Downstream of Lake Kegonsa
North of the outlet: Lake Kegonsa State Park
South of the outlet: La Follette County Park
Ice recreation plays a critical cultural role in cold regions. Activities such as ice fishing and ice skating rely on ice as a seasonal surface, while winter activities like cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling often use ice-covered rivers as trail crossings. These activities are rooted in traditions passed down through generations and help maintain strong cultural connections to winter landscapes while encouraging outdoor recreation.
Ice fishing communities that form around ice shanties foster social connection and a shared sense of place, while also supporting local economies and overall community well-being. Outdoor recreation on ice-covered lakes and rivers brings people together to enjoy nature, strengthening relationships and reinforcing community ties [Knoll].
Current ice thickness monitoring in the outlet area is limited. At present, neither Kegonsa State Park nor Lake Kegonsa County Park regularly monitor ice conditions on the Yahara River, leaving visitors without information about ice safety.
Recent observations show a decline in ice cover and thickness over the past two decades. Climate projections indicate that the duration of safe ice is expected to shorten by an average of 13–24 days under 1.5°–3°C warmer conditions compared to 1900–1929. Winter air temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover explain much of the variability in ice thickness across North America, with warmer winters strongly linked to thinner and less stable ice. As ice becomes less predictable, the risk to recreational users increases [Imrit, Woolway].
How do winter hydraulic conditions at the Lake Kegonsa outlet influence the stability of ice, and how does this risk change under thin, moderate, and thick ice-thickness assumptions?
Develop a simplified hydraulic model of the Lake Kegonsa outlet area using HEC-RAS to represent winter flow conditions.
Apply thin, moderate, and thick ice-cover conditions to evaluate how ice interacts with the modeled hydraulics.
Identify areas where under-ice velocities may weaken ice stability.