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We need to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by about 50% in the next 10 years to prevent irreversible and catastrophic changes in our climate. This is the conclusion of a comprehensive review of the latest science; see the October update for more info.
https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
“A massive, immediate transformation in the way the world’s population generates energy, uses transportation and grows food will be required to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/global-warming-climate-change-targets-un-report
Public policy
A simple, practical guide to climate policy is at:
The public wants 100% renewable energy.
Carbon fee-and-dividend bills were introduced in the House and Senate: H.R. 7173 / S. 3791
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/energy-innovation-and-carbon-dividend-act/
81% of registered voters support a transition to clean energy within 10 years, along with upgrades to buildings and transportation infrastructure, research into green technology, and jobs training.
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/the-green-new-deal-has-strong-bipartisan-support/
Climate finance should include near-term funding for high-cost abatement scenarios such as building retrofits:
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/20/getting-climate-finance-wrong/
The Supreme Court ruled that a “kids’ climate case” may move forward in lower courts, and the kids may argue that actions of the United States “have so profoundly damaged our home planet that they threaten plaintiffs’ fundamental constitutional rights to life and liberty.”
https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/110218zr2_8ok0.pdf
Signs of progress
International negotiators reached agreement on a uniform set of standards for measuring emissions and progress toward national goals.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/climate/cop24-katowice-climate-summit.html
Renewable energy costs less than fossil fuel energy, with wholesale prices below 3 cents per kWh for recent utility scale wind and solar projects.
In Australia, batteries have reduced grid stability service costs by 90%.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/11/tesla-giant-battery-australia-reduced-grid-service-cost/
Renewable energy can meet 100% of demand.
https://newatlas.com/study-100-percent-renewables-can-meet-energy-demand/54674/
In the USA, 100 cities are committed to using 100% clean energy.
https://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/case-study-report-cities-are-ready-for-100-clean-energy
Saudi Arabia is planning a solar farm 100 times larger than any other ever proposed
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-power-prices-are-beating-natural-gas-c9912054400c/
India cancelled construction of new coal plants to take advantage of inexpensive solar.
Zero emission cars are close to cost parity with fossil fuel powered cars.
Net Zero homes that produce as much energy as they use are now cost-effective.
https://www.rmi.org/zero-energy-homes-are-ready-for-mainstream-markets/
Warning signs
Global emissions increased again in 2018.
The world is not yet on track to “park the planet at a stable temperature.”
“It’s not fast enough. It’s not big enough. There’s not enough action.”
“Climate change and extreme weather topped the World Economic Forum’s annual list of risks facing businesses.”
https://grist.org/briefly/climate-change-hits-businesses-where-it-hurts-their-wallets/
The fierce July that saw monstrous wildfires, record heat and unprecedented flooding across the globe was fueled by man-made climate change...
Decisions now will have impacts that echo for generations, with “a surprisingly large impact of present choices on sea levels in the distant future.”
Extreme rainfall is wreaking havoc globally. See www.floodlist.com for more info.
Wildfires raged around the world, made worse by climate change.
Freak summer weather and wild jet-stream patterns are on the rise.
Extreme Changes Underway in Some of Antarctica’s Biggest Glaciers
Atlantic Ocean currents have been weakening.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5
Great Barrier Reef headed for “massive death.”
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/08/world/great-barrier-reef/
In Pakistan, crops are failing as extreme heat has reduced soil moisture by 80%.
https://mercury.postlight.com/amp?url=http://news.trust.org/item/20180531105811-yf0zn
In Iran “a 14-year drought has emptied villages, with residents moving to nearby cities where they often struggle to find jobs.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/world/middleeast/iran-protests-khamenei.html
Climate Change Is Already Depressing the Price of Flood-Prone Real Estate
Stories like the following are now common: Cars swept away by flash flood at dealership in Caldwell.
See the August 2018 update for more climate records and trends.
A bit of background info
· Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere acts to trap heat. Greenhouse gas emissions are “high and increasing” and greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for a very long time (centuries for CO2).
· Current total levels of greenhouse gases (over 400 ppm for CO2) are already creating wild weather, heat waves, droughts, and rising seas. CO2 in particular also changes the chemistry of the oceans and harms coral.
· The full effects of current greenhouse gas levels have not completely kicked in.
· Fundamentally, greenhouse gas emissions need to drop to zero to stabilize the situation. Equilibrium will be reached only after the full effect of the maximum level has kicked in. Massive re-forestation projects and other measures will most likely be required to reduce total greenhouse gas levels to safe levels.
Total damages from climate change depend on how quickly we act. What we learned in 2018 is how quickly we