current work and future directions

New environmental prediction for the North

Forecasters, climatologists, social scientists, and stakeholders are collaborating to develop new methods of weather prediction tailored to the needs of people living and working in the North.

Our goal is to enable safer and more cost-effective planning, operations, and response—to improve life in this dynamic environment. Better prediction products can reduce risk from extreme weather and environmental hazards. They can also increase economic opportunity through more accurate prediction of environmental processes.

Current work

• • Alaska Blocking Index— enables inferences about upcoming Alaska weather patterns. Learn more about the Alaska Blocking Index

  • Analog Forecasting—useful in sea ice work, seasonal fire outlooks, marine shipping, tourism, and the oil and gas industry. Learn more about analog forecasting

  • Wildfire Build-Up Index—used to assess fire danger and create seasonal fire outlooks. Learn more about the Wildfire Build-Up Index

Other work

• Improve existing forecasting and prediction products by conducting needs assessments to determine how users find, consume, and make decisions based on weather prediction products.

• Act as liaison between managers, planners, industry, and the science community to ensure that prediction products meet the unique needs of stakeholders.

We can do more—let's talk

Are you interested in collaborating on approaches to forecasting that use the best science? Do you have expertise in decision-making under uncertainty? Please get in touch.