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Assigns one value, based on pressure in the middle atmosphere, that can be used to predict weather-related events likely to impact Alaska in the coming weeks or months.
Assigns one value, based on pressure in the middle atmosphere, that can be used to predict weather-related events likely to impact Alaska in the coming weeks or months.
Our analog forecasting technique compares the evolution of current atmospheric and sea ice conditions to those of past years, where users may have personal experience to draw from.
We are also part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, which engages in modeling, creating new products, data analysis, and scientific networks to provide user-driven forecasts.
Photo ©Christopher Miller — csmphotos.com
We are also part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, which engages in modeling, creating new products, data analysis, and scientific networks to provide user-driven forecasts.
Photo ©Christopher Miller — csmphotos.com
How the Alaska Blocking Index connects to weather
How the Alaska Blocking Index connects to weather
This tool is currently under development.
Similar to the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Alaska Blocking Index (ABI) enables forecasters to make inferences about regional weather patterns likely to occur in the coming weeks to months.
When the ABI is positive, high pressure is overhead. Storms are “blocked” from the region; clear skies and calm weather persist. When the index is negative, low pressure is overhead, driving cloudy conditions and storms.
We are working to link specific ABI values to weather-related events that people care about, such as temperature extremes, rain or snow, location of the sea ice edge, open water duration, break-up and freeze-up, and conditions linked to wildfire.
Where is the science now?
Where is the science now?
The ABI is currently defined on a monthly scale, 1948 to present. This historical record offers a way to compare ABI values to known weather, and to explore trends as well as seasonal and year-to-year variability. Future work will devine the index at a daily scale, potentially back to the mid-1800s.
Important questions to consider
Important questions to consider
What is the range and accuracy of predictions based on the ABI?
What is the link between ABI values and specific weather, and between regional to hemispheric weather patterns?
Can the Alaska Blocking index help you?
Can the Alaska Blocking index help you?
In the future, we will work with stakeholders to tailor ABI applications to the unique challenges and hazards that threaten Northern infrastructure, and impact communities and operations. These could include Bering Sea crabbers interested in predicting the location of the ice edge, or communities looking to better time contracts for snow removal.
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