Journal Article
Matsuo, Akitaka, and Kentaro Fukumoto. 2025. "Legislators’ Sentiment Analysis Supervised by Legislators." Political Science Research and Methods [Open Access] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2025. "The Effect of Candidate List Position on Vote Share: Improving Internal Validity and Expanding Scope Conditions." Social Science Quarterly 106: e70009. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2025. "Not Monotonically Correlated, But Dependent: A Family of Normal Mode Copulas." Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods 54(20): 6512–6526. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Takahiro Tabuchi. 2025. "The Rally ‘round the Flag Effect in Third Parties: The Case of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 35(1): 171–180. [Open Access] [Dataverse] (published online in 2023)
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2024. "Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence." Political Analysis 32(4): 417-430. [Open Access] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Kyosuke Kikuta. 2024. "After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes." Political Behavior 46: 2357–2377. [Open Access] [Dataverse] [Japanese]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2023. "What If Neither Randomized Control Trials nor Public Voting Records Are Available in a Get-out-the-vote Field Experiment?" Research & Politics 10(4): published online [Open Access] [Dataverse]
Yoneoka, Daisuke, Akifumi Eguchi, Kentato Fukumoto, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Takahiro Tabuchi, Hiroaki Miyata, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Kenji Shibuya, and Shuhei Nomura. 2022. "Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 Incidence in Japan: A Synthetic Control Approach." BMJ Open 12(9):e061444. [Open Access] [Replication Materials]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2022. "Nonignorable Attrition in Pairwise Randomized Experiments." Political Analysis 30(1): 132-141. [Open Access] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Charles T. McClean, and Kuninori Nakagawa. 2021. "No Causal Effect of School Closures in Japan on the Spread of COVID-19 in Spring 2020." Nature Medicine 27 (12): 2111-2119. [Open Access] [Dataverse] [Behind the Paper] [Japanese]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Yusaku Horiuchi, and Shoichiro Tanaka. 2020. "Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment on Political Budget Cycles." Electoral Studies 67: 102206. [Open Access] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Andreas Beger, and Will H. Moore. 2019. "Bayesian Modeling for Overdispersed Event-Count Time Series." Behaviormetrika 46(2): 435-452. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Hirofumi Miwa. 2018. "Share the Name, Share the Vote: A Natural Experiment of Name Recognition." Journal of Politics 80(2): 726-730. [Paper] [Dataverse] [Data Preparation Files (which is not on the Dataverse)]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2016. "Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment." Electoral Studies 44: 192-202. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Akitaka Matsuo. 2015. "The Effects of Election Proximity on Participatory Shirking: The Staggered-Term Chamber as a Laboratory." Legislative Studies Quarterly 40(4): 599-625. [Paper] [Dataverse] [Appendix]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2015. "What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Copula-based Ordered Event History Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome." Journal of American Statistical Association 110(509): 83-92. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Mikitaka Masuyama. 2015. "Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis, Matching, and Average Treatment Effects" Japanese Journal of Political Science 16(1): 33-51. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro (Guest Editor). 2015. "Introduction to Special Issue: Who Does or Does Not Respond to Whom or What in a Democracy? The Case of Japan" Japanese Journal of Political Science 16(1): 1-4.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2011. "Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment." American Political Science Review 105(3): 586-603. [Paper] [Dataverse] [Japanese]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2009. "Systematically Dependent Competing Risks and Strategic Retirement." American Journal of Political Science 53(3): 740-759. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2008. "Legislative Production in Comparative Perspective: Cross Sectional Study of 42 Countries and Time-Series Analysis of the Japan Case." Japanese Journal of Political Science 9(1): 1-19. [Paper] [Dataverse]
Book Chapter
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2020. "Duration Analysis." In Luigi Curini and Robert J. Franzese Jr. eds. The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations. London: Sage, pp. 659-678.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2015. "Game Theory." In Mazzoleni, Gianpietro, Kevin Barnhurst, Ken'ichi Ikeda, Rousiley Maia, Hartmut Wessler, eds. 3 vols. The International Encyclopedia of Political Communication. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 419-423. [Paper]
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2011. "Legislators." In Japanese Politics Today: From Karaoke to Kabuki Democracy, eds. Takashi Inoguchi and Purnendra Jain. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 51-70.
Book Review
The State of Civil Society in Japan. Edited by Frank J. Schwartz and Susan J. Pharr. Journal of East Asian Studies 6(1): 313-315. (2006)