Climate Change and Health in Latin America

Climate change has the potential to create devastating conditions across the globe. Scientists have predicted a myriad of repercussions, from rising sea levels to increased presence and severity of natural disasters. It is easy to see the connection between these drastic conditions and deteriorating health internationally. Across Latin America, especially in years of El Niño, the region will experiment higher precipitation rates and temperatures (Diaz & Markgraf, 2000). Yet, climate change is unlikely to impact regions equally. Tropical and warm climates are likely to experience the greatest repercussions around agriculture, infectious diseases, and natural disasters. In the coming century, Latin America will likely face some of the harshest conditions resulting from global warming, leading to drastic consequences for the region’s overall health.

Current agricultural practices are very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and increasing temperatures. Globally, scientists have calculated that with climate change, food production will deteriorate, crop and meat prices will increase, and the consumption of cereals will fall, resulting in malnutrition (Nelson et al., 2009). Projections estimate a loss of about 10 percent of maize production internationally, with Latin America and Africa bearing the largest burden of this loss (Jones & Thornton, 2003). The impact of this disproportionate loss in Latin America will cripple local economies, leave many unemployed, and result in increasing food prices. Yet, in terms of health, the shortage of food and malnutrition are perhaps the most troubling consequences of decreased production. While in the past century, many countries in Latin America have made tremendous progress away from malnutrition and undernourishment, climate change’s impacts on agriculture could have the ability to set back these improvements. Malnutrition can cause a wide range of negative health impacts, from increases in infant mortality to impeded psychological and emotional development (Gillespie, 2003).

Beyond the impact of agricultural production losses, climate change will result in an increased geographical scope of infectious diseases. Vector borne diseases will be able to spread more rapidly and further with climate change. These conditions, from malaria to leishmaniasis, will become endemic in larger regions as their vectors thrive in warmer climates (Rodríguez-Morales, 2009). For example, we have observed the recent presence of malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in parts of Argentina where it had never before been able to exist (Githeko, 2000). Overall, the Hadley Centre, a climate prediction group, predicted that in South America the number of people at risk year-round for malaria infection will grow from 25 million in 2020 to 50 million by 2080 (Githeko, 2000). Dengue has similar prospects, with large estimated increases in transmission and geographical scope (Githeko, 2000). This is further indicated in Figure 2, illustrating the growing presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, in countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, and Colombia. Other neglected tropical diseases such as Chagas, Schistosomiasis, hantaviruses, leishmaniasis, and river blindness are all associated with warm or rainy climates, placing them at risk of spreading as local climates change across Central and South America, especially in years of El Niño (Magrin et al, 2014). These populations facing diseases that were never before existent in their communities will be especially vulnerable and susceptible to infection and severe symptoms. Beyond the infectious diseases, rates of cardiorespiratory conditions as well as atherosclerosis, pregnancy-related outcomes, cancer, cognitive deficit, otitis, diabetes and chronic kidney failure are also likely to increase, as air pollution and heat waves becomes more common and severe (Rodríguez-Morales, 2009, Magrin et al, 2014). This effect will be more pronounced in urban areas, where about 80 percent of Latin Americans live (“Urbanization in Latin America,” 2014). Latin America is home to the largest proportion of urban dwellers globally, and this population is expected to increase to 90 percent in 2050 (“Urbanization in Latin America,” 2014). In cities such as São Paolo, Mexico City, and Rio de Janeiro, which already face air pollution and heat waves, these conditions will only become much more severe and widespread in the coming decades.

However, we have yet to discuss the most publicized consequence of climate change: natural disasters. In recent years, we have seen severe droughts, heat waves, wildfires, floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes, such as Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico (Nel & Righarts, 2008). Such crises are only expected to increase in number and severity in the coming decades, due to changing weather patterns from climate change. Natural disasters are currently estimated to cost $901 million annually internationally (Caruso, 2017). This number reflects the profound effect increased natural disasters could have on human wellbeing. In the short term, these natural disasters often cripple local infrastructure and limit access to food, medicine, and safe and reliable water, resulting in severe worsening of health outcomes (Hurlburt & Gupta, 2016). In the long term, however, natural disasters can result in debilitated health systems, broken economies, and weakened educational infrastructure (Caruso, 2017). A severe natural disaster can leave its impact for generations.

In Brazil, extreme weather has been associated with increased rates of depression, psychological distress, mania, and bipolar disorder (Magrin et al, 2014). Additionally, recent research has observed the lingering effects of natural disasters on child development and future outcomes in terms of health, education, employment, and fertility (Caruso, 2017). These disasters impose not only a profound impact at an individual level, but also have been demonstrated to precipitate civic unrest and violence (Nel & Righarts, 2008). Increasing prevalence of natural disasters across the continent will undoubtedly result in worsening health conditions for all.

Unless drastic action is taken against climate change in the next couple of decades, Latin America can expect to see deteriorating health outcomes across the region. The Pan American Health Organization (2017) currently recommends reducing emissions and creating more resilient and environmentally friendly health care facilities, yet very few institutions are making significant progress towards these recommendations. While climate change will affect the entire globe, Latin America’s position as a place of endemic vector borne diseases, higher predicted risk of agricultural losses, and regular natural disasters places it at most risk to these specific outcomes of global warming. If left unaddressed, these consequences could cripple the healthcare infrastructure and advancement from the last century.

Related Articles

• Disaster Preparedness in the Health Sector
• Healthcare in Puerto Rico: Before and After Hurricane Maria
• Brazilian National School Feeding Program
• Malaria in Latin America Today

Additional Resources

Barclay, E. (2008). Is climate change affecting dengue in the americas? Lancet (London, England), 371(9617), 973-4. Retrieved from https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(08)60435-3/fulltext?dgcid=recommender_referral_trendmd.

Bury, J., et. al. New Geographies of Water and Climate Change in Peru: Coupled Natural and Social Transformations in the Santa River Watershed. (2013). Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(2). Retrieved from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00045608.2013.754665.

Hall, A. (2011). Getting REDD-y: Conservation and Climate Change in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 46(4), 184-210. Retrieved from http://muse.jhu.edu/article/457008.

References

Caruso, G. (2017). The legacy of natural disasters: The intergenerational impact of 100 years of disasters in Latin America. Journal of Development Economics, 127, 209-233.

Diaz, H., & Markgraf, V. (2000). El niño and the southern oscillation : Multiscale variability and global and regional impacts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (2000).

Gillespie, S., McLachlan, M., Shrimpton, R., World Bank. Human Development Network, & UNICEF. (2003). Combating malnutrition : Time to act (Health, nutrition, and population series). Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/152421468336074510/Combating-malnutrition-time-to-act.

Githeko, A., Lindsay, S., Confalonieri, U., & Patz, J. (2000). Climate change and vector-borne diseases: A regional analysis. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78(9), 1136-1136.

Hurlbert, M., & Gupta, J. (2016). Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: Policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood. Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 36(2), 339-56.

Jones, P., & Thornton, P. (2003). The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change, 13 (1).

Magrin, G., Marengo, J., et. al. (2014). Central and South America. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Moreno, A. (2006). Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers, effects, and policies. Regional Environmental Change, 6(3), 157–164.

Nel, P., & Righarts, M. (2008). Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52(1), 159-185.

Nelson, G., & International Food Policy Research Institute. (2009). Climate change : Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation (Food policy report). Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/rome2007/docs/Impact_on_Agriculture_and_Costs_of_Adaptation.pdf.

Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). (2017). Climate Change and Health. Retrieved from https://www.paho.org/salud-en-las-americas-2017/?p=53.

Patz, J., & Kovats, R. (2002). Hotspots in climate change and human health. BMJ, 325(7372), 1094-1094.

Rodríguez-Morales, A. (2009). Cambio climático y salud humana: Enfermedades transmisibles y América Latina. Revista Peruana De Medicina Experimental Y Salud Pública, 26(2), 268-269.

Urbanization in Latin America. (2014). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/articles/urbanization-in-latin-america.