In this year-end climate update for 2017, I’ve put a sample of the news stories in the larger context of the state of our climate and fundamental facts about what it will take to restore balance.
There was some good news in 2017 about ways to address climate change, and public support for action. But first, a note about why action is necessary …
· Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere acts to trap heat. Greenhouse gas emissions are “high and increasing” and greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for a very long time (centuries for CO2).
· Current total levels of greenhouse gases (406 ppm for CO2) are already creating wild weather, heat waves, droughts, and rising seas. CO2 in particular also changes the chemistry of the oceans and harms coral.
· The full effects of current greenhouse gas levels have not completely kicked in.
· Fundamentally, greenhouse gas emissions need to drop to zero in a few decades to stabilize the situation. Equilibrium will only be reached after the full effect of the maximum level has kicked in. Massive re-forestation projects or other measures may also be required to reduce total greenhouse gas levels to safe levels.
· Total damages from climate change depend on how quickly we act. Many projections indicate we need global emissions reductions of 5 – 10% per year for an effective response.
Note that some statements above refer to both emissions and total levels. What we need to do is comparable to stopping deficit spending and then reducing the accumulated debt.
There’s no argument among experts about this general outline of the current state of the climate. As Yogi Berra might have said, “You could look it up!”
Unfortunately, some effects are irreversible at this point. I expect the community where I lived on the Florida coast (Siesta Key, elevation 3 feet) to disappear to rising seas, with no remaining chance of preventing that loss. But as long as there are some losses that can be prevented, we should work to prevent them. Economists generally agree the most efficient approach is to put a price on carbon.
First the good news
Greenhouse gas emissions are mainly from electricity generation, transportation, and heating and cooling. In all three areas, we are very close to a situation in which economics alone dictate the use of zero-emissions options
Installing new solar and wind capacity is already cheaper than continuing to run existing coal and gas-fired power plants in many cases, because once they are installed there is zero cost for fuel.
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-keep-getting-cheaper-33c38350fb95/
The total cost of ownership of zero-emission vehicles is less than the cost of gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles in many cases, because electric motors are 90% efficient compared to 30% for internal combustion.
New options for geothermal heating and cooling save homeowners money immediately in some cases. For example, a new spin-off of Google is saving homeowners money in New York.
The wind and solar industries are growing quickly. The October report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics says the fastest growing occupations are wind and solar installers.
https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_103.htm
There is broad global support for the transition to a zero-emissions economy. Massive shifts are occurring in energy financing; for example the World Bank will stop financing fossil fuel projects.
Within the United States, voters are ready for action on climate.
Top story
After 3 years of being flat, global greenhouse gas emissions rose again in 2017. We have a long way to go to achieve zero emissions, and we are currently headed in exactly the opposite direction. Bold, effective global action is imperative.
New Jersey stories
Some residents (e.g. Port Monmouth) have to coordinate their drives with tidal schedules because of frequent flooding of roads.
More frequent flooding is on the way.
“The Army Corps and state officials began a three-year study of back bay flooding in December in New Jersey that seeks cost-effective solutions that can be replicated elsewhere.”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/06/back-bay_flooding_increasing_problem_for_njs_coast.html
Thousands of acres of “ghost forests” are being created by saltwater intrusion.
New Jersey is on track to meet its RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) ten years ahead of schedule (the legislature voted to increase the goal).
https://solarindustrymag.com/n-j-lawmakers-pass-bill-increase-state-solar-goal
Impacts on communities
Many communities suffered from climate change impacts; the list is long and includes many types of impacts. Not only are long-term trends and underlying causes clear, in some cases scientists can now definitively state that a specific event was caused by climate change.
Trend: “US bill for natural disasters smashes records”
Example:
Puerto Rico was devastated after Hurricane Maria, which dumped more than 30 inches of rainfall in a single day in some areas.
http://www.abccolumbia.com/2017/09/21/island-of-puerto-rico-destroyed-by-hurricane-maria/
Public policy
Carbon markets are popping up globally, and in some regions of the U.S. China launched the world’s largest carbon market.
https://qz.com/1159667/china-is-launching-the-worlds-largest-carbon-market/
MIT Technology Review reports a surge of carbon pricing proposals.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609560/surge-of-carbon-pricing-proposals-coming-in-the-new-year/
In terms of Federal climate policy the U.S. became a rogue nation in 2017. Fortunately cities, states, companies, and other organizations remain committed to addressing the problem.
Scientific research
As in previous years, many articles describing climate research contain the phrase “worse than we thought.”
Business perspective
Many businesses committed to zero emissions operations, and some shifted their business models toward clean energy. Volkswagen will invest $84 billion in zero emissions vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massive-billion-investment-in-electric-cars-and-batteries/amp/
What other countries are doing
Countries around the world are working toward the goals of the Paris climate agreement. For example, in the area of transportation, China, England, Germany, India, the Netherlands, and Norway are making plans to phase out cars that burn fossil fuels.
Risks
Along with other environmental trends, climate change is putting our food supply at risk.
More climate news stories from 2017 can be found at:
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/12/18/mapped-world-tour-2017-climate-change-news/
Examples of the kind of disruption caused by climate change
For a sample of disruptive weather extremes and other impacts of climate change I reported during 2017, see:
https://www.sites.google.com/site/climatenewsupdates/archives-2017
A few other references are:
Reference for tracking impacts: http://www.climatesignals.org
Reference for tracking flooding: http://floodlist.com/