visiting research fellow, Geology and Geophysics, University of Adelaide;

24. Professor Paul Memmoth, Director Aboriginal Environments Research Centre, University of Queensland;

25. Dr Luciana Moller, Marine Mammal Research Group, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;

26. Dr E. Charles Morris, Senior Lecturer and group leader, School of Natural Sciences, Hawkesbury Campus, University of Western Sydney;

27. Professor John Morrison, BHP Professor of Environmental Science, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Wollongong;

28. Professor Colin Murray Wallace, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Wollongong;

29. Professor Gerald C. Nanson, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong;

30. Dr Bradley Opdyke, lecturer, Quaternary sedimentologist, Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University;

31. Dr Enzo Palombo, Department of Chemistry, Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Swinburne University;

32. Dr Barrie Pittock PSM, former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead Author, and author of “Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat”;

33. Professor Graeme Robertson, Director Muresk Institute, Curtin University of Technology;

34. Professor Patricia Ryan, Emeritus Professor, College of Science and Technology, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;

35. Professor Tom Rich, curator of vertebrate paleontology, Museum Victoria;

36. Professor Peter Schwerdtfeger, Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, Flinders University Airborne Research Centre;

37. Dr Vladimir Strezov, Senior Lecturer, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University NSW;

38. Professor Ros Taplin, Director, Environmental Management Program, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University;

39. Dr John Tibby, Senior lecturer, Geographical and environmental Studies, University of Adelaide;

40. Professor Patricia Vickers-Rich, Director, Monash Science Centre, Chair of Paleontology, School of Geosciences, Monash University;

41. Professor Clive Warren, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland.

 

AHMED. Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed ( bestselling author, award-winning investigative journalist, and noted international security scholar, as well as a policy expert, film maker, strategy and communications consultant, change activist, and author of  Zero Point, and A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save Itwhich inspired the award-winning documentary feature film, “The Crisis of Civilization”) (2015) : “The much-vaunted COP21 negotiations in Paris are, despite the claims of world leaders, dead on arrival. Emissions reductions targets are not up for discussion. Those pledges are already on the table, having been put forward voluntarily by each country. Government negotiators in Paris are instead looking at banal details of how and when countries should commit to improving their voluntary pledges, and ensuring "transparency" and "accountability". Catastrophe? But current emissions pledges already guarantee disaster…But the more scientists learn, the more they realise we keep underestimating the risks. Last year, an analysis in Scientific American by Professor Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University explained that new research showed the two degree danger zone could be breached at our present rate of emissions within just 20 years. This means limiting global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to around 405 parts per million (ppm). Even this, Mann explained, is based on “a conservative definition of climate sensitivity that considers only the so-called fast feedbacks in the climate system, such as changes in clouds, water vapor and melting sea ice. Some climate scientists, including James E. Hansen, former head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, say we must also consider slower feedbacks such as changes in the continental ice sheets”. That implies that a safe level of atmospheric CO2 is actually less than 350 ppm (Nafeez Ahmed, “Paris Climate Negotiations Won’t Stop The Planet Burning”, Countercurrents, 7 December, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/ahmed071215.htm ).

 

ALLEY. Dr Richard Alley (a glaciologist at Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA,  on the reported slow-motion collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet) (2014): “Very crudely, we are now committed to global sea level rise equivalent to a permanent [2012] Hurricane Sandy storm surge… The possibility that we have already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits centuries before arriving”  (Dr Richard Alley quoted in Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing ).

[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related  carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].

 

BROOK. Professor Barry Brook (Sir Hubert Wilkins chair of climate change and director of climate science at the University of Adelaide's Environment Institute ) (2009): “If the planet is like an oven, it's still possible to turn down the temperature. The number is 300 and the methods will be extraordinary. In 2007, a climate awareness campaign was launched by well-known environmental author Bill McKibben. It was coined 350.org, with the slogan "350 is the most important number on the planet". The figure refers to a target concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, in parts per million (ppm). This number was drawn from a recent study by a team of climate scientists, led by NASA's Dr James Hansen ... But there is another, more surprising, problem with 350. It's the wrong number. While 350 ppm should give us a reasonable shot at avoiding more than two degrees of warming, that's hardly a safe future to be aiming for. We need only to look at the impacts at less than one degree to know we're already committed to some tough adaptation problems … A target of 300 to 325 ppm CO2 - the levels of the 1950s - is necessary if we wish to cut additional warming and start to roll back the already damaging impacts. As such, 350 is not a target, it's a signpost to a goal. So we're aiming at 350 but the real goal is 300 and we're already at 385” (Professor Barry Brook, “Six degrees of separation”, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 March 2009: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/earth-hour/six-degrees--of-separation-for-the-planet-20090324-984c.html  ; Professor Barry Brook, “BraveNewClimate.com: http://bravenewclimate.com/ ).

 

CARTER. Dr. Peter Carter (a retired physician and environmental health research analyst from Canada) on the importance of the Bolivian climate change position [1C increase maximum; reduce CO2 to 300 ppm CO2 from the current damaging  400 ppm CO2]: “Why the Bolivian government 1ºC climate change position is the only position for the survival of the Global South and for the food security of the entire world… The Bolivian climate change position:

  • The global average temperature increase of the surface of planet Earth must be limited to 1°C.
  • Therefore, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration must be limited (which means reduced) to 300 parts per million (ppm).
  • Industrialized nations must stop emitting carbon. This means a total redevelopment to convert to clean, perpetual and zero carbon energy for all people. What a wonderful idea!
  • The industrialized nations must extract “billions of tons” of carbon dioxide directly from the air. The fact is that climate change science has totally established that only zero carbon emissions, supplemented by the extraction of carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, can lead to the reduction of today’s catastrophically high level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (390 ppm) and stop it from increasing further. This is the best kept secret of the industrialized nations, because it is a scientific fact that has been known for many years yet ignored.

The most important numbers in the world are 1°C and 0 carbon emissions. Without zero carbon emissions, no other numbers can happen, except higher and higher numbers, leading inevitably to climate catastrophe” ( Peter Carter, “Why the Bolivian government 1ºC climate change position is the only position for the survival of the Global South and for the food security of the entire world”, Wrong Kind of Green: http://wrongkindofgreen.org/tag/300-ppm/ ).

