For years, firefighters in California have relied on a vast network of more than 1,000 mountaintop cameras to detect wildfires. Operators have stared into computer screens around the clock looking for wisps of smoke.

多年來，加州消防隊要偵測野火，仰賴的是由超過一千個山頂攝影機組成的廣大網路。操作員得無時無刻盯著電腦螢幕，尋找縷縷煙霧。

This summer, with wildfire season well underway, California’s main firefighting agency is trying a new approach: training an artificial intelligence program to do the work.

今年夏天，隨著野火季即將到來，加州主要消防單位正進行一項新嘗試：訓練人工智慧來做這項工作。

The idea is to harness one of the state’s great strengths — expertise in AI — and deploy it to prevent small fires from becoming the kinds of conflagrations that have killed scores of residents and destroyed thousands of homes in California over the past decade.

他們的想法是，運用並部署人工智慧技術這項加州的優勢，防止小火災演變成過去十年內奪走數十名加州居民性命、摧毀數千棟房屋的那種大火。

Officials involved in the pilot program say they are happy with early results. Around 40% of the time, the AI software was able to alert firefighters of the presence of smoke before dispatch centers received 911 calls.

參與試用計畫的官員表示，他們對初步成果感到滿意。大約40%情況下，人工智慧軟體能在調度中心接獲911通報前警告消防隊有煙霧出現。

“It has absolutely improved response times,” said Phillip SeLegue, the staff chief of intelligence for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the state’s main firefighting agency better known as Cal Fire. In about two dozen cases, SeLegue said, the AI identified fires that the agency never received 911 calls for. The fires were extinguished when they were still small and manageable.

加州主要消防單位、常被稱作「加火」的加州森林防火廳情資部門負責人賽勒格說：「它絕對改善了反應時間。」賽勒格表示，在20多個案例中，人工智慧辨識出該單位從未接獲911通報的火災。當火勢還很小可以控制時，野火就被撲滅了。

After an exceptionally wet winter, California’s fire season has not been as destructive — so far — as in previous years.

加州剛度過一個格外潮濕的冬天，截至目前為止，今年野火季並未像往年那樣具破壞性。

Cal Fire counts 4,792 wildfires so far this year, lower than the five-year average of 5,422 for this time of year. Perhaps more important, the number of acres burned this year has been only one-fifth of the five-year average of 812,068 acres.

加州森林防火廳統計，今年已發生4792起野火，比過去5年來相同時段的平均值5422起還低。更重要的或許是，今年焚燒面積只有過去5年平均值812068英畝的五分之一。

The AI pilot program, which began in late June and covered six of Cal Fire’s command centers, will be rolled out to all 21 command centers starting in September.

加州森林防火廳6個指揮中心6月底引進這套人工智慧試用軟體，預計9月起全部21個指揮中心都會採用。

But the program’s apparent success comes with caveats. The system can detect fires only visible to the cameras. And at this stage, humans are still needed to make sure the AI program is properly identifying smoke.

軟體的成效雖顯著，但也伴隨一些限制。該系統只能偵測攝影鏡頭可見的火災。且在目前階段，人員仍需在旁確認人工智慧軟體有正確辨識煙霧。

Cal Fire’s mission is to suppress 95% of all fires when they are 10 acres or less. The AI program will help the agency meet that goal, said Neal Driscoll, a geophysicist at the University of California, San Diego, and a leader of the AI project.

加州森林防火廳的任務，是在95%野火火勢延燒少於10英畝時就將其撲滅。聖地牙哥加州大學地球物理學家、這項人工智慧計畫負責人之一迪里斯可表示，人工智慧將協助加州森林防火廳達成目標。

“The success of this project will be the fires you will never hear about,” he said.

他說：「那些你從未聽聞的火災，將是這項計畫的成功之處。」

文／Thomas Fuller　譯／陳曉慈

加州野火示意圖。(美聯社)

紐時賞析／加州消防廳訓練人工智慧偵測野火 2023-09-13 07:00 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7426981?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate

紐時賞析／氣候變遷不只是環保問題如今更成為文化戰爭議題

2023-08-23 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7379693

氣候變遷

熱浪助長野火肆虐，圖為希臘羅得島7月份發生野火，遊客連忙到渡假飯店的泳池裝水，希望能澆熄飯店附近的火苗。美聯社

Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue

氣候如今已成為文化戰爭議題

Understanding climate denial used to seem easy: It was all about greed. Delve into the background of a researcher challenging the scientific consensus, a think tank trying to block climate action or a politician pronouncing climate change a hoax and you would almost always find major financial backing from the fossil fuel industry.

以前要理解否認氣候變遷似乎很容易：一切都與貪婪有關。無論是挑戰科學共識的研究員、嘗試阻擋氣候行動的智庫，抑或將氣候變遷斥為騙局的政治人物，只要深入探究其背景，你幾乎總能在主要投資人中發現化石燃料產業的身影。

Those were simpler, more innocent times, and I miss them.

那些是比較簡單、純真的時光，而我想念那些時光。

True, greed is still a major factor in anti-environmentalism. But climate denial has also become a front in the culture wars, with right-wingers rejecting the science in part because they dislike science in general and opposing action against emissions out of visceral opposition to anything liberals support.

