Embedded Files
Application of secondary sources
Application of secondary sources
Lesson goals
Lesson goals
Draw conclusions and make predictions in regards to the future of Minnamurra River's coastal ecosystems.
Lesson description
Lesson description
Students integrate their primary data with appropriate secondary sources and models and apply their critical thinking skills in order to predict future implications and risks to Minnamurra River's coastal ecosystems under climate change and sea level rise.
Estimated time
Estimated time
60 minutes
Supporting materials
Supporting materials
Outcomes
Outcomes
Working Scientifically - Analysing Data and Information
Working Scientifically - Analysing Data and Information
Analyses and evaluates primary and secondary data and information B
Derive trends, patterns and relationships in data and information
Assess error, uncertainty and limitations in data
Assess the relevance, accuracy, validity and reliability of primary and secondary data and suggest improvements to investigations
What effect will sea level rise have on Minnamurra River’s coastal ecosystems by 2100?
What effect will sea level rise have on Minnamurra River’s coastal ecosystems by 2100?
Analysis of the primary data collected from your investigations at the Minnamurra River is not enough for you to be able to address the given inquiry question - What effect will sea level rise have on Minnamurra River’s coastal ecosystems by 2100? Your investigation would need to be repeated over a long period of time (at least 10 years) before any clear patterns of vegetation change within zones could be observed.
This is not ideal given how long it would take before results are seen, so further investigation is required using data and information from secondary sources.
2018 - 2020 population assessment
2018 - 2020 population assessment
Sample low tide quadrat survey
Sample low tide quadrat survey
Sample high tide quadrat survey
Sample high tide quadrat survey
Sample transect survey
Sample transect survey
Workbook instruction
Workbook instruction
Use the graphs and supporting material to complete pages 2 and 3 in Lesson 8 worksheet.
University of Wollongong study on Minnamurra River's intertidal ecosystems
University of Wollongong study on Minnamurra River's intertidal ecosystems
A 2012 research project conducted by the University of Wollongong has confirmed that water levels of Minnamurra River have already increased and the ecosystems are changing in response.
A series of aerial photographs from 1949 to 2011 were converted to vegetation maps, allowing the researchers to observe a pattern of change to the vegetation communities.
Aerial photograph of the Minnamurra mangrove and saltmarsh wetland taken in 2011 (left, courtesy Nearmap), and GIS polygon mapping of the vegetation (Oliver et al., 2012).
Grey Mangrove propagules establishing in saltmarsh community along Minnamurra River.
Sea level rise and intertidal ecosystems
Sea level rise and intertidal ecosystems
Whenever change occurs to an ecosystem, it must be in response to an environmental pressure. The University of Wollongong researchers believe the changes they observed in their 2012 study are in response to sea level rise, this is a theory supported with worldwide evidence.
When a vegetation community is placed under pressure, it will respond in one of three ways depending on what is possible - adapt, migrate or die.
If the pressure occurs too quickly, there is no time for the plant community to develop new adaptations. It must rely on what it already has to survive.
If coastal squeeze is evident, migration away from the pressure is not an option and the plant community will not survive.
If the plant community does not already have the necessary adaptations to cope with the changes it is vulnerable to being outcompeted by other species and it may not survive.
Figure 2 - Model Two - showing the distribution of vegetation zones through time from 2011 to 2100 using the IPCC’s ‘worst case’ sea-level rise scenario of 98cm.
Modelling programs to predict future change
Modelling programs to predict future change
The University of Wollongong researchers used modelling programs to project what the distribution of plant communities might be by the year 2100 if sea levels rise by the (then current) predicted level of 98cm.
The predicted results suggest a dramatic change in the vegetation along the Minnamurra River by 2100.
Workbook instruction
Workbook instruction
The above series of mapped aerial photographs and modelled projections due to sea level rise are in your Lesson 8 worksheet. Use them to complete questions 4 and 5 on pages 4-5.
Mitigating the effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems along the Minnamurra River
Mitigating the effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems along the Minnamurra River
Your preliminary research findings, combined with photographic and modelling projection evidence from the University of Wollongong 2012 study have supported the conclusion that sea level rise will dramatically affect the plant communities along the Minnamurra River by 2100.
Ideally, such evidence would instigate a mitigation response so as to minimise the predicted impacts and ensure the coastal ecosystems along the river remain intact and protected into the future.
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