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Used in Alaska and Canada to assess fuel moisture level and wildfire danger.
Used in Alaska and Canada to assess fuel moisture level and wildfire danger.
Wildfires are natural in Alaska’s boreal ecosystem, but fires are growing bigger, and fire seasons are lengthening. We create fire weather outlooks for fire managers to help them prepare for upcoming fire seasons. Managers also identify the types of products needed and evaluate their effectiveness, so that we can make improvements.
We work with Alaska wildfire managers to predict the index for the coming fire season. This seasonal outlook for the build-up index is used to prepare resources and personnel.
We work with Alaska wildfire managers to predict the index for the coming fire season. This seasonal outlook for the build-up index is used to prepare resources and personnel.
The higher the Wildfire Build-Up Index, the hotter and drier the fuels. As the season progresses, the value “builds” until rain reduces it.
The index helps increase preparedness
The index helps increase preparedness
In the past, fire managers used the index to predict fire activity a few days out. Our team is now helping to provide an outlook of the build-up index months before the season starts.
To do so, seasonal weather forecast models explore how the index varies under past known weather and climate conditions. Where model predictions are consistently too wet, or too hot, the model is corrected to account for the difference. Even with these adjustments, predicting the index three months into the future remains difficult.
Model accuracy can be improved by understanding how slowly varying parts of the climate system—such as sea surface temperatures and sea ice—contribute to Alaska fire weather.
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