當然，貪婪仍是反環保主義背後的一項主要因素。但否認氣候變遷也已成為文化戰爭的前線，右派拒絕科學的部分原因是他們基本上討厭科學，而反對減碳舉措，因為他們本能性反對任何自由派支持的事物。

And this cultural dimension of climate arguments has emerged at the worst possible moment — a moment when both the extreme danger from unchecked emissions and the path toward slashing those emissions are clearer than ever.

且氣候爭論的文化面恰在最糟糕的時間點浮現——毫無節制排碳所造成的極端危險，以及削減這些碳排的方式，兩者皆前所未有清晰。

Worldwide, July was the hottest month on record, with devastating heat waves in many parts of the globe. Extreme weather events are proliferating.

在世界各地，7月是史上最熱月份，多個地區遭致災性熱浪侵襲。極端氣候事件激增。

At the same time, technological progress in renewable energy has made it possible to envisage major reductions in emissions at little or no cost in terms of economic growth and living standards.

與此同時，再生能源領域的科學進展使人們得以預見，大幅減少碳排，並在經濟成長及生活品質上付出微小或零代價，並非不可能。

About attitudes toward science: As recently as the mid-2000s, Republicans and Democrats had similar levels of trust in the scientific community. Since then, however, Republican trust has plunged as Democratic trust has risen; there’s now a 30-point gap between the parties.

有關對科學的態度：直到不久前的2000年代中期，共和黨與民主黨對科學界都保有相同程度的信任。但自那之後，共和黨的信任大幅減少，民主黨的信任則不斷提高；如今兩黨間有30個百分點的差距。

The fact that the climate war is now part of the culture war worries me, a lot. Special interests can do a great deal of damage, but they can be bought off or counterbalanced with other special interests. Indeed, an important part of President Joe Biden’s climate strategy is the idea that renewable energy investments, which have been soaring since his legislation passed, will give many businesses and communities a stake in continuing the green transition.

氣候戰爭現已成為文化戰爭的一部分，這使我憂心，非常憂心。特殊利益可能造成巨大傷害，但其他特殊利益或能收買或制衡它們。誠然，拜登總統的氣候變遷策略中，一個重要的想法即是投資再生能源將使許多企業及團體受益，持續推動綠能轉型。而自從他的法案通過後，這項投資就持續飆升。

But such rational if self-interested considerations won’t do much to persuade people who believe that green energy is a conspiracy against the American way of life. So, the culture war has become a major problem for climate action — a problem we really, really don’t need right now.

但這種理性甚或自利的考量，對那些認為綠能是一場反對美國生活方式陰謀的人，無法發揮多大說服作用。因此，文化戰爭已成為氣候運動的一項主要問題，一個我們現在真的、真的不需要的問題。

文／Paul Krugman　譯／陳曉慈

紐時賞析／對抗熱浪侵襲歐洲採傳統造屋工法

2023-08-15 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7364118

高溫

今年夏季歐洲大部分地區蒙受熾熱高溫籠罩問題。圖為希臘愛琴海邊度假戲水的民眾。美聯社資料照

As Heat Waves Intensify, Europe’s Cities Rely on Age-Old Ways to Stay Cool

歐洲靠傳統造屋工法對抗熱浪

There is no single architectural technique that can solve the problem of sweltering heat, which has gripped large parts of Europe this summer. But on a continent where air conditioning is relatively limited, sustainable building techniques can go a long way in protecting residents, according to experts.

今年夏季歐洲大部分地區蒙受熾熱高溫籠罩問題，並無單一建築技術可以解決，但專家指出，在空調設備相對有限的歐洲，永續性造屋技術可能在保護居民上大有可為。

Those features, which include courtyards, heavy shutters, reflective painting and white-stone facades, can keep homes cool naturally and reduce the need for air conditioning. The problem, particularly for Mediterranean cities that have endured scorching temperatures this summer, is that many newer buildings have been built using Western styles that trap heat, said Marialena Nikolopoulou, a professor of sustainable architecture at the University of Kent in England.

包括庭院、厚重的窗戶遮板，反光油漆和白色石造立面，那些特色都可以使房屋自然保持涼爽，並減少空調需求。但英格蘭肯特大學永續建築學教授瑪莉連娜．尼可洛普魯表示，問題在於許多較新的建築是使用會讓熱氣滯留的西方風格建成，尤其對於今夏飽受炎熱高溫的地中海城市來說。

“We’ve started importing Western architecture and forgetting about local traditions,” Nikolopoulou said, speaking from Athens, Greece, the hottest capital on the continent — with an average daily maximum temperature of 33.4 Celsius in July — and one of the most densely populated. Modern high-rise buildings and the use of materials like asphalt for roads trap heat, contributing to the “heat island” effect, in which cities are hotter than surrounding rural areas. A heat wave in Greece has led to tinder-dry conditions that have stoked wildfires in parts of the country.

