Matthew Parry is an Associate Professor in Statistics at the University of Otago Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka. He teaches into all levels of the Statistics and Data Science programmes at Otago. His current research interests involve predicting geomagnetic storm events, understanding the role of DNA methylation in cancer, and modelling the spread of disease. Matt is also a cricket tragic who coaches a number of cricket teams and lives vicariously through the exploits of his children. 

How I learned to stop worrying and love uncertainty

What does a forecast probability of 80% for rain tomorrow mean? What does a predicted probability of 80% for a severe geomagnetic storm event in the next five years mean? What about a probability of 80% that a blood sample has detected cancer? If the heart of statistics is learning from data, then quantifying uncertainty is its guts. In this talk, I will describe how I went from answering some theoretical questions to solving some practical problems, how I became a statistician along the way and how I became more comfortable with uncertainty. I will also explain how we can assess students based on their stated levels of uncertainty. For in the end, true knowledge is knowing what you don’t know, as much as it is knowing what you do know.

Lara is a Statistics teacher at John Paul College in Rotorua. Before becoming a teacher, she worked the corporate ladder, converting Japanese taste buds to Belgian chocolate, introducing beer into supermarkets at Lion Breweries and getting people hooked on more fanta flavours. The plan was to inject some spark into dry economics concepts before landing in a Year 13 Statistics class by accident. After getting hooked, lined and sunk to the bottom of the maths department, she was entrusted with the Head. Connections are at the heart of her teaching philosophy - whether it’s sparking student “aha” moments with real-life applications or weaving together the diverse talents of her team to steer through change. Be warned: Her senior students bestowed her with the “I Digress” award—so prepare for a few scenic detours along the way.

Connections
This keynote unpacks a kete of ideas in Statistics—tried, true, and (mostly) effective! We’ll tackle front-loading for Numeracy and Scholarship, dabble in sources of variation, and wrestle with data ethics. Discover why, in data visualisations, emotions lead the way and facts follow. Along the trail, expect a dash of randomness, a sprinkle of common sense, and find out why food is a dealbreaker in navigating change in education.