 

COSTANZA. Professor Robert Costanza , a leading ecological economist and Professor of Public Policy at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University, in a paper with numerous other top scholars in the  top scientifc journal Nature saying  that atmospheric CO2 must not exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

 

COURTICE. Ben Courtice ( member of Australia’s Socialist Alliance on the World People’s Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth, Cochabamba, Bolivia) (2010): “The conference calls for the world to adopt a target of maximum 1 degree warming, and therefore to aim for 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. To this end the conference called for rich nations to adopt targets of 50% emissions reductions (based on 1990 emissions) by 2017. These are demands being taken to the next international conference in Cancun. These are also the most radical demands being pushed by any of the climate movement in the West, such as the Climate Emergency Network here in Australia” (Ben Courtice, “Pachamam, bien vivir, and the Climate Debt”, Climate & Capitalism, 5 May 2010: http://climateandcapitalism.com/2010/05/06/pachamama-bien-vivir-and-the-climate-debt/ ).

 

CRUTZEN. Professor Paul Crutzen (a Dutch, Nobel Prize-winning, atmospheric chemist) in a paper with numerous other top scholars in the  top scientifc journal Nature saying  that atmospheric CO2 must not exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

CSIRO. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia's premier scientific research organization (2009) : “Since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentrations have risen 37%, methane 150% and nitrous oxide 18%. The global increases in CO2 concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while the increases in methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. The CO2 concentration in 2008 of 383 parts per million (ppm) is much higher than the natural range of 172 to 300 ppm that existed over the last 800,000 years” (CSIRO,  “The Science of Climate Change”, 2008:  http://www.csiro.au/files/files/poqu.pdf ).

 

FANKHAUSER. Dr Samuel Fankhauser  (economist and climate change specialist at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics; member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, a government watchdog that monitors UK climate change policy; former Deputy Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); served on the 1995, 2001 and 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) (2009), was reported by IPS thus: “A future global climate change treaty must limit the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million (ppm), and not 450 ppm, the currently proposed level, Samuel Fankhauser told a meeting of pro-environment legislators from the eight most industrialised countries and emerging economies here. But they felt the goal was not feasible. A British economist and researcher on climate change, Fankhauser said the limit he is urging is the only way to avoid the irreversible bleaching of coral in coastal areas, with all that this implies for people's livelihoods and the environment”. Dr Fankhauser was directly quoted thus : “"Action against climate change might cost up to three percent of the world's GDP during the next 40 years," Fankhauser told IPS. "But this price is still cheaper than doing nothing about it…The global climate change sector is already booming. Revenues generated by measures against climate change have surpassed 500 billion dollars in 2008, and could be worth some two trillion dollars by 2020…[500 million people] live within 100 kilometres of reef ecosystems, and benefit from these services…Another important service provided by coral reefs and healthy seashore ecosystems is climate regulation and coastal protection, through carbon sequestration, waste treatment, and protection against hurricanes and the like” ( Julio Godoy, “Climate change target too ambitious, say lawmakers”, IPS, 26 October 2009: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49010 ).

 

GLIKSON.  Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) (2009): “For some time now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980) are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) … The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as 500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere, which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres. There is little evidence for an extinction at 3 Ma. However, by crossing above a CO2 level of 400 ppm the atmosphere is moving into uncharted territory. At this stage, enhanced methane leaks threaten climate events, such as the massive methane release and fauna extinction of 55 million years ago, which was marked by rise of CO2 to near-1000 ppm” (Dr Andrew Glikson, “The Methane Time Bomb and the Triple Melt-down", Countercurrents, 2009  : http://www.countercurrents.org/glikson101008.htm ).

Andrew Glikson (Australian Earth and Paleoclimate scientist) on looming climate catastrophe, climate genocide and “existential calamity for civilization and nature”(2016): “Little mention is made of the existential threats posed by the climate and nuclear issues in the context of the current elections in the US and Australia. According to the world’s climate research institutions and the bulk of the peer reviewed scientific literature, the Earth has now entered a critical stage at which amplifying feedback effects to global warming transcend points of no return. Manifestations of a shift in state of the climate include; current rise in CO2 at 3.3 parts per million per year, the fastest recorded for the last 65 million years; extreme rises in Arctic temperatures; a plethora of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods and fires; demise of habitats such as the Great Barrier Reef where corals die due to high water temperatures and coral bleaching; and other developments. The extreme rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since the onset of the industrial age, and the corresponding rise in mean global temperatures as a direct result of the rise in carbon gases, pose an existential risk to the future of nature and civilization. The consequences of further burning of the vast carbon reserves buried in sediments and in permafrost and bogs can only result in a mass extinction of species  which rivals that of the five great mass extinctions in Earth history… It follows that, where and when the majority of authoritative scientific institutions (NASA, NOAA, NSIDC, Hadley-Met, Tyndale, Potsdam, CSIRO, World Academy of Science, IPCC and so on), based on the bulk of the evidence, indicate beyond reasonable doubt that open-ended emissions of greenhouse gases inevitably lead to a major shift in the terrestrial climate, and thereby the demise of humans and of species, a toleration and/or condoning of continuing emissions by governments contravenes at the very least the spirit of international laws… 1. Since the mid-1980s an abrupt rise in the temperature levels of the atmosphere, driven by an increase in concentration of greenhouse gases arising from release of >600billion ton of carbon (GtC) to the atmosphere is leading to an extreme shift in state of the atmosphere-ocean system, such has no precedence in the recorded geological history, with the exception of events which resulted in the mass extinction of species, including massive volcanism, extra-terrestrial impacts and large-scale release of methane. 2. As a direct consequence of the above, as well as reduction of the transient protection by industrial sulphur dioxide since mid-1980s, mean global temperatures have risen since about 1970 by more than 0.6o Currently, had it not been for the aerosols, mean global temperature would have been higher by an additional near to 1oC. 3. Allowing for the masking effect of sulphur aerosols, the total rise in temperature since the onset of the industrial age ~1750 is reaching levels similar to those of the Pliocene period (~2.6 – 5.3 million years ago). The shift is occurring at the fastest rate recorded by paleoclimate studies. Whereas many species can adapt to gradual environmental changes, the current temperature rise rate resulting from ~2-3 parts per million (ppm) CO2/year may not be sustained. 4. The current change is manifested by an increase in the rate of melting of the major ice sheets, accelerating sea level rise and a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, reflecting elevated energy level of the atmosphere-ocean system. 5.The consequences of continuing carbon emissions and consequent rise of mean global temperatures would render large parts of the Earth’s land surfaces uninhabitable due to temperature rise, droughts, storms and flooding of coastal, deltas and lower river regions by sea level rise – estimated as about 25+/-12 meters under Pliocene conditions, constituting an existential calamity for civilization and nature. 6. Excepting injection of transient short residence-time sulphur aerosols, the arrest of current climate trend would require (A) a meaningful reduction in current rate of carbon emission(~9 GtC/year) and (B) development of new methodologies for draw-down of atmospheric CO2, by at least 50 ppm, requiring research efforts on a global scale” (Andrew Glikson, “The climate Titanic and the melting icebergs”, Countercurrents, 30 June 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/2016/06/30/the-climate-titanic-and-the-melting-icebergs/ ).