「我們已開始引進西方建築，並遺忘在地傳統」，尼可洛普魯表示；她發言時身處希臘雅典，是全歐洲最熱的首都，7月平均每日最高溫達攝氏33.4度，人口稠密度在歐洲數一數二。當代高樓建築，以及使用柏油等材料來鋪路，會使熱氣留滯造成「熱島」效應，讓城市比周圍鄉村地區更炎熱。希臘熱浪造成乾燥環境，已在該國局部地區引發數起野火。

In Mediterranean countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, traditional houses tend to include qualities that allow for breezes to run through them. Thick walls help absorb heat during the day and release it at night, and features that provide shade, like pergolas, also serve to keep residents cool and reduce sun exposure, said Catalina Spataru, a professor of global energy and resources at the University College London Energy Institute. Narrow passageways in some city centers and tree-lined streets also provide shade for pedestrians.

在希臘、義大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等地中海國家，傳統房屋往往納入可使微風流通的特性。倫敦大學學院能源研究所的全球能源與資源教授卡塔利娜．史帕塔魯指出，厚重牆壁有助於在日間吸收熱能並於晚間釋出，另外像是涼棚等提供遮蔭的特色，也可用以讓居民常保涼爽並降低日照曝曬。部分城市中心狹窄的通道和沿路植樹的街道，也為行人提供遮蔭。

Europe is experiencing heat waves at a rate that is more frequent and more intense than in many other parts of the world, and numerous homes are not equipped with air-conditioning.

歐洲當前受熱浪侵襲的頻率，比起世界許多其他地區更加頻繁且猛烈，而大量住家並未裝設空調。

Cooling experts say that increased reliance on energy-guzzling air conditioning is not a sustainable solution. Conventional cooling devices, including air conditioners and refrigerators, already account for as much as 10% of all global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a World Bank report published in 2019. That amount is twice the emissions generated from aviation and sea travel combined, the report found.

製冷專家表示，加強依賴能耗驚人的空調設備，並非永續解決方案。根據世界銀行2019年發布的報告，空調、冰箱等傳統製冷裝置，已占全球溫室氣體排放量多達10%。報告發現，該項數字是空中和海上運輸合計造成排放量的兩倍。

文／Jenny Gross　譯／高詣軒

說文解字看新聞

【高詣軒】

今年7月高溫破紀錄，南歐熱浪尤為嚴重，紐時分析找回歐洲傳統造屋技術，可能使當前危機獲得降溫。

傳統建築特色中的"shutter"指活動式窗戶遮陽板，如英國知名建築師克拉克（George Clarke）曾說："My favourite way to dress a bay window is with shutters."；亦可指相機內調節光線的快門，當動詞可指關閉辦公室或門市：The company shuttered its Hong Kong business a year ago.

受熱浪席捲的希臘陷入"tinder-dry"，非常乾燥易燃：The whole forest is tinder-dry.。而裝載著火種的容器"tinderbox"，除了可比喻高度易燃的地區或物品，也用來描述容易爆發戰火或衝突頻繁的區域，好比火藥庫：The area is a tinderbox that could again plunge the country into civil war.。

stoke指添加燃料使火勢更旺，引申為「煽動」可接up，stoke fear/anger/envy，2014年時任美國副總統的拜登，就俄羅斯侵擾烏克蘭表示："No nation should stoke instability in its neighbor’s country."

紐時賞析／氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高

2023-07-18 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7301934

紐時賞析

根據一份發表在《自然》期刊的研究，隨著氣候暖化，山區將出現比之前認為要更極端的降雨量，以及隨之而來的更多危險。法新社

Climate Change Can Turn Snow Into Rain, Raising Risks in Mountain Zones

氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高

As the climate warms, mountain regions will get more extreme rainfall than previously thought, and more of the dangers that come with it, according to a study published in the journal Nature.

根據一份發表在《自然》期刊的研究，隨著氣候暖化，山區將出現比之前認為要更極端的降雨量，以及隨之而來的更多危險。

While scientists have studied how climate change may increase extreme precipitation overall, until now they hadn’t teased apart how much of the most extreme precipitation will fall as snow and how much as rain. The distinction is important because rain tends to produce more hazards for humans than snow does, including floods, landslides and soil erosion.

雖然科學家已經研究氣候變遷可能增加總體極端降水量，但直到現在，他們還沒有梳理清楚最極端的降水量中，有多少是降雪，多少是降雨。這種區別十分重要，因為比起雪，雨往往對人類造成更多危害，包括洪水、山崩跟土壤侵蝕。

As the planet heats up, snow is starting to turn into rain, even in the mountains. The study found that for every 1 degree Celsius that the planet warms, higher elevations can expect 15% more extreme rainfall.

隨著地球溫度上升，雪正開始變為雨，即使在山區亦然。這項研究發現，地球每變暖攝氏一度，較高海拔就可以預期增加15%的極端降雨量。

“This is the first time that it has ever been quantified,” said the study’s lead author, Mohammed Ombadi, an environmental data scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This increase in extreme rainfall is “almost double” the increase in total extreme precipitation, including both rain and snow, that climate scientists previously expected. The precipitation finding applies only to the world’s highest regions, above approximately 2,000 meters of elevation.

