Do you know what city this is? It might not look like it, but this is one of the most populous and wealthiest cities in the world. This picture was taken in 1987 – incidentally the year I was born – and the look of this city has changed a lot since then. Here it is, viewed from the same spot, in 2013, just 26 years later. The city is Shanghai in China. The tallest building in the back, standing incomplete in 2013 but today fully built, is Shanghai Tower. It is over 2,000 feet tall, and for now the second tallest skyscraper in the world. Economic growth in China over the past 30 years has been nothing short of a miracle. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty, gotten educations, travelled the world, and been exposed to incredible new art, culture, and ideas. The reason for China’s recent success seems well understood: China’s economy industrialized, shifting from an agrarian economy of farmers to an industrial economy of manufacturers. Of Course. Case closed. But I have one nagging question about all this: Why didn’t China’s economy industrialize sooner? After all, the economies of Europe and America industrialized much earlier. Well, we might say it was because the Chinese were communists, of course, and they stopped it from happening. Ok, but that only gets us back to the 1950s. Why didn’t China industrialize in 1850? Or 1800? Or 1700? Or 1500? Or 1 AD? Or 500 BC? For that matter, what were the people of the rest of Asia, or Europe, or Africa, or the Americas doing for 10,000 years after farming that they weren’t able to get started on industrialization? --It’s not like the benefits were small. As we have seen, the typical person lived on about $3 per day in consumption, give or take a dollar or two. By that I mean, you could buy everything the typical person of 8000 BC, or 1 AD, or 1500 AD, or for that matter 1800 AD consumed in a year in stores today – clothes, food, shelter, all of it - at the cost of around $3 per day. The average person today produces and consumes nearly $50 per day when adjusted to the prices in U.S. stores. And we here in the United States enjoy an average of nearly $180 per day. That is a factor of 60. We produce and consume 60x more every day than our not-so-distant ancestors. Why did it take so long for this to happen? Imagine, had we stumbled upon this economic arrangement just 100 years earlier, we might be enjoying average annual incomes today as high as $2 million! --You’ll remember that in the 14th century, Europe, and Asia, and much of Africa as well was devastated by the bubonic plague. The 15th century, however, was a more optimistic time. They called it the Age of Discovery, and newly developed full-rigged ships were able to sail the high seas. Christopher Columbus sailed to the Americas, Vasco De Gama sailed around the Horn of Africa to reach India, and in the early 16th century Magellan led a voyage around the entire world. These expeditions, and the many in between, were all motivated by commerce. In 1498, when Vasco de Gama reached Cochin, India, he filled his ship with pepper. The price in Cochin was about 4% of the price in Europe, and the resulting profits made him and others very wealthy. In the centuries that followed, trade became a major focus of governments, who all consolidated their power in their lands. --In the New World, Britain found a great deal of success in the 17th century. Jamestown, the first British colony, was founded in 1607, and by 1664 the British had taken New Amsterdam from the Dutch and renamed it New York. Growing trade across the Atlantic began to incentivize changes to the British economy as they specialized in the handicraft sector. The colonies exported lumber, furs, fried fish, whale oil, iron, gunpowder, rice, tobacco, and indigo to Britain, while Britain exported manufactured goods, textiles, furniture, and other hand-made luxuries. At the time, all of these goods were produced by small outfits, usually just a small family of weavers or artisans who made their wares by hand. --Starting in the mid-18th century, these handicraft sectors started to see rapid change in their production processes. The textile industry was one of the first to be revolutionized. But the new machines didn’t owe much to scientific discoveries. None involved great conceptual leaps; instead, they required years of experimental engineering to come up with designs that worked reliably. The flying shuttle greatly improved the productivity of someone working with a loom, but it was a fairly simple invention. As was the spinning jenny, which helped make yarn. Eventually came steam power. The efficiency of steam engines increased so that they used between one-fifth and one-tenth as much fuel as the first ones did. The cheap costs led to the adaptation of stationary steam engines to rotary motion, which made them suitable for industrial uses and steam power underwent a rapid expansion after 1800.It’s all a little boring isn’t it? Little changes here and there which made this or that a little more productive. So what. Big deal. But the thing is that this part wasn’t so unusual. The Ancient Sumerians made little changes here and there to improve productivity too. So did the Egyptians, and the Greeks, and especially the Romans, who may very well have been on the verge of something within shouting distance of industrialization before the empire collapsed. The thing that is different here is that the tinkerers kept on tinkering. They kept working on the inventions and improving them, and they turned their eyes to other types of production and tinkered there as well. For some reason, unlike the past, the tinkering didn’t stop, and hasn’t stopped to this day. --That the Industrial Revolution did start somewhere and not everywhere is a little helpful. We know that it started in Britain, but also happened alongside similar advancements in the Netherlands, but everyone else were copycats. We can compare and contrast and try and get a sense of how the Industrial Revolution happened where and when it did as opposed to happening in France or Italy or China or India or Ancient Rome. To start to understand, we can begin with a story. Legend has it that in 1589 a man named William Lee was trying to win the affections of a girl but found that she was more interested in knitting than in him. So, he invented a labor-saving knitting machine called the ‘Stocking Frame’. The machine imitated the movements of hand knitters, replicating a very fine motion similar to softly rubbing your fingers together. He demonstrated the machine for Queen Elizabeth I, hoping to obtain a patent, but the Queen denied his application. The queen said to Lee: "Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” Lee tried to make it work in France, but political instability stifled his efforts, and he died in distress in 1614. His invention did live on, and it was eventually important to the Power Loom and other developments, but you can see how innovation gets stifled. Even after the Glorious Revolution diminished the power of the monarch and promoted freer markets, workers would often take direct action against new machines, breaking them and running inventors out of town. John Kay, who invented the ‘fly shuttle’ in 1733, improving textile production, had to flee his town hidden in a wool sack, and eventually had to flee Britain. But by the 1770s, Richard Arkwright, the inventor of the water frame, was earning 20,000 pounds a year in royalties – roughly $4.5 million in today’s U.S. dollars - and he was reputed to be the richest commoner in the Kingdom. What happened in between? Why did the Industrial Revolution start in Britain?