Dr Andrew Glikson (earth scientist and paleoclimatologist, ANU) (2016): “The Paris agreement, being non-binding, is in danger of not being fulfilled by many of the signatories… [need action to] transition from carbon-emitting technologies to alternative clean energy as fast as possible, and focus technology on draw-down (sequestration) of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere” (Dr Andrew Glikson quoted in James Whitmore, “Letter signed  by 154 Australian experts demands climate policy match the science”, Guardian Australia, 25 August 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/25/letter-signed-by-154-australian-experts-demands-climate-policy-match-the-science ).

 

GOREAU. Dr T. Goreau (Jamaica delegation climate change expert making a scientific and technical briefing to the Association of Small Island States, UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, December 7-18, 2009, President of the Global Coral Reef Alliance, an international NGO for restoration of coral reefs, and a member of the Jamaican delegation to UNCCC;  previously Senior Scientific Affairs Officer at the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for Development, in charge of Global Climate Change and Biodiversity issues, where he contributed to the original draft of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ) (2009): “Summary. The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today’s levels, and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C higher. These estimates are based on real, long term climate records, not on models. We have not yet felt the real impacts of the current excess of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuels, and the data shows that they will in the long run be many times higher than IPCC models project. In order to prevent these long term changes, CO2 must be stabilized at levels below preindustrial levels, around 260 parts per million. CO2 build up must be reversed,  not allowed to increase or even to be stabilized at 350 ppm, which would amount to a death sentence for coral reefs, small island developing states,  and billions of people living along low lying coast lines. The good news is that all tools for reversing global warming and reducing CO2 to safe levels are ready, proven, and cost effective, but are not being seriously used due to lack of polices and funding...

Current “targets” for CO2 being discussed by UNCCC are way too high to prevent the extinction of coral reefs (which can take no further warming, since most corals have died in the last 20 years from heat shock) and the disappearance of all low lying islands and coastlines where billions of people live. Even a target of 350 ppm is UNACCEPTABLE if we are to avoid dangerous interference with the Earth climate system, causing inconceivable ecological, environmental, and economic disaster. Global warming must not be allowed to continue as would happen by stabilizing CO2 and temperature at present levels. Greenhouse gas buildup MUST BE REVERSED, and CO2 reduced to levels of around 260 ppm, below Pre-Industrial levels. The technologies to do so are proven, cost effective, and capable of being rapidly ramped up, but are not being used on the scale needed due to lack of serious policies and funding to reverse global warming and stabilize the climate system at safe levels. THAT IS WHAT AOSIS AND UNCCC MUST ACCOMPLISH IF WE ARE TO PRESERVE OUR PLANETʼS LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS. The solutions are already in hand. Letʼs all get serious and stop stealing our childrenʼs future!” ( Dr T. Goreau, “What is the right target for CO2? 350 ppm is a death sentence for coral reefs and low lying islands, the safe level  for SIDS [Small Island Developing States] is around 260 parts per million [ppm]”, scientific and technical briefing to the Association of Small Island States, UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, December 7-18, 2009: http://www.globalcoral.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/01/aosis_briefing_2009.pdf  ).

 

HANSEN. Dr James Hansen  (top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; member of the prestigious  US National Academy of Sciences; 2007 Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the prestigious American Association for the Advancement of Science; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New York, USA) ([links to Dr James Hansen and GISS : http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen ; for 1880-present NASA GISS Global Temperature graphed data see: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ ).

(a) Dr James Hansen  with 8 UK, French and US climate change scientist co-authors (2008):  “Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2 [carbon dioxide; atmospheric CO2 280 ppm pre-industrial], including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm [parts per million], a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects” ( James Hansen et al, “Target atmospheric CO2 – where should humanity aim?” : http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126 ).

(b) Dr James Hansen   in relation to the recent book Climate Code Red. The case for emergency action” by David Spratt and Philip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008): “A compelling case … we face a climate emergency” (Climate Code Red: http://www.climatecodered.net/ ).

(c)  Dr James Hansen  , Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954): “Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the "albedo flip" property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that "flips" the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment” ( James Hansen, Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, (2007): Climate change and trace gases. Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Hansen_etal_2.html ).

(d) Dr James Hansen  , in an address to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional Committee: “CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term  consequences of business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature” (Dr James Hansen, to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional Committee: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf ).

(e) Dr James Hansen et al. (2008): “Stabilization of Arctic sea ice cover requires, to first approximation, restoration of planetary energy balance. Climate models driven by known forcings yield a present planetary energy imbalance of +0.5-1 W/m2. Observed heat increase in the upper 700 m of the ocean confirms the planetary energy imbalance, but observations of the entire ocean are needed for quantification. CO2 amount must be reduced to 325-355 ppm to increase outgoing flux 0.5-1 W/m2, if other forcings are unchanged. A further imbalance reduction, and thus CO2 ~300-325 ppm, may be needed to restore sea ice to its area of 25 years ago” ([19]. Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231:  http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_etal.html  (abstract) and http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_etal.pdf ).

(f) Dr James Hansen in statement by the World's top climate scientists including Professors James Hansen (US), Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Germany) , Paul Crutzen (Netherlands Nobel Laureate), in the  top scientifc journal Nature that atmospheric CO2 must NOT exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

(g). Dr James Hansen, and Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos (2013): "Earth’s energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the state of Earth’s climate. It informs us about the global temperature change “in the pipeline” without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth’s energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human-made climate forcings, including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth’s surface albedo.

If Earth’s mean energy imbalance today is +0.5 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced from the current level of 395 ppm (global-mean annual-mean in mid-2013) to about 360 ppm to increase Earth’s heat radiation to space by 0.5 W/m2 and restore energy balance. If Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore energy balance [64], [75].

The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2 target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global warming. That target is consistent with an earlier analysis [54]. Additional support for that target is provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and paleoclimate, in later parts of our paper. Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than <350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes of forcings including other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise assessments will become available during the time that it takes to turn around CO2 growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target." (James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos, “Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and Nature”, PLOS One, 8 (12), 3 December 2013: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648 ).

