Sources of Uncertainty

This site is arranged around three sources of uncertainty: people, conditions, and terrain. Each AIARE 2 course is unique, as the combination of the other people on your course, the conditions that present themselves and the terrain is always changing. The AIARE 2 course can be taken over and over again, as there is always an opportunity to encounter new conditions, explore new terrain, and even take with a group of your friends or strangers. Each of these different variables presents a different opportunity to learn new tools to address uncertainty and practice them with coaching from an experienced professional.

Why is having lots of ways to use these tools so important? If risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives, targeting uncertainty is a way to manage risk. Having more tools gives you more ways to do this.

Put another way, if the amount of acceptable risk remains constant, then the combination of uncertainty and danger due to the group, conditions, and terrain must also remain constant.

The size of the risk “weight” on the scale remains more or less the same. We balance it by changing the size of the group, terrain, and/or conditions “weights.” The size of the weight is determined by both the hazards that particular category contributes in addition to the amount of uncertainty.

Since we can’t impact the hazard due to the conditions, and our tools to impact the uncertainty are limited, the primary things we can impact this risk balance is who we choose to go out with and where we choose to go. On the AIARE 1 course the high amount of uncertainty with the conditions overall meant that the terrain was the primary tool you had to manage your risk and often time that meant unless it was the very best of conditions, you were having to choose simple terrain. An example might look like this:

This website along with your AIARE 2 course will introduce tools that can help you reduce uncertainty with the group, terrain, or conditions so that you can be more targeted and have more options.

For example, if you have your eyes set on a really big objective, the size of the terrain “weight” on the scale is very large. This means you need to have the group and conditions weights be as small as possible. You might put together a really dialed team you communicate and work really well together with along with waiting for the most favorable low danger conditions you have a lot of familiarity working with.

Conversely, maybe you’re going to a new location, with conditions you are less familiar with, such as traveling to another state that has a continental snowpack whereas you spend most of your winter in a maritime snowpack. Your terrain uncertainty is high because it is a new venue, your conditions uncertainty is high, so you are left to choose simple terrain and maybe have a well known and familiar group in order to keep the risk constant.

Each AIARE 2 course is different and is dependent on where you are, the conditions you have on your course, and who you choose to take the course with. Tools you might learn to impact the size of the weights might include: