Executive Summary
This report starts with one top story from 2016 and a summary of the current state of the climate to take stock of where we are right now as a new Congress and new Administration begin.
The report continues with a summary of major trends from 2016, with a few examples of each trend. These include:
· Impacts of climate change are noticeable and increasing
· We are at an economic tipping point favoring clean energy over fossil fuels
· Other countries are stepping up to the challenge, especially China and India
· Businesses, cities, and states are shifting to clean energy
· Public opinion in the U.S. favors clean energy
· Courts supported the right to a stable climate
· Science update
The report ends with a few notes about what Congress has done to help, and can do in 2017 to continue to address the issue.
Top story: major milestone passed
Atmospheric CO2 levels passed the 400 parts per million mark. (Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the levels were stable below 300 ppm for at least 10,000 years.)
The last time the earth had CO2 levels this high was about 4 million years ago; the earth was much warmer and, with less ice at the poles and in glaciers, sea levels were about 20 feet higher (estimates vary, with 20 feet near the low end).
http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/7/
Current state of the climate
Impacts of climate change have arrived and are now the subject of everyday conversation. Gardeners know the seasons do not come at the same time they did in the old days; roofers know that people are seeing more damage from leaks because storms deliver heavier rains; anyone tuning in to the weather report is more likely to hear “I’ve never seen anything like this before” (Fox News); corporate CEOs are more likely to report that quarterly results were off a bit because of extreme weather.
Impacts were felt around the globe with record heat and flooding (there is a trend toward heavier rainfalls because the atmosphere can hold more moisture than before). Sea ice continued to disappear.
Less noticeable but also very important is the impact to the oceans. Warmer temperatures produced record coral bleaching in 2016, and reduced pH from absorbing CO2 affected the ability of corals and other organisms to form their shells.
Climate change is the result of an imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy at the top of our atmosphere, estimated at 250 trillion watts. This imbalance represents future warming that will continue for decades. Given that impacts are already noticeable, we now talk about “avoiding the worst consequences” instead of talking about preventing impacts.
Allowing our energy imbalance to continue runs the risk of irreversible consequences such as desertification of large areas of the earth, large-scale crop failures, and loss of coastal cities. The increase in extreme weather we are already experiencing is likely to be irreversible on a scale of centuries.
Our climate has already warmed about 1 degree C since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Although global emissions have leveled off, the total levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. An analogy is that emissions are like spending while levels are like debt; our “spending” has leveled off but our “debt” continues to increase. We are still far from living within a budget that preserves a stable climate.
Getting our climate back into balance will require net zero emissions coupled with efforts such as reforestation and carbon capture to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere back to safe levels, estimated at 350 ppm CO2.
In 2016, several excellent graphics communicated some of these key points:
Warming trend: http://mashable.com/2016/05/10/visualization-global-warming
Trend in global sea ice area reduction: http://imgur.com/T20V2tk
Arctic ice volume loss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NP0L1PG9ag
Causes of climate change: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
More information and references are available at:
https://sites.google.com/site/climatenewsupdates/climate-change-briefing
Impacts of climate change are noticeable and increasing
Below are just a few examples of weather extremes that have become more common because of climate change:
Extreme heat: “Mind-boggling” heat record set in New Orleans
Drought: “Record-setting drought in Africa requires U.S. leadership on disaster relief” (Heritage Foundation)
Wildfires: An entire city of 60,000 (Ft. McMurray, Canada) was forced to evacuate as wildfires approached; “our struggling firefighting resources must be brought up to speed to match the evolving picture of longer fire seasons and more dangerous fires.”
A new study says that human-induced climate change has doubled the area affected by forest fires in the U.S. West over the last 30 years.
http://m.phys.org/news/2016-10-climate-western-forest.html
Sea level rise: “Miami Beach flood events have significantly increased over the last decade due to an acceleration of sea-level rise in South Florida.”
New Jersey forests near estuaries are being destroyed by saltwater incursion as sea levels rise.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ghost-forests-appear-as-rising-tides-kill-trees-20701
Ice loss:
Greenland’s ice melt season started two months early. “This April kickoff is so bizarrely early, scientists who study the ice sheet checked their analysis to make sure something wasn’t amiss before making the announcement.”
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/greenlands-melt-season-started-nearly-two-months-early-20237
Coral bleaching:
The Great Barrier Reef experienced its greatest die-off on record.
http://mashable.com/2016/11/28/great-barrier-reef-coral-death
Extreme rainfall:
20-30 inches of rain in the Baton Rouge area of Louisiana.
“Incessant rain paralyses life in Hyderabad” (six inches of rain fell overnight)
Many more examples are in the 2016 archives at:
https://sites.google.com/site/climatenewsupdates/archives-2016
Additional references for tracking impacts:
We are at an economic tipping point favoring clean energy over fossil fuels
“Unsubsidized utility-scale solar power costs $50 to $70 per megawatt-hour (or 5 to 7 cents a kilowatt hour), compared with $52 to $78 for the most efficient type of gas plant, according to a 2015 study by investment bank Lazard.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/utility-scale-solar-is-now-comparable-to-natural-gas-2016-7
Chile contracted for solar power at 2.9 cents per kilowatt hour (compare with retail rate of about 11 cents per kwh in New Jersey).