 

 

HOEGH-GULDBERG. Professor Ove  Hoegh-Guldberg (leading coral scientist)  with J.E.N. Veron, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers (all top coral scientists) (2009) “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, October 2009: “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae” ( J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, (10), October 2009, 1428-1436: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6N-4X9NKG7-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1072337698&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=6858c5ff7172f9355068393496a5b35d ).

 

JOHNSTON. Julie Johnston (sustainability adult education consultant in BC, Canada for Only Zero Carbon): “Only RCP2.6 scenario [peak emissions 2020; zero emissions 2070; thence negative emissions: http://www.onlyzerocarbon.org/uploads/RCP_2_6_dark_green.png ] ...  It is scientifically impossible for today's catastrophic atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (400 ppm) to fall ​unless our industrial carbon emissions stop, and we must get below 350 ppm to prevent planetary catastrophe” ( Julie Johnston, “The Burning Age is over”, Only Zero Carbon: http://www.onlyzerocarbon.org/ ).

 

JOUGHIN. Dr Ian Joughin (a glaciologist at the University of Washington (UW), Seattle, Washinton, USA, and lead author of a key paper on the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse, of which the early-stage collapse is already underway) (2014): “Abstract. Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years” ( Ian Joughin, Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, “Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin West Antarctica”, Science 16 May 2014,  Vol. 344 no. 6185 pp. 735-738: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6185/735.abstract ).

[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related  carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].

 

LEVICKI. Richard Levicki (climate activist associated with Global Compliance Research Project) with Dr Joan Russow (2009): “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold” …16 November 2009: “Overview. The time for  procrastination about climate change has long since passed; the world is in a  state of emergency and further inaction is gross negligence. The actual and anticipated impacts of climate change as well as the unintended consequences of climate change, and the short-term and long-term effects that are known and yet to be known have all contributed to the state of emergency. Any denial of the state of emergency is eclipsed by the moral imperative, and legal imperative. to abide by the precautionary principle… As stated in the precautionary principle in the United Nations Framework on Climate Change [UNFCCC], the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing methods to address the threat… Because of the global urgency, there must be the political will to strive to contain the rise in temperature to  less than 1oC above the pre-industrial levels and strict time frames must be imposed , so that overall global emissions will begin to  be reversed as of 2010. There must be a global target of 30% below 1990 by 2015, 50% below by 2020, 75% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and 100% below by 2050, while adhering t the precautionary principle, the differentiated responsibility principle, and the fair and just transition principle. Under the Framework Convention, every state signatory incurred the responsibility to conserve carbon sinks; thus the destruction of sinks, including deforestation and the elimination of bogs must end. Most scientific work today has become tied to the failing negotiations and is based in keeping the risk of a rise  in temperature above 2oC at about 5-40%. The proposal submitted here by the Global Compliance Research Project is based on trying to avoid a temperature above 1oC and returning atmosphere CO2 back to 278 ppm in line with the obligations outlined in the UNFCCC [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] by 2050 and bringing risk down to a minimum. If the dangerous level is to be avoided, emissions pathways to eliminate CO2 must arrive at the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm at least by 2050. [Currently under consideration as a target. To succeed in being below the dangerous 1oC, member states of the United Nations must commit to remove between 1105 GT CO2 and 1842 GT CO2 from the atmosphere (Table 1) …]. (Joan Russow and Richard Levicki, Global Compliance Research, “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold”, (16 November 2009): http://76.12.226.248/ccc/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/climate-change-statement-November-26-2009.pdf ).

LOUGH. Janice M. Lough ( Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; co-editor of “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” edited by Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Janice M. Lough; coral, climatology,  paleoclimatology ) and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (2009): “By 1979 (when the first observations of mass coral bleaching were recorded) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 337 ppm”  ( p1, Janice M. Lough and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, “Introduction: Coral Bleaching- Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” in Madeleine J. H. van Oppen and  Janice M. Lough “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences”, Ecological Studies 205, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heuidleberg,2009:    https://books.google.com.au/books?id=zktkzgnZnB8C&pg=PA1&lpg=PA1&dq=%22J.M.+Lough,++%22&source=bl&ots=nI4xz4N4lu&sig=u9SZpo-dwSfu4Fym2Tun_oaGaNY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwje-ZLU-rvKAhWJHpQKHdY2DjwQ6AEIPTAF#v=onepage&q=%22J.M.%20Lough%2C%20%20%22&f=false  ).

 

MCKIBBEN. Bill McKibben (American journalist and founder of  350.org that espouses 24 October, UN Day, as also 350 Day for international action of global warming) (23 October 2009): “Physics and chemistry have already announced their bottom line. In the last two years a slew of research has shown that the most carbon we can safely have in the atmosphere is 350 parts per million - indeed, a NASA team said that above that figure we can’t have “a planet similar to the one on which civilization developed or to which life on earth is adapted.’’ We’re already well past the 350 figure, at 390 parts per million, which is why Arctic sea ice is melting, glaciers thawing, and the ocean turning steadily more acidic. To meet the 350 goal will mean a far more aggressive approach than the one Obama and Congress have so far taken (the bill making its way through Congress explicitly aims for a world with 450 parts per million carbon)” (Bill McKibben, “Mr. Obama, be tough on climate change”, The Boston Globe, 23 October 2009: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/10/23/mr_obama_be_tough_on_climate_change/  ).

 

MORNINGSTAR. Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) with Dr Joan Russow (Global Compliance Research Project) (2010): "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global 350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group, and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the 350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm" (Joan Russow  and Cory Morningstar, "Climate change: a global imperative to return to 300 ppm", Canadians For Action on Climate Change", 9 April 2010: http://canadianclimateaction.wordpress.com/writings-2009-2010/climate-change-a-global-imperative-to-return-to-300-ppm/ ).

 

MORRIGAN. Tariel Mórrígan (Principal Research Associate, Global Climate Change, Human Security and Democracy, Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA) (2010 ): “ Limiting the atmospheric CO2 concentration to no greater than  350 ppm might prevent committed global warming to no more than 2.4oC in the long term, after the temporary delay by climate and ocean thermal inertia reach their peak potenttial climate forcing (i.e. warming) , Stabilization at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq provides a 93% probability of staying  below 2oC above pre-industrial values (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006). Therefore a CO2 target as low as 300 ppm may be necessary to stabilize to prevent a dangerous warming of 2oC. Global average temperatures  may stabilize within a likely range of 0.6-1.4oC above pre-industrial values at or below 350 ppm CO2-eq (300 ppm CO2) (IPCC, 2007c ; Meinshausen, 2006)” (Tariel Mórrígan, “Target atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Why humanity should aim for 350 ppm CO2-e”: http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/papers/pdf/Morrigan_2010_Target%20Atmospheric%20GHG%20Concentrations.pdf ).