研究主要作者、勞倫斯柏克萊國家實驗室環境資料科學家翁巴迪說，「這是第一次對此進行量化」。包括雨跟雪兩者在內，這種極端降雨量的增加，是氣候科學家先前預期的總極端降水量增加值「幾乎翻倍」。這項降水量調查結果僅適用於海拔約2000公尺以上的全世界最高區域。

But about one-quarter of the human population lives either in mountain regions or directly downstream from them, Ombadi said. While landslides don’t travel very far, flooding tends to affect people downstream more.

但翁巴迪說，約四分之一人口生活在山區或山區的直接下游。雖然山崩不會行進很遠，洪水影響下游民眾往往更嚴重。

In their study, Ombadi and his colleagues analyzed historical data from 1950 to 2019 as well as projections of climate change through the end of the 21st century. They focused on the temperate and Arctic regions of the Northern Hemisphere because data from the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere is lacking.

在他們的研究中，翁巴迪與他的同僚分析1950至2019年的歷史資料，以及直到21世紀末的氣候變遷預測。因為缺乏南半球與熱帶的資料，他們專注於北半球溫帶與北極地區。

As they modeled different global warming scenarios, the researchers found that extreme rainfall kept increasing steadily, at the same rate, for each degree of warming. “If you have 1 degree of warming, then that’s a 15% increase. If it’s 3 degrees, then that’s going to be a 45% increase in rainfall,” Ombadi explained.

當他們為不同的全球暖化情境建模，研究人員發現，每變暖一度，極端降雨量就按相同速率繼續穩定增加。翁巴迪解釋，「如果變暖一度，那就是增加15%。如果是三度，那麼降雨量將增加45%」。

This was a surprise, as the team expected the increase in rainfall to slow down and plateau as temperatures rose more and more. They used several different climate models, with relatively consistent results between all of them. “The big message is that every degree matters,” Ombadi said.

這是一個意外發現，因為團隊預期，隨著氣溫升得愈來愈高，降雨量的增加將放緩與穩定。他們使用幾種不同的氣候模型，而所有模型之間的結果相對一致。翁巴迪說，「重要的訊息是，每一度都重要」。

文／Delger Erdenesanaa　譯／周辰陽

紐時賞析／科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫

2023-05-09 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7146124

高溫

地球上仍有許多地區尚未經歷過極端高溫，這可能導致他們還沒做好準備。法新社

Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat

科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫

Global warming is making dangerously hot weather more common, and more extreme, on every continent. A new study by researchers in Britain takes a unique approach to identifying which places are most at risk.

全球暖化使危險的炎熱天氣在各大陸更普遍且更極端。英國一項新研究採取一個獨特方法，確認哪些地方風險最高。

When the mercury spikes, communities can suffer for many reasons: because nobody checks in on older people living alone, because poorer people don’t have air conditioning, because workers don’t have much choice but to toil outdoors. The new study focuses on one simple reason societies might be especially vulnerable to an extreme heat wave: because they haven’t been through one before.

氣溫升高時，社群可能由於許多理由受苦：因為沒有人察看獨居老人的狀況，因為較窮苦的民眾沒有空調，因為工人別無選擇只能在室外辛苦工作。這項新研究關注一些社群可能特別容易受極端熱浪影響的一個簡單理由：因為他們以前沒有經歷過。

Whether it’s heat or floods or epidemics of disease, societies are generally equipped to handle only the gravest disaster they have experienced in recent memory. Right after a catastrophe, people and policymakers are hyper-aware of the risks and how to respond, said Dann Mitchell, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol in England and an author of the study. “And then, as the years go on, you sort of forget and you’re not so bothered,” he said.

無論是高溫、洪水還是疾病流行，社會通常只能應對他們近來經歷過最嚴重的災難。英國布里斯托大學氣候科學家、該研究的一名作者米契爾表示，一場大災難過後，民眾和政策制定者非常明白相關風險和如何應對災害，「然後，隨著歲月流逝，你就會有點忘記，你也不會那麼在意了」。

Mitchell and his colleagues looked at maximum daily temperatures around the world between 1959 and 2021. They found that regions covering 31% of Earth’s land surface experienced heat so extraordinary that, statistically, it shouldn’t have happened. These places, the study argues, are now prepared to some degree for future severe hot spells.

米契爾和他的同事檢視1959至2021年全球每日最高溫。他們發現，地球陸地表面31%地區經歷過非比尋常的高溫，從統計學而言，這根本不該發生。該研究認為，這些地區如今某種程度上已為未來的酷熱做好準備。

But there are still many areas that, simply by chance, haven’t yet experienced such extreme heat. So they might not be as prepared.

然而，仍有許多地區剛好尚未經歷過這種極端高溫，因此他們可能沒做好準備。

According to the study, these include economically developed places like Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, plus the region of China around Beijing. But they also include developing countries like Afghanistan, Guatemala, Honduras and Papua New Guinea, that are more likely to lack resources to keep people safe.

研究指出，這些地區包括德國、荷蘭、比利時和盧森堡等經濟發達地區，以及中國大陸北京周圍地區，也包括阿富汗、瓜地馬拉、宏都拉斯和巴布亞紐幾內亞等開發中國家，他們更可能缺乏保障人民安全的資源。

Other areas at particular risk include far eastern Russia, northwestern Argentina and part of northeastern Australia.

其他特別具有風險的地方包括俄羅斯遠東地區、阿根廷西北部和澳洲東北部部分地區。

The study was published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.

這項研究周二發表在「自然通訊」期刊。

文／Raymond Zhong　譯／羅方妤

紐時賞析／加州小鎮淹大水農人辛勤積攢一夕成空

2023-03-14 09:00 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/7023972

加州小鎮慘遭洪水侵襲。法新社

In a California Town, Farmworkers Start From Scratch After Surprise Flood

加州小鎮淹大水農人辛勤積攢一夕成空

Until the floodwaters came, until they rushed in and destroyed nearly everything, the little white house had been Cecilia Birrueta’s dream.

在洪水來臨、衝進屋內並幾乎摧毀一切以前，這棟小白房是西西莉亞．畢魯耶塔的夢想結晶。

She and her husband bought the two-bedroom fixer-upper 13 years ago, their reward for decades of working minimum-wage jobs, first cleaning houses in Los Angeles and now milking cows and harvesting pistachios in California’s Central Valley.

她與丈夫13年前買下這棟待翻新的兩房老屋，是兩人數十年來從事最低工資工作的回報，起初在洛杉磯當家務清潔人員，如今在加州中央谷地擔任牛奶工人和收割開心果。

The couple replaced the weathered wooden floors, installed a new stove and kitchen sink, and repainted the living room walls a warm burgundy. Here, they raised their three children, the oldest now at the University of California, Davis.

兩人把殘破的木地板換新、增添了新爐灶及廚房流理台，並將客廳牆面重新粉刷成溫暖的酒紅色。他們在這裡養育三個孩子，老大如今已是戴維斯加州大學學生。

Birrueta and her husband felt content. Until last month. Until the floodwaters came.

畢魯耶塔和丈夫感到很滿足。直到上月。直到洪水來臨。

A brutal set of atmospheric rivers in California unleashed a disaster in Planada, an agricultural community of 4,000 residents in the flatlands about an hour west of Yosemite National Park. During one storm in early January, a creek just outside of town busted through old farm levees and sent muddy water gushing into the streets.

一連串猛烈大氣河流肆虐加州，在普拉那達造成一場災難。這是一個4000人口的農業社區，位於優勝美地國家公園以西約一小時車程的平地上。一月稍早一場暴雨讓鎮外一條小溪暴漲，溪水衝潰老舊的農場堤防，泥流湧進街道。

For several days, the entire town looked like a lagoon. Weeks after record-breaking storms wreaked havoc across California and killed at least 21 people, some of the hardest-hit communities are still struggling to recover.

有好幾天，整個小鎮看起來就像一座潟湖。在破紀錄大雨肆虐整個加州導致至少21人喪生的數周後，一些受創最嚴重的社區仍在努力恢復。

The flood ruined the two cars owned by Birrueta and her family and destroyed most of their clothes. The walls with the burgundy paint that she had picked out had rotted through.

洪水毀了畢魯耶塔與家人的兩輛汽車，並破壞他們的大部分衣物。她挑選的酒紅色漆粉刷的牆面，也被洪水泡爛。

Birrueta, her husband and their 14-year-old son and 10-year-old daughter had to move into a camp that typically houses migrant farmworkers, who arrive each spring with few belongings and the hope of building a life like the Birruetas had. There, 41 families from Planada are staying in long beige cabins and relying on space heaters for warmth because the camps lack furnaces.

畢魯耶塔和她丈夫以及他們的14歲兒子與10歲女兒，不得不住進通常容納農場移工的營地，這些農工每年春天會來，帶著為數不多的行李，期待建立如畢魯耶塔曾經擁有的生活。在那裡，41個來自普拉那達的家庭住在淺褐色長型小棚屋裡，在沒有暖氣爐的營地倚賴移動式電暖器取暖。

“We came as immigrants, we started with nothing,” said Birrueta, 40, who was born in Mexico. “We bought a place of our own that we thought would be safe for our kids, and then we lost it. We lost everything.”

「我們以移民身分到來，白手起家」，出生於墨西哥、今年40歲的畢魯耶塔說，「我們買下一塊自己的地方，以為能讓孩子們安全，然後我們失去了它。我們失去了所有。」

The recent floods dealt a painful blow to a community in which more than one-third of households are impoverished. Roughly one-fourth of residents are estimated to be undocumented immigrants, making them ineligible for some forms of disaster relief.

最近的洪水對這個逾三分之一家庭為貧困戶的社區造成了慘痛打擊。根據估計，此地約四分之一居民為無證移民，讓他們無法領取某些形式的災害津貼。

文／Soumya Karlamangla、Viviana Hinojos　譯／陳曉慈

紐時賞析／人類對地球影響大科學家提全新地質年代：人類世

2023-01-04 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/6877284

紐時賞析

人類活動使地球進入「人類世」，圖為烏克蘭中部的克利福洛鐵礦砂礦場。（紐約時報）

The Next Epoch Of Planet Earth Might Be Today

地球或已處於全新地質年代：人類世

The official timeline of Earth’s history could soon include the age of nuclear weapons, human-caused climate change and the proliferation of plastics, garbage and concrete across the planet.