A new study found “a national power overhaul could save U.S. customers $47.2 billion annually, about three times the cost of the new transmission system.”
The electrical grid in Eastern U.S. can handle much more renewable energy without major changes.
“Energy experts say global investment patterns show a spectacular shift, with renewables on the rise and support for fossil fuels in sharp decline.”
http://climatenewsnetwork.net/fossil-fuels-investment-nosedive
Tesla captured 30% of the U.S. luxury sedan market and received 500,000 reservations sight-unseen for its future Model 3 electric car. The Ford Motor company expects electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids and all-electrics, to overtake gas within 15 years.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/tesla-dominates-u-s-luxury-sedan-sales
https://electrek.co/2017/01/03/ford-new-electric-cars/
Moody’s reported that climate change will affect the credit ratings of countries.
Investors increasingly want to know about how much climate risk companies are exposed to. A new set of standards was established for companies to disclose their financial risk from climate change in a consistent manner.
Other countries are stepping up to the challenge, especially China and India
China started cancelling coal-fired power plants that were under construction. It plans to invest $360 billion in clean energy, creating 13 million jobs and raising its percentage of clean energy from 12 percent to 15 percent by 2020.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-coal-idUSKCN0WQ0ZD
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html?_r=0
India unveiled the world’s largest solar power plant.
India announced plans to "exceed Paris targets by almost half and negate need for new coal-fired power stations."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
48 climate-vulnerable countries agreed to use only renewable energy by 2050.
Saudi Arabia is planning to transition its economy away from dependency on oil.
Scotland, Portugal, Denmark and Costa Rica have all been powered at times entirely by clean energy.
The Paris climate agreement was ratified, with a goal of keeping warming of the planet within 2 degrees Centigrade of warming.
Businesses, cities, and states are shifting to clean energy
Google announced it will use 100% clean energy for data centers and offices in 2017. Other companies, including Bank of America, Apple, Wells Fargo & Co., and General Motors (GM) also committed to get 100% of their electricity from clean sources in the future.
https://blog.google/topics/environment/100-percent-renewable-energy/
http://solarindustrymag.com/more-major-companies-commit-to-100-renewables
The state of California enacted bold climate legislation, establishing “one of the most ambitious carbon reduction goals in the world.”
New York State set a goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030.
Seventeen U.S. cities committed to shifting to 100% clean energy.
http://www.ecowatch.com/boulder-renewable-energy-1993991706.html
Public opinion in the U.S. favors clean energy
“Post-election survey showed strong, bi-partisan support for taking action to accelerate the development and use of clean energy in the United States.”
http://www.conservativeenergynetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Clean-Energy-Survey4.pdf
Courts supported the right to a stable climate
“A powerful, often overlooked tool to speed the response to climate change is the public trust doctrine, an ancient law with modern implications.”
http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/tribes-have-up-close-perspective-on-climate-change/
Science update
Linkages between climate change and extreme weather became clearer in 2016.
New Jersey researchers estimated that 67% of coastal flooding incidents in the U.S. were linked to human-caused climate change.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-human-fingerprints-on-coastal-floods-20050
Another study estimated that more than 300,000 New Jersey residents will be driven from their homes by sea level rise.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/rising_seas_could_force_837k_nj_resident_from_thei.html
Scientists warned of climate damage extending into many future generations, and that the time window to reduce carbon emissions and avoid irreparable damage is small.
http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2016/feb/scientists-say-window-reduce-carbon-emissions-small
Projections of impacts consistently moved in a direction of “worse than we thought.” For example, estimates of the amount of runoff water from Greenland ice melting were increased.
Congress can help
In the past, Congress has successfully taken on problems like acid rain and deterioration of the ozone layer. It has also spurred innovations like energy-efficient lighting; an LED bulb costing a few dollars can save more than $100 over its lifetime compared to the old bulbs, and we can thank Congress for making that happen with its 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act
In 2015, Congress extended tax incentives for wind and solar through 2020 to help expedite the transition to a clean energy economy.
Given the good economics of clean energy and existing tax incentives, one could ask whether Congress needs to do more. The reason the answer is yes is that climate change is hurting our economy, getting worse, and there is only a short time window to prevent some of the irreversible impacts (in fact, some impacts may already be irreversible). The public understands that the problem that will have the greatest impact if not addressed is climate change. And, as the saying goes, “a stitch in time saves nine.”
To tackle climate change, perhaps the simplest and most effective measure Congress can take is to enact a price on carbon. In a fee-and-dividend arrangement, with the fees on fossil fuels return directly to households, standard economic models show a boost to the national economy, job creation, and a reduction in emissions without becoming a burden on family budgets.
http://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/
The House Climate Solutions Caucus, which now includes 10 Republicans and 10 Democrats, is studying various options for Congress to respond to climate change.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/bipartisan-climate-solutions-caucus-expands-20-members/
Support for a price on carbon has come from multiple directions:
Nine reasons Millenials want to put a price on carbon:
“There’s a cheap, proven fix to the world’s biggest problem.” (CNN op-ed)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/19/opinions/sutter-carbon-tax-washington-british-columbia/index.html
ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson said climate change is real, serious, and there should be a price on carbon.
So here’s hoping that the U.S. Congress will join with companies, cities, states, and other countries in expediting a transition to a clean energy economy that will create jobs and restore the climate to the stability we used to have.