 

NASHEED. Mohammed Nasheed  (president of the Maldive Islands) and the Maldive Islands  government at an underwater Cabinet meeting (Cabinet Resolution, October 2009):  “With less than one degree of global warming, the glaciers are melting, the ice sheets collapsing, and low-lying areas are in danger of being swamped. We must unite in a global effort to halt further temperature rises, by slashing carbon dioxide emissions to a safe level of 350 parts per million.’’ [33].

 

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINSITRATION (NOAA). US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (10 May 2013):On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements made by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching this level during the past week… Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended… The increase in the Northern Hemisphere is always a little ahead of the Southern Hemisphere because most of the emissions driving the CO2 increase take place in the north. Once emitted, CO2 added to the atmosphere and oceans remains for thousands of years. Thus, climate changes forced by CO2 depend primarily on cumulative emissions, making it progressively more and more difficult to avoid further substantial climate change”  (NOAA, “CO2 at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm”, 10 May 2103: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/news/7074.html ).

 

ONLY ZERO CARBON. Only Zero Carbon:  “This is a website venture to make the imperative of aiming to get the global emission of carbon dioxide to zero, general knowledge and at the very least on the table of the UN negotiations for a new climate treaty… The science is definite that only by stopping adding carbon to the atmosphere, can the increase in the global temperature and ocean acidification stop. The IPCC has stated the fact clearly in the 2007 climate change assessment.
Only zero carbon makes all the carbon dioxide science, the mitigation measures, the economics and politics so simple. All you really have to know is that only zero CO2 emissions is the only CO2 target there is. If we do not aim for a zero carbon world we will have no world. We hear of low carbon but how low is low to escape global climate catastrophe? We hardly ever hear of no carbon, and zero carbon emissions is not on the climate change mitigation agenda. The 2C target is certain global climate planetary catastrophe. ​​IC [editor: circa 300 ppm CO2] is the danger limit and we can achieve the 1C limit, but only with emergency drastic action starting now.” (Only Zero Carbon: http://www.onlyzerocarbon.org/about.html ). 

 

OXFAM AUSTRALIA. Oxfam Australia (2011): “Current scientific understanding of the climate system indicates that global temperature rise must be limited to as far below 1.5°C as possible (relative to pre-industrial times) and greenhouse gases stabilised at less than 350  ppm CO2 (or 400ppm CO2-equivalents) in order to avoid more extreme impacts and minimise risks of passing tipping points. Global emissions of greenhouse gases must therefore be cut by at least 42% below 1990 levels by 2020 and reach net-zero by 2050… Applying a rights-based approach, Oxfam Australia calls for immediate action and cooperation at global, regional and local levels, in order to keep global temperature rise as far below 1.5° Celsius as possible (above pre-industrial levels) in order to minimise the impacts of climate change on the lives and livelihoods of poor people around the world. As part of this developing countries and their poor must be supported in their moving to a low carbon economy ” (Oxfam Australia, “Policy of the board - climate change, development and social justice ”, 2011:  https://www.oxfam.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/oaus-positionpolicies-0312.pdf  .

 

PACHAURI. Dr Rajendra Pachauri ( U.N.'s top climate scientist, heading  the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC, and with the IPCC a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate ) (August 2009) : "But as a human being I am fully supportive of that goal [below 350 ppm CO2]. What is happening, and what is likely to happen, convinces me ... [of] moving toward a 350 target" (Bill McKibben, 350.org, "Pachauri's call for 350ppm is breakthrough moment for climate movement", UK Guardian, 26 August 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/26/pachauri-350ppm-breakthrough-climate ) . 

 

PEARMAN. Dr Graeme Pearman (former CSIRO Climate director; GP Consulting; interim director, MSI; Monash University Sustainaibility Group, Melbourne),  “The Earth is deglaciating. Since 1979, more than 20% of the Polar Ice Cap has melted away …  Over the last century: global temperatures risen by 0.74 +/- 0.18oC; 11 of last 12 years rank as amongst the 12 warmest years; snow cover decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer; summer period extended 12.3 days … Arctic sea-ice decline of 2.7 +/- 0.6 per cent per decade; sea ;levels have risen at a rate of: 1961-2003 1.9 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1, 1900-2000 1.7 +/- 0.5 mm yr-1; ocean acidification 0.1 pH unit so far … Gases: current carbon dioxide and methane concentrations far exceed those of the last 600,000 years; increases primarily die to fossil fuel use, agriculture and land-use changes; Warming: unequivocal, evident in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising sea levels; warming an effect of human activities – at least 5 times greater than that due to solar output change … extreme temperatures – more frequent, intense, longer-lived heat waves … Recent science strongly reinforces the views that: global warming is occurring; it is primarily a result of human activities" (Dr Graeme Pearman, “Climate change: the evidence, science and current projections”, (2007) (see: http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/126569/graeme-pearman-monash-university-namoi-climate-change-forums.pdf  ).

 

POLYA. Dr Gideon Polya (Australian biochemist, Convenor, 300.org, that argues for a return to ~300 ppm CO2) (24 October 2009):  (a)  "Dear Sir/Madam,

24 October UN Day & 350 Day - Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm.

Top climate scientists and the prestigious UK Royal Society say we must DECREASE atmospheric CO2 concentration from the present 390 ppm to 300-350 ppm ASAP for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [1a, 2a].

Unfortunately, world governments and the pro-coal Australian Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and the pro-coal Australian Labor Federal Government (aka the Lib-Labs) want to INCREASE CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. [3a].

Australia is a world leader in per capita GHG pollution – having 0.3% of world population, its domestic and exported GHG pollution is 3% of world total. Yet optimistic interpretation of official Labor policy indicates that Australia’s domestic and exported GHG pollution will be 119% of the 2000 value by 2020 and 173% by 2050. [4a].

The science-ignoring Australian Lib-Labs (US Rep-Dems) are betraying our children, the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere of the Planet. Children should demand that their elders behave responsibly before it is too late and First World-imposed climate genocide destroys 10 billion non-Europeans this century, mostly children.". [5a, 6a].

Yours sincerely, Dr Gideon Polya, Convenor 300.org (see: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ).

[1a]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html .

[2a]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm” [Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair)]: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf .

[3a]. Gideon Polya, “G8 failure means climate genocide for Developing World”, Countercurrents, 11 July 2009: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110709.htm .

[4a]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group, “Climate justice and climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”, 2009: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .

[5a]. Gideon Polya, “School war crimes tribunals. Can children save the world’s children?”, MWC News, 8 October 2009: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/33643/42/ . [35].

[6a]. Dr Gideon Polya, “Message from Gideon Polya for 350 Day. 24 October UN Day & 350 Day- Science says reduce CO2 to ~ 300 ppm”, coalition for a Safe Climate, safeclimate.org:  http://www.safeclimate.org.au/node/188

(b) Dr Gideon Polya on why corrupt neoliberal capitalism makes a return to 300 ppm CO2 problematical (2015): "Polya's 3 Laws of Economics mirror the 3 Laws of Therrnodynamics of science and are (1) Price minus COP (Cost of Production) equals profit; (2) Deception about COP strives to a maximum; and (3) No work, price or profit on a dead planet. These fundamental laws help  expose the failure of neoliberal capitalism in relation to wealth inequality, massive tax evasion by multinational corporations, and  horrendous avoidable deaths from poverty and pollution culminating in general ecocide, speciescide, climate genocide, omnicide and terracide (see Gideon Polya. “Polya's 3 Laws Of Economics Expose Deadly, Dishonest  And Terminal Neoliberal Capitalism”, Countercurrents, 17 October, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya171015.htm ).

 

RIGNOT. Dr Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and  lead author of a 2014 landmark scientific paper on West Antarctica revealing that the collapse of a large part of Antarctica is now unstoppable  (2014): “Controlling climate warming may ultimately make a difference not only about how fast West Antarctic ice will melt to sea, but also whether other parts of Antarctica will take their turn. Several "candidates" are lined up, and we seem to have figured a way to push them out of equilibrium even before warming of air temperature is strong enough to melt snow and ice at the surface. Unabated climate warming of several degrees over the next century is likely to speed up the collapse of West Antarctica, but it could also trigger irreversible retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctica. Whether we should do something about it is simply a matter of common sense. And the time to act is now; Antarctica is not waiting for us” (Eric Rignot, “Global warming: it’s a point of no return in West Antarctica. What happens next?”, The Observer, 18 May 2014: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/climate-change-antarctica-glaciers-melting-global-warming-nasa ; see also Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing ; E. Rignot, J. Mouginot, M. Morlighem, H. Seroussi and B. Scheuchl, “Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith and Kohler glacier, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011”, Geophysical Research Letters, 2014: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060140/abstract ; Ian Joughin, Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, “Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin West Antarctica”, Science 16 May 2014,  Vol. 344 no. 6185 pp. 735-738: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6185/735.abstract ; Dr Richard Alley quoted in Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing ).

[Editor’s note: Core samples indicate that seawater has filled the West Antarctic basins within the past 750,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related  carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].

 

ROCKSTROM. . Dr Johan Rockström (executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and teaches natural resource management at Stockholm University) in a paper with numerous other top scholars in the  top scientifc journal Nature saying  that atmospheric CO2 must not exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

 

ROYAL SOCIETY. Royal Society technical working group on coral (6th July 2009): "The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently. The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to 2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) [and 20 other eminent scientists]" (Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm”: http://static.zsl.org/files/statement-of-the-coral-reef-crisis-working-group-890.pdf  ).

The Royal Society, the Zoological Society of London and the International Programme on the State of the Ocean Coral Reef Crisis Meeting (2009): “On the 6th  July, 2009, the Royal Society, the Zoological Society of London and the International Programme on the State of the Ocean facilitated a Coral Reef Crisis meeting to identify key thresholds of atmospheric carbon dioxide needed for coral reefs to remain viable.… To ensure the longterm viability of coral reefs the atmospheric CO2 level must be reduced significantly below 350 parts per million (ppm). In addition to major reductions in CO2 emissions, achieving this safe level will require the active removal of CO2 from the atmosphere” (The “Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of <350ppm”, Output of the Coral Reef Crisis Working Group Meeting,  The Royal Society, London, 6th  July 2009: http://www.aquarium-portedoree.fr/sites/aquarium-portedoree.fr/files/veron_blanchissement.pdf ).

 

RUSSOW. Dr Joan Russow (Global Compliance Research Project) and Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) (2010): (a) "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global 350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group, and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the 350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm" (Joan Russow  and Cory Morningstar, "Climate change: a global imperative to return to 300 ppm", Canadians For Action on Climate Change", 9 April 2010: http://canadianclimateaction.wordpress.com/writings-2009-2010/climate-change-a-global-imperative-to-return-to-300-ppm/ ).

(b) Dr Joan Russow with Richard Levicki (climate activist associated with Global Compliance Research Project) (2009): “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold” …16 November 2009: “Overview. The time for  procrastination about climate change has long since passed; the world is in a  state of emergency and further inaction is gross negligence. The actual and anticipated impacts of climate change as well as the unintended consequences of climate change, and the short-term and long-term effects that are known and yet to be known have all contributed to the state of emergency. Any denial of the state of emergency is eclipsed by the moral imperative, and legal imperative. to abide by the precautionary principle… As stated in the precautionary principle in the United Nations Framework on Climate Change [UNFCCC], the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing methods to address the threat… Because of the global urgency, there must be the political will to strive to contain the rise in temperature to  less than 1oC above the pre-industrial levels and strict time frames must be imposed , so that overall global emissions will begin to  be reversed as of 2010. There must be a global target of 30% below 1990 by 2015, 50% below by 2020, 75% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and 100% below by 2050, while adhering t the precautionary principle, the differentiated responsibility principle, and the fair and just transition principle. Under the Framework Convention, every state signatory incurred the responsibility to conserve carbon sinks; thus the destruction of sinks, including deforestation and the elimination of bogs must end. Most scientific work today has become tied to the failing negotiations and is based in keeping the risk of a rise  in temperature above 2oC at about 5-40%. The proposal submitted here by the Global Compliance Research Project is based on trying to avoid a temperature above 1oC and returning atmosphere CO2 back to 278 ppm in line with the obligations outlined in the UNFCCC [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] by 2050 and bringing risk down to a minimum. If the dangerous level is to be avoided, emissions pathways to eliminate CO2 must arrive at the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm at least by 2050. [Currently under consideration as a target. To succeed in being below the dangerous 1oC, member states of the United Nations must commit to remove between 1105 GT CO2 and 1842 GT CO2 from the atmosphere (Table 1) …] (Joan Russow and Richard Levicki, Global Compliance Research, “Submission to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change: Time to be bold”, (16 November 2009): http://76.12.226.248/ccc/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/climate-change-statement-November-26-2009.pdf ).