地球歷史的正式時間表可能很快就會包括核武時代、人為造成的氣候變遷以及塑膠、垃圾和混凝土在地球上的擴散。

In short, the present.

簡言之，就在現在。

Ten thousand years after our species began forming primitive agrarian societies, a panel of scientists on Saturday took a big step toward declaring a new interval of geologic time: the Anthropocene, the age of humans.

在人類開始形成原始農業社會一萬年後，一個科學家小組周六朝著宣布一個新的地質年代區間邁出一大步：人類世，即人類的年代。

Our current geologic epoch, the Holocene, began 11,700 years ago with the end of the last big ice age. The panel’s roughly three dozen scholars appear close to recommending that, actually, we have spent the past few decades in a brand-new time unit, one characterized by human-induced, planetary-scale changes that are unfinished but very much underway.

我們目前的地質年代，也就是全新世，始於1萬1700年前最後一個大冰河時代的結束。該小組大約36位學者顯然即將建議，事實上過去幾十年我們一直處在一個全新的時間單位中，其特徵為人類所引起、尚未完成但正在進行的行星尺度變化。

“If you were around in 1920, your attitude would have been, ‘Nature’s too big for humans to influence,’” said Colin N. Waters, a geologist and chair of the Anthropocene Working Group, the panel that has been deliberating on the issue since 2009. The past century has upended that thinking, Waters said. “It’s been a shock event, a bit like an asteroid hitting the planet.”

地質學家兼人類世工作小組主席沃特斯說：「若你身處1920年左右，你的態度會是『大自然太大了，人類無法影響』」。該小組自2009年來一直在思考這個問題。沃特斯表示，過去一個世紀顛覆了這種想法，「這是個令人震驚的事件，有點像小行星撞擊地球。」

The working group’s members on Saturday completed the first in a series of internal votes on details including when exactly they believe the Anthropocene began. Once these votes are finished, which could be by spring, the panel will submit its final proposal to three other committees of geologists whose votes will either make the Anthropocene official or reject it.

工作小組成員周六完成關於細節的一系列內部投票中的第一場，其中包括他們認為人類世的確切開始時間。這些投票完成後，可能是在春季，該小組將向其他三個地質學家委員會提交最終提案，他們的投票不是讓人類世變為正式名稱，就是予以否決。

Sixty percent of each committee will need to approve the group’s proposal for it to advance to the next. If it fails in any of them, the Anthropocene might not have another chance to be ratified for years.

該小組提案在每個委員會都需要有60%的人批准，才能進入下一個委員會。若在其中任何一個闖關失敗，人類世可能在數年內都沒機會獲得批准。

If it makes it all the way, though, geology’s amended timeline would officially recognize that humankind’s effects on the planet had been so consequential as to bring the previous chapter of Earth’s history to a close. It would acknowledge that these effects will be discernible in the rocks for millenniums.

不過，如果一切順利，經過修訂的地質年代表將正式承認，人類對地球影響是如此重大，導致地球歷史的上一章遭到終結。它將承認，這些影響將在幾千年的岩石中明顯可見。

“I teach the history of science — you know, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo,” said Francine McCarthy, an earth scientist at Brock University in Canada and member of the working group. “We’re actually doing it,” she said. “We’re living the history of science.”

加拿大布魯克大學地球科學家、工作小組成員法蘭欣．麥卡錫說：「我教科學史，也就是我們聽過的哥白尼、克卜勒、伽利略。」她說：「我們實際上正在寫歷史。我們活在科學史中。」

文／Raymond Zhong　譯／陳韋廷

說文解字看新聞

【張佑生】

本文主題是地質學（Geology）。地質學家以宙（eon）、代（era）、紀（period）、世（epoch）標誌地球演進的時間。我們目前所處的時期是顯生宙（Phanerozoic Eon）的新生代（Cenozoic Era）第四紀（Quaternary Period）的全新世（Holocene Epoch），始於1萬1700年前；第四紀則始於258萬8000年前。

Anthropocene Epoch（人類世）一詞指人類活動的影響重大到開始重塑環境，包括地表、大氣、海洋。這個詞在1980年代末期由美國生物學家Eugene Stoermer所創，Anthropocene源自希臘文，一般認定「人類世」起點是1950年。

兩個單字值得討論，一是deliberate，說的是做出重要決定前仔細思考或討論，陪審團認定被告有罪與否前的「審議」過程用這個字，介詞on/about/over均可。另外是consequential，通常放在名詞前面，比較白話的同義詞是important或significant：a consequential and ground-breaking study。

紐時賞析／阿富汗洪災災民道盡一無所有心聲

2022-08-30 13:49 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/6567575

紐時賞析

阿富汗11歲少年穆塔巴父親的工具行被洪水淹沒，他和同伴試圖挖掘有無剩餘可用之物。（紐約時報）

‘I Have Nothing Left’: Flooding Adds to Afghanistan’s Crises

「一無所有」：洪災惡化阿富汗危機

As heavy rains poured down on his village in eastern Afghanistan around 11 a.m. Monday, Meya, a 57-year-old farmer, gathered his wife and daughters and rushed from their small home toward the safety of the mountains. Looking back, he saw a thunderous wave of water tearing through the village — and his wife being swept away in the storm.

