Publications and Preprints 

Click on the title of an article for more information (links redirect within the website). An asterisk (*) indicates the corresponding author. 

PUBLICATIONS IN REFEREED/PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALS

1. Nan Chen*, Stephen Wiggins, Marios Andreou (2025). Taming Uncertainty in a Complex World: The Rise of Uncertainty Quantification — A Tutorial for Beginners. Notices of the American Mathematical Society, 72(3), March 2025 issue. https://doi.org/10.1090/noti3120. [arXiv version with Supplementary Document] [AMS Notices March 2025 issue]

2. Marios Andreou*, Nan Chen (2025). A Martingale-Free Introduction to Conditional Gaussian Nonlinear Systems. Entropy, 27(1), 2. https://doi.org/10.3390/e27010002.

3. Marios Andreou*, Nan Chen (2024). Statistical Response of ENSO Complexity to Initial Condition and Model Parameter Perturbations. Journal of Climate, 37(21), 5629–5651. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0017.1.

PREPRINTS

1. Marios Andreou*, Nan Chen (2025). Bridging prediction and attribution: Identifying forward and backward causal influence ranges using assimilative causal inference. To be submitted.

2. Marios Andreou, Nan Chen*, Erik Bollt (2025). Assimilative Causal Inference. Submitted.

3. Marios Andreou*, Nan Chen, Yingda Li (2024). An Adaptive Online Smoother with Closed-Form Solutions and Information-Theoretic Lag Selection for Conditional Gaussian Nonlinear Systems. Submitted to Journal of Nonlinear Science.

Talks and Guest Lectures

Click on the title of an article for more information (links redirect within the website).

Key: (S) = Seminar Talk | (C) = Conference/Symposium/Workshop Talk | (G) = Guest Lecture | (M) = Miscellaneous

1. (S) Harnessing the Conditional Gaussian Nonlinear System Framework for Efficient Adaptive-Lag Online Smoothing and Causal Inference. CEREA-CERMICS Joint Applied Mathematics Seminar. Oral presentation. September 9, 2025. École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), Paris, France. [Presentation Slides (Handout)]

2. (C) Assimilative Causal Inference. SCALES Conference 2025. Oral presentation. September, 2025, Mainz, Germany. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Erik Bollt.)

3. (S) Taming Uncertainty in a Complex World: The Rise of Uncertainty Quantification — A Tutorial for Beginners. Math Department Applied Analysis Seminar. Oral presentation. April 15, 2025. Brigham Young University (BYU), Provo, UT, USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Stephen Wiggins.) [Presentation Slides (Handout)]

4. (G) An Introduction to Conditional Gaussian Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. Math 513R: Advanced Topics in Applied Math (Data Assimilation). Oral presentation (chalk talk). April 14, 2025. Brigham Young University (BYU), Provo, UT, USA.

5. (C) An Adaptive Online Smoother with Closed-Form Solutions and Information-Theoretic Lag Selection for Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. 2025 Data Science Research Bazaar. Poster talk. March 19, 2025. Madison, WI, USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Yingda Li.)

6. (C) An Adaptive Online Smoother with Closed-Form Solutions and Information-Theoretic Lag Selection for Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. 2025 AOSS Community Poster Reception. Poster talk. February 10, 2025. Madison, WI, USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Yingda Li.)

7. (C) An Efficient Online Smoother and Sampling Algorithm for Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. SS107: Recent Advances in Data Assimilation with Machine Learning. 14th AIMS Conference. Oral presentation. December 20, 2024. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Yingda Li.) [Presentation Slides (Handout)]

8. (C) Statistical Response of ENSO Complexity to Initial Condition and Model Parameter Perturbations. OS23D: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pantropical Climate Interactions: Mechanisms, Predictability, Impacts, and Projections II Poster. AGU24. Poster talk. December 10, 2024. Washington D.C., USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen.)

9. (C) An Efficient Online Smoother and Sampling Algorithm for Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. NG13A: Advances in Data Assimilation, Data Fusion, Machine Learning, Predictability, and Uncertainty Quantification in the Geosciences III Poster. AGU24. Poster talk. December 9, 2024. Washington D.C., USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Yingda Li.)

10. (S) An Introduction to Data Assimilation and Conditional Gaussian Dynamical Systems. Graduate Applied Math Seminar (GAMS). Oral presentation (chalk talk). November 19 , 2024. University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA.

11. (C) An Efficient Online Smoother and Sampling Algorithm for Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. ANDSC 2024. Poster talk. July 2, 2024. Madrid, Spain. (Joint work with Nan Chen and Yingda Li.)

12. (C) Quantifying the Statistical Response of ENSO Diversity to Initial Value and Model Parameter Perturbations, OS53C-1193: Tropical Pacific Climate Variability: Dynamics, Teleconnections, Impacts, and Projections IV Poster. AGU23. Poster talk. December 15, 2023. San Francisco, CA, USA. (Joint work with Nan Chen.)

13. (C) Modelling the Cooking of Souvla. NG41B-0657: Efficient Data-Driven Methods for Multiscale Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification II Poster. AGU23. Poster talk. December 14, 2023. San Fransisco, CA, USA. (Joint work with Jean-Luc Thiffeault.)

14. (M) Creating an FEM solver using Galerkin's approach to conformal finite elements. Final Presentation for MAS (ΜΑΣ) 499: Independent Research. Oral presentation. May 20, 2022. University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus. (Under the guidance of Christos Xenophontos.) [Presentation Slides (Handout)]