 

SAKASHITA. Miyoko Sakashita and Shaye Wolf (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California) (2009): “Given the documented detrimental impacts to corals at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~387 ppm CO2, the best-available science indicates that atmospheric CO2 concentrations must be reduced to at most 350 ppm, and perhaps much lower (300-325 ppm CO2), to adequately reduce the synergistic threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and other impacts (Veron et al. 2009; Donner 2009; Hansen et al. 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; McMullen and Jabbour 2009). Clearly, immediate action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that do not jeopardize the petitioned coral species… Conclusion. As demonstrated in this Petition, each of the 83 petitioned coral species faces threats to its continued existence. NMFS must promptly make a positive 90-day finding on this Petition, initiate a status review, and expeditiously proceed toward listing and protecting these species. We look forward to the official response as required by the ESA” ( Miyoko Sakashita and  Shaye Wolf  (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California), “Before the Secretary of Commerce. Petition to list 83 coral species under the Endangered Species Act”, ”, 20 October 2009: http://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pr/species/petitions/83_corals_petition_2009.pdf ).

 

SCHELLNHUBER. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research., Germany  (2008): “"It is a compromise between ambition and feasibility. A rise of 2oC could avoid some of the big environmental disasters, but it is still only a compromise…It is a very sweeping argument, but nobody can say for sure that 330ppm is safe. Perhaps it will not matter whether we have 270ppm or 320ppm, but operating well outside the [historic] realm of carbon dioxide concentrations is risky as long as we have not fully understood the relevant feedback mechanisms" [280 ppm is the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration] (Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber quoted by David Adam, “Roll back time t safeguard climate, expert warns”, Guardian, 15 September 2008 : http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/15/climatechange.carbonemissions ).

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber in a paper with numerous other top scholars in the  top scientifc journal Nature saying  that atmospheric CO2 must not exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

 

SPRATT. David Spratt (leading Australian climate change analyst and activist on the website called “Climate Code Red”, the title of a key book by David Spratt and Phillip Sutton) (2009): “The central point is that Arctic sea-ice is undergoing dramatic loss in summer, having lost 70-80% of its volume in the last 50 years, most since 2000. Without summer sea-ice, Greenland cannot escape a trajectory of ice-sheet loss leading to an eventual sea-level rise of 7 metres. Regional temperatures in the Arctic autumn are already up about 5C, and by mid-century an Arctic ice-free in summer, combined with more global warming, will be pushing Siberia close to the point where large-scale loss of carbon from melting permafrost would make further mitigation efforts futile. As Hansen told the US Congress in testimony last year, the “elements of a perfect storm, a global cataclysm, are assembled”. In short, if you don’t have a target that aims to cool the planet sufficiently to get the sea-ice back, the climate system may spiral out of control, past many “tipping points” to the final “point of no return”. And that target is not 350ppm, it’s around 300 ppm. Hansen says Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point decades ago, and in his presentations has also specifically identified 300-325ppm as the target range for sea-ice" (David Spratt, “350 is the wrong target: put the science first”, Climate Code Red website, 22 January 2009: http://www.climatecodered.org/2009_01_01_archive.html ).

 

STEFFEN. Professor Will Steffen (an American chemist,  executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute and a member of the Australian Climate Commission until its abolition by the climate change sceptic Australian Coalition Government  in September 2013) in a paper with numerous other top scholars in the  top scientific journal Nature saying  that atmospheric CO2 must not exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350 parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels. Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems. Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 “ (Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanity”, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html ).

 

STERN. Sir Nicholas Stern (top climate economist, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics, former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003) (September 2009): “[Re 350 ppm CO2] I think it’s  a very sensible long-term target…People have to be aware that is a truly long-term target. We have already passed 350ppm, we are at 390 ppm of CO2 and at 435 ppm of CO2-equivalents right now. It is most important to stop the increase of flows of emissions short term and then start the decline of flows of annual emissions and get them down to levels which will move concentrations of CO2 back down towards 350ppm.” (Simon Leufstedt, “Nicholas Stern endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target””, Green Blog, 12 September 2009: http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/12/nicholas-stern-endorses-350-ppm-as-a-very-sensible-long-term-target/ ).

 

SUMNER. Thomas Sumner in Science Now (AAAS) on the slow collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (2014): “A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier this week, two teams of scientists reported that the Thwaites Glacier, a keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed, which would release enough meltwater to raise sea levels by more than 3 meters. One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin. Because inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region, both research teams say its collapse would flood West Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in the area... Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet, a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet to collapse” (Thomas Sumner, “West Antarctic ice sheet is collapsing”, Science Now, 12 May 2014: http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapsing ).

[Editor’s note: The atmospheric CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm for the last 800,000 years but has increased since the start of the Industrial revolution and is now about 400 ppm and increasing at a record 2.5 ppm per year and energy-linked CO2 pollution is remorselessly increasing (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ; US EIA, “Energy-related  carbon dioxide emissions”, Table A10: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm ; US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ].

 

SUTTON. Phillip Sutton (co-author with David Spratt of “Climate Code Red” and Manager and Strategist of Research and Strategist for Transition Initiation (RSTI) ) (2015): “We stand at a crossroads. The old climate goals are dangerously deficient. What should we be going for instead? Humanity has made a mistake in creating climate conditions beyond the safe zone of the Holocene epoch (i.e. the relatively stable climate of the last 10,000 years). We need to fully correct that mistake, rather than just curtailing its magnitude. Our climate and earth system goals need to be designed to restore optimal conditions – to approximately those of the pre-fossil fuel era. Key climate/earth system parameters that need to be restored to safe levels are:

• ocean heat content

• global surface temperature

• ocean acidity

• sea level.

To prevent massive disruption to coastal areas, the global average surface temperatures and the ocean temperatures need to be lowered to maintain a stable sea level at the height experienced over the last two thousand years. This implies that the average global temperature needs to be reduced to well below the present level – perhaps reversing as much as the full warming experienced in the last 100 years. To restore the ocean acidity to safe levels, the atmospheric CO2 level needs to be cut substantially. To deal with both global warming and ocean acidity issues, it is possible that the atmospheric CO2 level needs to be restored to somewhere between 280 ppm and 300 ppm. To prevent severe climate and ocean acidification impacts expected by 2030, net global greenhouse gas emissions should reach zero and temperatures start to fall before then” (page 2, Phillip Sutton, “Striking Targets. Matching climate goals with climate reality”, Breakthrough (National Centre for Climate Restoration), Melbourne, 2015: http://media.wix.com/ugd/148cb0_2cec8c5928864748809e26a2b028d08c.pdf ).