周一上午11時許，傾盆大雨下在阿富汗東部村莊，57歲農民梅亞帶著妻子和女兒，從他們的小房子衝向安全的山區。回頭一看，他見到雷鳴般洪水撕裂村莊，他的妻子在暴風雨中被沖走。

“At that moment I completely lost control,” said Meya, who goes by one name.

「那一刻，我完全失去控制」，名字只有一個字的梅亞說道。

Days later, as he and his neighbors salvaged what they could from the wreckage, Meya stared at his destroyed village in dismay. His wife had drowned. His house was destroyed. His two cows and three goats were killed. His jewelry and all of his cash — around $400 — were washed away in the flood.

幾天後，當他和他的鄰居們從廢墟中盡可能搶救東西時，梅亞沮喪地盯著他被摧毀的村莊。他的妻子淹死了。他的房子毀了。他的兩頭牛和三隻山羊死了。他的珠寶和大約四百美元的所有現金都被洪水沖走了。

Over the past week, flash floods across eastern, central and southern Afghanistan have killed at least 43 people and injured 106 more, according to Mohammad Nasim Haqqani, a spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Disaster Management.

阿富汗災害管理部發言人哈卡尼表示，過去一周，阿富汗東部、中部和南部的暴洪已造成至少43人喪生以及106人受傷。

The floods’ toll, local officials say, is likely to rise as more bodies are discovered. Around 790 homes have been damaged or destroyed in the flooding, which has affected nearly 4,000 families, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

當地官員說，隨著更多屍體被發現，洪水造成的傷亡可能會增加。根據聯合國人道主義事務協調廳的數據，大約790棟房屋在洪水中受損或被毀，近4000個家庭受影響。

The flooding offered the latest blow to Afghanistan, which has been seized by an economic collapse and a spate of natural disasters and deadly terrorist attacks in recent months.

洪水給阿富汗帶來最新打擊，近幾個月來，阿富汗因經濟崩潰、一連串天災與致命的恐怖攻擊而陷入困境。

Around half the country’s 39 million people are facing life-threatening food insecurity, according to the United Nations. An earthquake in June in eastern Afghanistan killed around 1,000 people and destroyed the homes of thousands more. The latest terrorist attack — on a mosque in the capital, Kabul, on Wednesday — killed at least 21 people and wounded 33 others, officials said.

聯合國指出，阿富汗3900萬人口中，約有一半面臨危及生命的糧食不安全問題。今年6月，阿富汗東部發生地震，造成約1000人喪生，數以千計的人家園被毀。官員們指出，首都喀布爾一座清真寺周三發生的最新一起恐怖攻擊，造成至少21人死亡，另有33人受傷。

The back-to-back crises have tested the Taliban’s ability to provide security and badly needed emergency assistance even as their government slides further into pariah state status. The Taliban’s decision to close girls’ secondary schools indefinitely in March, and the public revelation earlier this month that the Taliban had been sheltering al-Qaida’s leader in Kabul, have increasingly alienated the country from Western donors despite the worsening humanitarian crisis.

接連的危機考驗神學士的能力，他們必須提供安全和急需的緊急援助，即便他們的政府正進一步落入「被排斥國家」狀態。神學士決定在今年3月無限期關閉女子中學，以及神學士在喀布爾庇護凱達組織領導人的消息本月稍早公開揭露，使得阿富汗與西方捐助國日益疏遠，儘管人道主義危機不斷惡化。

文／Yaqoob Akbary, Christina Goldbaum, Kiana Hayeri　譯／陳韋廷

說文解字看新聞

【陳韋廷】

阿富汗近來面臨地震、暴洪與恐攻等天災人禍挑戰，加上外國援助減少，當地人正遭遇前所未見的人道危機，文中flash flood即指「暴洪」，表示短時間突然發生的洪水，flash mob是「快閃的群眾」。引發洪水的動詞可用cause/bring/trigger a flood。洪災劫後餘生可說survive a flood；慘遭洪災肆虐可用be devastated by, be hit by, be ravaged by a flood（floods）。

Wreckage指沉船、出事車輛等的殘骸，是不可數名詞，非要描述數量時可用：Pieces of wreckage were found ten miles away from the scene of the explosion。

首段動詞片語pour down表示「雨傾盆而下」，俚語offer a blow to是「打擊或不幸」，動詞offer可用deliver, give, land, strike等單字替代，遭受的動詞可用receive或take。A spate of則指短時間大量發生的同類事件，通常是壞事：a spate of bombings/thefts/violence。

紐時賞析／影響心理健康看不見的全球暖化代價

2022-04-27 16:07 聯合報／紐時賞析

https://udn.com/news/story/6904/6260390

氣候變遷

美國非營利組織「保育老鷹」創辦人坦納走在蒙大拿州西部的山林間，身為獵人的他也致力在氣候變遷中保護物種。（紐約時報）

看不見的全球暖化代價

The Unseen Toll of a Warming World Experts and psychologists are racing to understand how a volatile, unpredictable planet shapes our minds and mental health. In February, a major new study of climate change highlighted the mental health effects for the first time, saying that anxiety and stress from a changing climate were likely to increase in the coming years.

