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Ian Nicholson
How can I manage uncertainty from conditions?
How can I manage uncertainty from conditions?
The nature of unstable snow and avalanches is that there will always be a significant amount of uncertainty about conditions that can't be reduced. Snow is a highly variable and non-homogenous material. Terrain constantly changes. The interaction between snowpack and terrain mean the variables can become almost infinite.
But there are patterns to weather conditions that lead to particular types of snowpack layering arrangements. Understanding these patterns can help you narrow down the information you should try to target when in the backcountry. This section provides a review of snowpack formation and processes that take place in the snowpack, how avalanche problems can help you target information gather, and finally serves as a reference on making high-quality snowpack observations.
Revisit this section during and after your course. On your course, you'll learn how you can acquire more information, verify the forecast, and gain fluency with weather and snowpack patterns by targeting specific information and actively testing your hypotheses. Keeping track of the conditions throughout the season, ground truthing your ideas of what snowpack looks like when you go in the backcountry, summarizing your findings and sharing information with others is the best way to build your understanding of conditions and reduce your uncertainty with conditions. You'll receive practice and coaching on tools for making observations and have an opportunity to apply new skills in a new environment. These tools were introduced on the AIARE 1. This course provides you the opportunity to gain fluency that comes from experience and mentored practice.
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