 

TARGET 300. “Target 300” (that advocates a return to 300 ppm CO2 ASAP): “James Hansen, is the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Professor at the Columbia University Earth Institute. He is one of the worlds leading climate scientists. Hansen has recently released a paper titled "Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?" In this paper he concludes that we need to return atmospheric concentrations to between 300-325 ppm CO2 to re-establish summer sea ice in the North Pole. The North Pole summer sea ice is just one of a number of critical climate systems that are needed to maintain a stable safe climate. Without it, other systems, including the Greenland ice mass and the frozen methane trapped in Arctic permafrost, will respond to global warming and add greatly to the problem by creating destructive sea level rise and massive release of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We don't know exactly where safe CO2 levels lie within the 300-325 ppm CO2 range so if we wish to avoid a climate catastrophe, we must aim for 300 ppm CO2 or below. Hansen has said we have at most decades to return our atmospheric greenhouse gas levels to safe levels” (. Target 300: http://target300.org/1introduction.html ).

 

VAN OPPEN. Dr Madeleine J. H. van Oppen (The University of Melbourne & Australian Institute of Marine Science) with Janice M. Lough and (2009): “By 1979 (when the first observations of mass coral bleaching were recorded) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 337 ppm”  (( p1, Janice M. Lough and Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, “Introduction: Coral Bleaching- Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences” in Madeleine J. H. van Oppen and  Janice M. Lough “Coral Bleaching: Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences”, Ecological Studies 205, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heuidleberg,2009:    https://books.google.com.au/books?id=zktkzgnZnB8C&pg=PA1&lpg=PA1&dq=%22J.M.+Lough,++%22&source=bl&ots=nI4xz4N4lu&sig=u9SZpo-dwSfu4Fym2Tun_oaGaNY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwje-ZLU-rvKAhWJHpQKHdY2DjwQ6AEIPTAF#v=onepage&q=%22J.M.%20Lough%2C%20%20%22&f=false  ).

 


VERON, John E.N. "Charlie". Dr J.E.N. "Charlie" Veron: 320-350 ppm CO2 for coral reef safety Professor John E.N. “Charlie” Veron is a world authority on coral (he has discovered and described about 1/3 of coral species), He is an  marine researcher, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science and author with Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (also of Coral Reef Research) of “Corals of the World. Reef building corals worldwide” (see:
http://www.nhbs.com/corals_of_the_world_tefno_98887.html ).

(a) Professor  John E.N. "Charlie" Veron, “Is the Great Barrier Reef on Death Row?”, powerpoint lecture, joint event of the Royal Society with the  Zoological Society of London and introduced by Sir David Attenborough FRS, 6 July 2009: “450 ppm [CO2] will bring on the demise of the GBR [Great Barrier Reef] …320-350 [ppm CO2 needed]” and

“CO2 in Summary.

320 ppm: occasional [coral] bleaching

345 ppm: sporadic mass bleaching

387 ppm: inevitable long-term decline

450 ppm: rapid decline, reefs cease to be biodiverse

600 ppm: acidification affecting all biota

800 ppm: mid-Eocene extinction comnditions

1000 ppm: reefs only geological structures. Sixth Mass Extinction” ( Professor  John E.N. "Charlie" Veron, “Is the Great Barrier Reef on Death Row?”, joint event of the Royal Society with the  Zoological Society of London and introduced by Sir David Attenborough FRS, 06 July 2009, powerpoint lecture, 61 minutes: http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?id=3093# ; Coral Reef Crisis Meeting, 6th July 2009, with powerpoint lecture by Dr John "Charlie" Veron as introduced by Sir David Attenborough,  Coral Reef Research: http://www.coralreefresearch.org/html/crr_rs.htm ) .

(b) Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), co-signatory to the statement by the technical working group on coral, The Royal Society on 6th July 2009: "The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to <350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently. The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to 2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research) Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) ]and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair) (Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of <350ppm”: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf )

(c) Dr J.E.N. Veron, with O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers (top coral scientists) (2009) “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, October 2009: “Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae” ( J.E.N. Veron, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P. Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smith and A.D. Rogers, “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”, Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 58, (10), October 2009, 1428-1436: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6N-4X9NKG7-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1072337698&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=6858c5ff7172f9355068393496a5b35d ).

(d) Dr J.E.N. Veron addressing  the  Coral Reef Crisis Meeting of the Royal Society, the Zoological Society of London and the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (2009): “The safe level of atmospheric carbon dioxide for coral reefs is ~320 ppm [and] sets the safe limit for a healthy planet during a time of abrupt greenhouse-driven climate change” (David Spratt, ““Saving the Reef”; the triumph  of politics over science”, Climate Code Red, 30 May 2016: http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/05/saving-reef-triumph-of-politics-over.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimateCodeRed+%28climate+code+red%29  ).


 

WIKIPEDIA.  Wikipedia: “’Over the past 400,000 years, CO2 concentrations have shown several cycles of variation from about 180 parts per million during the deep glaciations of the Holocene and Pleistocene to 280 parts per million during the interglacial periods. Following the start of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased to 400 parts per million and continues to increase. This has caused the phenomenon of global warming which is mostly attributed to human CO2 emissions” (Wikipedia, “Carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere ).

 

WOLF. Shaye Wolf  and Miyoko Sakashita (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California) (2009): “Given the documented detrimental impacts to corals at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~387 ppm CO2, the best-available science indicates that atmospheric CO2 concentrations must be reduced to at most 350 ppm, and perhaps much lower (300-325 ppm CO2), to adequately reduce the synergistic threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and other impacts (Veron et al. 2009; Donner 2009; Hansen et al. 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; McMullen and Jabbour 2009). Clearly, immediate action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that do not jeopardize the petitioned coral species… Conclusion. As demonstrated in this Petition, each of the 83 petitioned coral species faces threats to its continued existence. NMFS must promptly make a positive 90-day finding on this Petition, initiate a status review, and expeditiously proceed toward listing and protecting these species. We look forward to the official response as required by the ESA” ( Miyoko Sakashita and  Shaye Wolf  (Center for Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California), “Before the Secretary of Commerce. Petition to list 83 coral species under the Endangered Species Act”, ”, 20 October 2009: http://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pr/species/petitions/83_corals_petition_2009.pdf ).

 



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