專家和心理學家正加速想要了解，一個劇烈變化且無法預測的星球如何形塑我們的心智和心理健康。在2月，新的一項氣候變遷重要研究首度強調心理健康的影響，它指出變遷中氣候造成的焦慮和壓力未來幾年可能增加。

In addition to those who have lost their homes to floods and megafires, millions have endured record-breaking heat waves. The crisis also hits home in subtle, personal ways — withered gardens, receding lakeshores and quiet walks without the birdsong that once accompanied them.

除了那些在洪水和大火中失去家園的人，還有數百萬人曾經歷破紀錄的熱浪。這個危機也以微小、個人化的方式打擊家庭；枯萎的花園，後退中的湖岸，還有曾經相伴現在卻沒有的鳥鳴的寂寥散步。

To understand what the effects of climate change feel like in America today, we listened to hundreds of people. In cities already confronting the long-term effects of climate change, and in drought-scarred ranches and rangeland, many are trying to cope with

the strains of an increasingly precarious future. As temperatures rise, extreme weather events will become more and more common.

為了解今日在美國，氣候變遷的影響是何種光景，我們聽取數百人的想法。在已經對抗氣候變遷長期影響的都市，還有因旱災受害的牧場和放牧地，許多人正嘗試應對一連串益發不穩定的未來。當氣溫上升之際，極端天氣事件將愈來愈常見。

The feelings are complex.

大家的感受相當複雜。

Some people grieve the loss of serene hiking trails that have been engulfed by wildfire smoke while others no longer find the same joy or release from nature. Some are seeking counseling. Others are harnessing their anxiety for change by protesting or working to slow the damage.

有些人對被野火煙霧吞沒的寧靜健行步道消失覺得感傷，也有些人再也找不到在大自然的相同喜悅或放鬆。有些人尋求諮商，也有些人利用自己的焦慮轉為抗議或投入減緩損害工作。

“This is becoming a No. 1 threat to mental health,” said Britt Wray, a Stanford University researcher and author of “Generation Dread,” a forthcoming book about grappling with climate distress. “It can make day-to-day life incredibly hard to go on.”

「這已成為心理健康的頭號威脅」，史丹福大學研究者雷伊說，他在即將出版的新書「憂慮世代」（暫譯）提到處理氣候導致的憂慮，「它可能讓日常生活很難過下去。」

Psychologists and therapists say the distress of a changing climate can cause fleeting anxiety for some people but trigger much darker thoughts for others. In a 2020 survey, more than half of Americans reported feeling anxious about the climate’s effect on their mental health, and more than two-thirds said they were anxious about how climate change would affect the planet.

心理學家和治療師說，氣候變遷的煩惱對一些人可能會造成短暫焦慮，但對其他人可能會刺激出更黑暗的念頭。在2020年一項調查中，超過半數美國人表示，對於氣候變遷影響他們的心理健康感到焦慮，而超過三分之二的人說，他們對氣候變遷會如何影響地球感到憂心。

Young people say they are especially upset.

年輕人說，他們覺得特別不安。

A survey of people 16 to 25 in 10 countries published in The Lancet found that three-quarters were frightened of the future. More than half said humanity was doomed. Some feel betrayed by older generations and leaders. They say they feel angry but helpless as they watch people in power fail to act swiftly.

一項訪問10個國家16至25歲民眾、刊載於「刺胳針」期刊的調查發現，四分之三的人對未來感到驚恐，過半數說人類難逃毀滅。有些人感覺被年長世代和領袖背叛。他們說，眼看著有權力的人未能迅速行動，感到憤怒卻無助。

Almost 40% of young people say they are hesitant about having children. If nature feels this unmoored today, some ask, why bring children into an even grimmer future?

將近40%年輕人說，對於生小孩感到遲疑。有些人問，如果現在的自然如此失序，為何還要把孩子帶到一個更令人憂心的未來？

文／Sarah Kerr, Noah Throop, Jack Healy, Aidan Gardiner and Rebecca Lieberman 譯／莊蕙嘉

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【莊蕙嘉】

本版曾多次選譯氣候變遷的相關文章，氣候變遷影響心理健康的主題則是首見。文中用了多個意義相近的詞來描述人類對氣候變遷的感受，包括stress、anxious、distress、upset、grim等，用以形容壓力、焦慮、煩惱、不安、憂心等各種情緒。

大環境的變化使得每天的日常（day-to-day）生活更形艱難，形容詞通常放在名詞前面。類似的複合字還有back-to-back，只能放在名詞前面，例如3月24日北約、G7和歐盟接連舉行的峰會。接連多場運動賽事會則會說back-to-back games，某些台灣體育新聞播報則慣用「背靠背」來稱之。

「一對一」可用one-on-one，例如one-on-one interview；打籃球的盯人防守是one-on-one defense；美國搖滾二人組Hall & Oates有首名曲就叫做One On One。若用one-to-one則可說Interviews will be on a one-to-one basis. one-by-one是「一個接一個」的意思。

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