Challenge 2

• Data weeks 1 - 8

• New hospitalizations per week per 100,000 people.

• Data generated by a hidden model with a fixed set of parameters.

• The model may have more than one infectious agent. (Similar to Influenza A and B)

• Data is expressed to the nearest tenth of a person.

• Uncertainty has been added to the data as well as a background level of infection.

• Predict forward 4 weeks.

Data Release 1: Predict forward 4 weeks (9-12)

week,hospitalizations_per_100k,r0

1,0.4

2,0.4

3,0.5

4,0.4

5,0.4

6,0.4

7,0.4

8,0.5

Data Release 2: Predict forward 4 weeks (13-16)

week,hospitalizations_per_100k,r0

1,0.4

2,0.4

3,0.5

4,0.4

5,0.4

6,0.4

7,0.4

8,0.5

9,1.1

10,5.5

11,18.1

12,27

Data Release 3: Predict forward 4 weeks (17-20)

week,hospitalizations_per_100k,r0

1,0.4

2,0.4

3,0.5

4,0.4

5,0.4

6,0.4

7,0.4

8,0.5

9,1.1

10,5.5

11,18.1

12,27

13,15.3

14,10.1

15,7.6

16,10

Data Release 4: Predict forward 4 weeks (21-24)

week,hospitalizations_per_100k,r0

1,0.4

2,0.4

3,0.5

4,0.4

5,0.4

6,0.4

7,0.4

8,0.5

9,1.1

10,5.5

11,18.1

12,27

13,15.3

14,10.1

15,7.6

16,10

17,12.9

18,8.2

19,5.9

20,2.8

Final Solution Data Release:

week,hospitalizations_per_100k,r0

1,0.4

2,0.4

3,0.5

4,0.4

5,0.4

6,0.4

7,0.4

8,0.5

9,1.1

10,5.5

11,18.1

12,27

13,15.3

14,10.1

15,7.6

16,10

17,12.9

18,8.2

19,5.9

20,2.8

21,4.5

22,2

23,1

24,0.8