Apply and explain the concepts of probability to interpret data and make informed decisions to solve mathematical and real-world problems.
Anchor Standard 10 emphasizes probability.
Students will use a variety of models to explore probability events.
Classify probability events involving dice, coins, spinners with equal and unequal partitionings and blocks in a bag as impossible, certain, probable, not probable, likely, unlikely and equally likely.
Use a number line to connect the values of 0 to impossible and 1 to certain. Informally explore likely, unlikely and equally likely using a number line.
Instead of simply using blocks in a bag to investigate probability, utilize natural items found by students! Send students on a collection mission: to find acorns, rocks, pinecones, leaves, etc. Then, add these items in specific quantities to your bag, potentially conducting your lesson outside as well.
Take note of what the weather forecast, farmer's almanac, or the Weatherguide calendar predicts for daily temperatures, precipitations, etc. Compare this to the actual weather that students observe. How often is the forecast correct? How often is it incorrect?
Possible Extension: Your class can measure rainfall, snowfall, and wind using relatively inexpensive tools. This data can also be submitted to a variety of citizen science programs! See Anchor Standard 9 for more details.